Sentences with phrase «increasing sea ice trend»

Not exact matches

It is one of the reasons ascribed to the increasing trend in sea ice around Antarctica.

«Relatively little is known about the state of Antarctic sea ice before continuous satellite records began in the 1970s, making it hard to understand if [the increase] is a trend.»

The only explanation that we have for the sustained downward trend in sea - ice extent is the increase in greenhouse - gas concentrations.

Here are some possible choices — in order of increasing sophistication: * All (or most) scientists agree (the principal Gore argument) * The 20th century is the warmest in 1000 years (the «hockeystick» argument) * Glaciers are melting, sea ice is shrinking, polar bears are in danger, etc * Correlation — both CO2 and temperature are increasing * Sea levels are rising * Models using both natural and human forcing accurately reproduce the detailed behavior of 20th century global temperature * Modeled and observed PATTERNS of temperature trends («fingerprints») of the past 30 years agsea ice is shrinking, polar bears are in danger, etc * Correlation — both CO2 and temperature are increasing * Sea levels are rising * Models using both natural and human forcing accurately reproduce the detailed behavior of 20th century global temperature * Modeled and observed PATTERNS of temperature trends («fingerprints») of the past 30 years agSea levels are rising * Models using both natural and human forcing accurately reproduce the detailed behavior of 20th century global temperature * Modeled and observed PATTERNS of temperature trends («fingerprints») of the past 30 years agree

Re 9 wili — I know of a paper suggesting, as I recall, that enhanced «backradiation» (downward radiation reaching the surface emitted by the air / clouds) contributed more to Arctic amplification specifically in the cold part of the year (just to be clear, backradiation should generally increase with any warming (aside from greenhouse feedbacks) and more so with a warming due to an increase in the greenhouse effect (including feedbacks like water vapor and, if positive, clouds, though regional changes in water vapor and clouds can go against the global trend); otherwise it was always my understanding that the albedo feedback was key (while sea ice decreases so far have been more a summer phenomenon (when it would be warmer to begin with), the heat capacity of the sea prevents much temperature response, but there is a greater build up of heat from the albedo feedback, and this is released in the cold part of the year when ice forms later or would have formed or would have been thicker; the seasonal effect of reduced winter snow cover decreasing at those latitudes which still recieve sunlight in the winter would not be so delayed).

So the main issue for me is that all «serious» studies show only «statistical trends» having some effects on some measurable quantities, (slight increase of average temperature, slight increase of sea level, slight decrease of northern, but not southern, sea ice,..)

Updated, July 23, 1:40 p.m. A new study of methods used to track Antarctic sea ice trends has raised important questions about whether recent increases in ice there are, to a significant extent, an illusion created by flawed analysis of data collected by a series of satellites.

WMO will issue its full Statement on the State of the Climate in 2017 in March which will provide a comprehensive overview of temperature variability and trends, high - impact events, and long - term indicators of climate change such as increasing carbon dioxide concentrations, Arctic and Antarctic sea ice, sea level rise and ocean acidification.

We interpret the split of 2013 Outlooks above and below the 4.1 level to different interpretations of the guiding physics: those who considered that observed sea ice extent in 2012 being well below the 4.1 level indicates a shift in arctic conditions, especially with regard to reduced sea ice thickness and increased sea ice mobility; and those who have estimates above 4.1 who support a return to the longer - term downward trend line (1979 - 2007).

We interpret the split of 2013 Outlooks above and below the 4.1 median to different interpretations of the guiding physics: those who considered that observed sea ice extent in 2012 being well below the 4.1 level indicates a shift in arctic conditions, especially with regard to reduced sea ice thickness and increased sea ice mobility; and those with estimates above 4.1 who support a return to the longer - term downward trend line (1979 - 2007).

«Our analyses indicate that the overall sea - ice trend is dominated by increased ice - shelf melt», the Dutch scientists report.

And not to worry, if Arctic sea ice reverses the trend and begins to increase, that will be proof of AGW too.

«despite increased observational uncertainty in the pre-satellite era, the trend in [Arctic sea ice extent] over this longer period [1953 — 2010] is more likely to be representative of the anthropogenically forced component.»

As of this writing, there is observational and modeling evidence that: 1) both annular modes are sensitive to month - to - month and year - to - year variability in the stratospheric flow (see section on Stratosphere / troposphere coupling, below); 2) both annular modes have exhibited long term trends which may reflect the impact of stratospheric ozone depletion and / or increased greenhouse gases (see section on Climate Change, below); and 3) the NAM responds to changes in the distribution of sea - ice over the North Atlantic sector.

These regional trends together yield a small increase, so studying each region will help scientists get a better grasp on the processes affecting sea ice there.

Its sea ice extent has been increasing at 0.9 % per decade (30 year trend 1979 - 2008).

Then it said «If the general positive trend in Atlantic heat input remains, winter cooling will likely be insufficient to produce ice over an increasing area, leading to further «Atlantification» of the Barents Sea.»

THERE HAS BEEN A WARMING TREND FROM THE 70s THRU THE LATE 90s,... accompanied by other changes tied to a warming trend (record low arctic sea ice extent & thickness, retreating glaciers, retreating snow lines, warming ocean surface temps, increases in sea height, de-alkalinizing oceTREND FROM THE 70s THRU THE LATE 90s,... accompanied by other changes tied to a warming trend (record low arctic sea ice extent & thickness, retreating glaciers, retreating snow lines, warming ocean surface temps, increases in sea height, de-alkalinizing ocetrend (record low arctic sea ice extent & thickness, retreating glaciers, retreating snow lines, warming ocean surface temps, increases in sea height, de-alkalinizing oceans).

... observations suggested the bears drowned in rough seas and high winds and «suggest that drowning - related deaths of polar bears may increase in the future if the observed trend of regression of pack ice and / or longer open water periods continues.»

The most definitive 30 - year P trends occur along the northern Russian border and adjacent to Hudson's Bay (> 75 % change of a wetter future), likely in response to diminished sea ice cover and resulting increase in atmospheric moisture, and in some areas of northern Africa and the Middle East (< 35 % chance of wetting, equivalent to > 65 % chance of drying; Fig. 8b).

Since the tropical oceans have flattened out and solar does have its largest impact on the tropical oceans, I would expect about the same possibly some increase in Arctic sea ice over the next decade Not a consistent increase by any means, but I doubt it will make it to the 2 mkm ^ 2 and will trend towards a 6 million km ^ 2 average which is hardly «ice free».

IPCC synthesis reports offer conservative projections of sea level increase based on assumptions about future behavior of ice sheets and glaciers, leading to estimates of sea level roughly following a linear upward trend mimicking that of recent decades.

When we assemble the broadest range of evidence within our current abilities, we see that any accelerating sea - ice melting trend in the Arctic really is a continuation (or even a deceleration) of the same trend that started at least 150 years ago, BEFORE increased human CO2 production.

Or does the background trend in Figure 3 represent the global warming «forced» signal of an ever - increasing sea ice loss, plus natural variability (Bitz)?

However, the increase in sea ice extent for 2009 does not exceed past interannual variability in a near - continuous, 30 - year downward trend in summer sea ice extent.

---- Cerrone and Fusco, 2017 http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0184.1 Compelling evidence indicates that the large increase in the SH [Southern Hemisphere] sea ice, recorded over recent years, arises from the impact of climate modes and their long — term trends.

So, if the sea ice records had actually started earlier, they probably would have shown an increasing trend.

Identify the mechanism that has caused the 38 - year cooling trend in the Southern Ocean and the increase in SH sea ice extent.

The most likely explanation for the linear trend [in sea ice decline] during the satellite era from 1979 onwards is the almost linear increase in CO2 concentration during that period.

At the same time Antarctic sea ice continues a long - term trend of increasing since 1979 (but that's another topic).

Dr Meier:» There are increasing trends in Antarctic sea ice extent, but they are fairly small and there is so much variability in the Antarctic sea ice from year to year that is difficult to ascribe any significance to the trends — they could simply be an artifact of natural variability»

But I'd bet that the increase in Arctic sea ice reported by Russian studies from the 1940s to the1970s had something to do with the cooling trend over those years, while the sea ice retreat since 1979 had something to do with the more recent warming trend there.

These trends in extreme weather events are accompanied by longer - term changes as well, including surface and ocean temperature increase over recent decades, snow and ice cover decrease and sea level rise.

In fact, the sea ice gains in Antarctica have perhaps modestly superseded the losses in the Arctic, resulting in a very slight increasing overall trend in global - scale sea ice during the last 10 years:

While it is tempting to attribute the unexplained sea ice trends to other factors such as increased upwelling of relatively warm circumpolar deepwater (Thoma et al. 2008), an intensification of the hydrological cycle and increased ocean stratification (Liu and Curry 2010), or eastward propagation of sea ice anomalies (Holland et al. 2005), the observed northerly wind trends (Fig. 5a) are qualitatively consistent with the decrease in sea ice in the 30 ° W — 60 ° W sector.

From 2006 to 2016, global sea ice trends have also been remarkably stable despite a massive increase in anthropogenic CO2 emissions during this period.

The Antarctic sea ice extent has been slowly increasing contrary to expected trends due to global warming and results from coupled climate models...

The G refers to global, thus the MEAN global T must rise, the mean sea ice extent must decrease, global sea level trend must increase, global tornadoes must rise, global floods must increase, the rate of global sea riseust rise, and all the global change MUST be catastrophic, and clearly outside of recent past global flux.

Also, a recent analysis of Antarctic sea ice trends for 1978 — 1996 by Watkins and Simmonds [2000] found significant increases in both Antarctic sea ice extent and ice area, similar to the results in this paper.

Moreover, significant trends in sensible heat and evaporation rates are evident in satellite - derived datasets, especially in the Barents - Kara Sea region in the fall due to increases in the air - sea temperature and humidity gradients, collocated with reductions in sea iSea region in the fall due to increases in the air - sea temperature and humidity gradients, collocated with reductions in sea isea temperature and humidity gradients, collocated with reductions in sea isea ice.

For example, additional evidence of a warming trend can be found in the dramatic decrease in the extent of Arctic sea ice at its summer minimum (which occurs in September), decrease in spring snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere, increases in the global average upper ocean (upper 700 m or 2300 feet) heat content (shown relative to the 1955 — 2006 average), and in sea - level rise.

From 1978 to 1996, the average ice cover around Antarctica showed almost no trend (a slight increase 1.3 % per decade), however ice decreased by 2.9 % per decade on average over the arctic seas (1).

Jim D, if you and others like you aren't willing to do what must be done to greatly increase the price of carbon, then all your talk of ice sheet melting, sea level rise, climate tipping points, global temperature trends, the earth's paleoclimate history, and climate model projections — all of that talk is mere Kabuke theater.

Temperatures in Antarctica are not increasing and the SH sea ice area shows a statistically significant positive trend during the satellite period.

Melting Arctic sea ice, shrinking glaciers, and increased rate of Antarctic ice flow, these are, I think, far more reliable and objective gauges to long - term climate trends than are local temperature measurements.

Record droughts in many areas of the world, the loss of arctic sea ice — what you see is an increasing trend that is superimposed on annual variablity (no bets on what happens next year, but the five - to - ten year average in global temperatures, sea surface temperatures, ocean heat content — those will increase — and ice sheet volumes, tropical glacier volumes, sea ice extent will decrease.

However, analysis of the variability of Antarctic sea ice in models shows that it is possible that the current trend of increasing sea ice extent is a result of the high variability in the Antarctic sea ice and climate system.

Melting glaciers and sea ice are particularly worrisome trends because they trigger critical secondary effects, notably including increasing rates of sea - level rise.

Lett., 2011, doi: 10.1029 / 2011GL048008) evaluated the NCAR CCSM4 model arctic sea ice trends and found that on time - scales less than 10 years, it's equally possible for the September sea ice to increase or decrease even into the 21st century.

Observed blocking trends are diagnosed to test the hypothesis that recent Arctic warming and sea ice loss has increased the likelihood of blocking over the Northern Hemisphere.