Since 1990, during the months from November to March, Morgan Stanley's
index of cyclical stock has outpaced its consumer stock index in 13 out of 15 years (and the S&P 500 Index 10 out of 15 years).
Not exact matches
With regard to recent performance, which has been positive but modest since the market peak last year, the main factor that has kept our returns relatively restrained despite the collapse
of financials has been the simultaneous collapse
of technology and consumer
stocks, with
cyclicals and commodities providing the greatest support to the major
indices.
For some historical perspective, let's look back to December 2006, when the VIX, which is sometimes referred to as the market's fear
index, hit a
cyclical low
of 9.39, just as the housing market began to stumble and
stock markets were beginning their final run - up ahead
of the Great Recession and a subsequent 57 percent crash.
This year, MSCI's World Consumer
index is up about 10 percent, but still trails the broader World benchmark and most
of the other
cyclical benchmarks (except for consumer discretionary
stocks, which are lagging both domestically and internationally).
Countercyclical
Indexing is a low fee and tax efficient form of indexing which uses systematically constructed cyclical market models that help hedge an investor from permanent loss risk as stocks become more riskier the market cycle while reducing hedges as stocks become les
Indexing is a low fee and tax efficient form
of indexing which uses systematically constructed cyclical market models that help hedge an investor from permanent loss risk as stocks become more riskier the market cycle while reducing hedges as stocks become les
indexing which uses systematically constructed
cyclical market models that help hedge an investor from permanent loss risk as
stocks become more riskier the market cycle while reducing hedges as
stocks become less risky.
Owning an
index - like portfolio
of Canadian
stocks means having a large exposure to the highly
cyclical industries, specifically energy (24 per cent
of the S&P / TSX composite
index), materials (17 per cent) and industrials (5 per cent).
The prices
of cyclical stocks climbed faster last year than their earnings leaving the P / E multiple on Morgan Stanley's
index at 29, up from 21 this time last year.
The funds were first movers in taking exposure to
cyclical stocks that weren't a part
of their benchmark
index a year ago.