Not exact matches
The growing body of scientific evidence
indicates that this negative
phase has played a heavy role in driving an approximately 15 - year old slowdown in worldwide surface
warming.
The U.K. Met Office
indicates a shift to the
warm phase could be around the corner.
The model simulation quite clearly
indicates that any natural «AMO» surface
warming of the tropical Atlantic should be in
phase with a strengthening, not a weakening, of the THC.
However, if CO2 plays this role it is surprising that climatic proxies
indicate that Antarctica seems to have
warmed prior to the Northern Hemisphere, yet glacial cycles follow in
phase with Northern insolation («INcoming SOLar radiATION») patterns, raising questions as to what communication mechanism links the hemispheres.
As the effect is purely cooling without a compensating
warming phase it's not averaged out but it influences the analysis and reaching an accuracy of mK range in presence of such random external influence seems to
indicate overfitting.
So, the 2013 global surface average being almost as
warm as 1998 while the ENSO is in a slightly cooler than neutral
phase indicates that
warming has continued.
At present, the Pacific shifts erratically and frequently between
warm and cold
phases, but paleoclimate data
indicates that, even during the Holocene, there were extended periods when it was stuck in one
phase or the other.
Current signs though
indicate that the pattern is being transformed to the opposite
phase as the eastern Pacific is observed to having
warmer than usual water.
As in the prior article, this chart
indicates a long - term global
warming trend of 1.07 °C by 2100AD - this includes the most recent
warming phase of ENSO.
Today, one need only quote Monckton and then cite the recent MSU and surface data demonstrating that the climate has resumed a significant
warming phase, and
indicating the possibility that this year will either be the
warmest since temperature recordings began, or very close to it.