He has spent nearly the past 40 years studying penguins in Antarctica, and said he has also seen a decline in populations that he feels comfortable attributing to
the indirect effects of climate change.
Markus leads the effort at PCIC to quantify the direct and
indirect effects of climate change and variability upon the various components of hydrologic cycle at the local and regional scale.
In addition to the direct effects of warming temperatures, there are
indirect effects of climate change.
In addition, we do not detail potential responses of individual tree species to climate shifts in this assessment; instead, we focus on the direct and
indirect effects of climate change on forests.
The results of this analysis on
the indirect effects of climate change on Montana's forests produced several key messages, some of which are shown below (for a complete list of key messages, see the Forests chapter):
Indirect effects of climate change on forests include disturbance — a key component of forest ecology — and may be more important, immediate, and longer lasting than direct effects.
However,
the indirect effects of climate change on forests, such as changing wildfire and beetle outbreak severity, are already having a large impact on the health of Montana's forests and in some instances these impacts are easier to predict.
Montana's forests will be affected by both direct and
indirect effects of climate change.
Whether they will actually lead to a greater incidence of the disease will be complicated by factors including control measures, the availability of drugs, and even other
indirect effects of climate change, such as population changes, migration and urbanization.
Drought - induced starvation of aardvarks in the Kalahari:
an indirect effect of climate change.
«It is a strange,
indirect effect of climate change,» Deacy said.
Not exact matches
Understanding the importance
of these
indirect effects, in comparison to the direct
effects, will improve our understanding
of how ecosystems respond to
climate change.
Thus, in the forthcoming decades, and especially in northern Mediterranean regions, the direct
effect of climate change is expected to be more dominant, regarding the
indirect effect of the previous
climate.
For instance, the direct
effect of climate change in regulating fuel moisture could be counterbalanced by the
indirect effects on fuel structure.
A recent study published in Scientific Reports, led by researchers
of the University
of Barcelona in collaboration with several other research institutions, shows that the direct
effect of climate change in regulating fuel moisture (droughts leading to larger fires) is expected to be dominant, regarding the
indirect effect of antecedent
climate on fuel load and structure - that is, warmer / drier conditions that determine fuel availability.
The model also accounted for natural drivers
of change, including the direct influence
of increased carbon dioxide on ocean - carbon uptake and the
indirect effect that a
changing climate has on the physical state
of the ocean and its relationship to atmospheric carbon dioxide.
«We have to watch for larger,
indirect effects,» Tyack said, noting that
climate changes could reduce prey fish, and thus indirectly harm marine mammals — which might suffer additional stress if they're traveling in an area
of active oil exploration, for instance.
Below, we list research that is needed to achieve better understanding
of direct
effects,
indirect effects, and general
effects of climate change in Montana.
Note that the last remark can go either way, as the solar signal can even be more enhanced at the cost
of the sensitivity for the greenhouse signal... And from Hansen ea.: «Solar irradiance
change has a strong spectral dependence [Lean, 2000], and resulting
climate changes may include
indirect effects of induced ozone
change [RFCR; Haigh, 1999; Shindell et al., 1999a] and conceivably even cosmic ray
effects on clouds [Dickinson, 1975].
indirect effect A secondary impact to a system from a
change that was caused by shifting
climate conditions, such as increased fire frequency, which is a result
of drier conditions caused by an increase in temperature.
Indirect effects may result from a range
of government regulations aimed at
climate change mitigation.
Earth's measured energy imbalance has been used to infer the
climate forcing by aerosols, with two independent analyses yielding a forcing in the past decade
of about − 1.5 W / m2 [64], [72], including the direct aerosol forcing and
indirect effects via induced cloud
changes.
The running head for our paper is «
indirect effects of climate warming,» because the key seems to be the
change in habitat structure (due to warming) that has altered predator - prey relationships.
... they caution that society should fully quantify direct and
indirect GHG emissions associated with energy alternatives and associated consequences prior to making policy commitments that have long - term
effects on global forests; for they ominously warn «there is a substantial risk
of sacrificing forest integrity and sustainability for maintaining or even increasing energy production with no guarantee to mitigate
climate change.»»
This resolution presents that the Council noted «
climate change - related impacts have a range
of implications, both direct and
indirect, for the effective enjoyment
of human rights...» and that such
effects «will be felt most acutely by those segments
of the population who are already in a vulnerable situation.»
The most recent report from the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change states with «very high confidence» that «the health of human populations is sensitive to shifts in weather patterns and other aspects of climate change» due to direct effects — such as changes in temperature and precipitation or occurrence of heat waves, floods, droughts, and fires — as well as indirect effects — through crop failures, shifting patterns of disease vectors, or displacement of popul
Climate Change states with «very high confidence» that «the health of human populations is sensitive to shifts in weather patterns and other aspects of climate change» due to direct effects — such as changes in temperature and precipitation or occurrence of heat waves, floods, droughts, and fires — as well as indirect effects — through crop failures, shifting patterns of disease vectors, or displacement of popula
Change states with «very high confidence» that «the health
of human populations is sensitive to shifts in weather patterns and other aspects
of climate change» due to direct effects — such as changes in temperature and precipitation or occurrence of heat waves, floods, droughts, and fires — as well as indirect effects — through crop failures, shifting patterns of disease vectors, or displacement of popul
climate change» due to direct effects — such as changes in temperature and precipitation or occurrence of heat waves, floods, droughts, and fires — as well as indirect effects — through crop failures, shifting patterns of disease vectors, or displacement of popula
change» due to direct
effects — such as
changes in temperature and precipitation or occurrence
of heat waves, floods, droughts, and fires — as well as
indirect effects — through crop failures, shifting patterns
of disease vectors, or displacement
of populations.
Climate change driven disruptions to ecosystems have direct and indirect human impacts, including reduced water supply and quality, the loss of iconic species and landscapes, effects on food chains and the timing and success of species migrations, and the potential for extreme weather and climate events to destroy or degrade the ability of ecosystems to provide societal bene
Climate change driven disruptions to ecosystems have direct and
indirect human impacts, including reduced water supply and quality, the loss
of iconic species and landscapes,
effects on food chains and the timing and success
of species migrations, and the potential for extreme weather and
climate events to destroy or degrade the ability of ecosystems to provide societal bene
climate events to destroy or degrade the ability
of ecosystems to provide societal benefits.11
Climate change has both direct and
indirect effects on agricultural productivity including
changing rainfall patterns, drought, flooding and the geographical redistribution
of pests and diseases.
Earth's measured energy imbalance has been used to infer the
climate forcing by aerosols, with two independent analyses yielding a forcing in the past decade
of about − 1.5 W / m2 [64], [72], including the direct aerosol forcing and
indirect effects via induced cloud
changes.
Climate scientist Kevin Trenberth also notes that the
change in the estimated aerosol forcing is mainly associated with
indirect aerosol
effects, but half
of GCMs don't include these
indirect effects, and those that do actually tend to simulate less warming.
«We have focused on the U.S. economy, although the bulk
of the economic damage from
climate change will be borne outside
of the United States (42), and impacts outside the United States will have
indirect effects on the United States through trade, migration, and possibly other channels» — In other words they ignored the
indirect effects which are extremely important hence their study is to put it mildly rubbish.
Additional runs for 2000 with 1850
climate and for 2030 and 2100 (RCP 8.5) with 2000 emissions are designed to separate the
effects of climate change on constituents and for isolating aerosol
indirect effects more cleanly using the clear - sky / all - sky flux diagnostics.
Among the
changes: requiring the E.P.A. to include «
indirect land use
changes» in analyzing biofuels and their
effect on emissions
of climate -
changing greenhouse gases.
Increased dust flux may increase aridity and suppress rainfall outside deserts, with opposite
effects under wetting scenarios (Bachelet et al., 2001; Hardy, 2003; Prospero and Lamb, 2003; Lioubimtseva and Adams, 2004), leading to
indirect effects on the vulnerability
of remote regions to
climate change.
A
change in stratospheric water vapour because
of the increase in methane over the industrial period would be a forcing
of the
climate (and is one
of the
indirect effects of methane we discussed last year), but a
change in the tropopause flux is a response to other factors in the
climate system.
The aerosol
indirect effects are the greatest source
of uncertainty in assessing the human impact on
climate change (reviewed here.
Climate change and bark beetles
of the Western United States and Canada: Direct and
indirect effects.
Increasingly strong and complex global linkages:
climate -
change effects cascade through expanding series
of international trade, migration and communication patterns to produce a variety
of indirect effects, some
of which may be unanticipated, especially if the globalised economy becomes less resilient and more interdependent (very high confidence).
Irrigation
effects on
climate may also be
indirect, especially in monsoon regions where alteration
of the thermal contrast between land and ocean may produce
changes in monsoon circulation and the accompanying climatic variables.
Topics that I work on or plan to work in the future include studies
of: + missing aerosol species and sources, such as the primary oceanic aerosols and their importance on the remote marine atmosphere, the in - cloud and aerosol water aqueous formation
of organic aerosols that can lead to brown carbon formation, the primary terrestrial biological particles, and the organic nitrogen + missing aerosol parameterizations, such as the
effect of aerosol mixing on cloud condensation nuclei and aerosol absorption, the semi-volatility
of primary organic aerosols, the importance
of in - canopy processes on natural terrestrial aerosol and aerosol precursor sources, and the mineral dust iron solubility and bioavailability + the
change of aerosol burden and its spatiotemporal distribution, especially with regard to its role and importance on gas - phase chemistry via photolysis rates
changes and heterogeneous reactions in the atmosphere, as well as their
effect on key gas - phase species like ozone + the physical and optical properties
of aerosols, which affect aerosol transport, lifetime, and light scattering and absorption, with the latter being very sensitive to the vertical distribution
of absorbing aerosols + aerosol - cloud interactions, which include cloud activation, the aerosol
indirect effect and the impact
of clouds on aerosol removal +
changes on
climate and feedbacks related with all these topics In order to understand the
climate system as a whole, improve the aerosol representation in the GISS ModelE2 and contribute to future IPCC
climate change assessments and CMIP activities, I am also interested in understanding the importance
of natural and anthropogenic aerosol
changes in the atmosphere on the terrestrial biosphere, the ocean and
climate.