This lack of consistency between
individual temperature proxies, even in the same area, raises serious questions about the reliability of the global estimates.
Not exact matches
The NRC noted that «presently available
proxy evidence indicates that
temperatures at many, but not all,
individual locations were higher during the past 25 years than during any period of comparable length since A.D. 900.»
Amplitude and Duration: Davis identified 650
individual cycles of
Temperature -
proxy Oscillation (TO - c350) cycles in the Vostok data over the past 220,000 years.
Here I've done the calculations so that I obtain the MBH98
temperature reconstruction (working here only with the 15th century
proxies) as a linear combination of the 95
individual proxies in the 15th century network.
Here, we test a new
proxy — the oxygen isotopic signature of
individual benthic foraminifera — to detect rapid (i.e. monthly to decadal) variations in deep ocean
temperature and salinity in the sedimentary record.
Temperature reconstructions for periods before about A.D. 1600 are based on
proxies from a limited number of geographic regions, and some reconstructions are not robust with respect to the removal of
proxy records from
individual regions (see, e.g., Wahl and Ammann in press).
Three of these (Coppermine, Hornby Cabin and Mackenzie Mountains) were subsequently used in the Jacoby and D'Arrigo 1989
temperature reconstruction that was prominent in early NH reconstructions and as
individual proxies in Mann et al 1998.
I would think in a more rational world we might be celebrating the recent Marcott paper, with its statements of uncertainties, its arbitrary re-dating of cores and its presentations of easily viewable
individual proxy series, as a major revelation of the limitations on the use of available
proxies in making long term
temperature reconstructions.
As Hank implies, no paleoclimatologist says that
individual proxies response to «global
temperatures».
Just wanted a clarification that he EIV method uses * global *
temperatures to perform the screening / calibration of the
individual ** local **
proxies — is that correct?
Presently available
proxy evidence indicates that
temperatures at many, but not all,
individual locations were higher during the past 25 years than during any period of comparable length since A.D. 900.
His reconstruction does not prove a different past
temperature, only the different results possible if you ignore calibration of the
individual proxies.
To tease any reliable information, the
individual proxies have to be calibrated to
temperature, with confidence intervals applied and the combination of the
proxies have to consider the confidence intervals of each
proxy.
If one is willing to wade through the
individual proxy series divergence can be seen in many
proxy responses to
temperature.
What they've done is pick the highest
temperature in any
individual record from the entire 800-1200 period (and sometimes they extend it all the way to 600 AD or 1400 on the other end), and compare it to the most recent record of whatever
proxy is involved.
A number of spurious criticisms regarding the Mann et al (1998)
proxy - based
temperature reconstruction have been made by two
individuals McIntyre and McKitrick (McIntyre works in the mining industry, while McKitrick is an economist).
These consist of
individual, or small regional averages of,
proxy records collated from those used by Mann and Jones (2003), Esper et al. (2002) and Luckman and Wilson (2005), but exclude shorter series or those with no evidence of sensitivity to local
temperature.
If this component is used by itself or in conjunction with a small number of unaffected components to perform reconstruction, the resulting
temperature reconstruction may exhibit a trend, even though the
individual proxies do not.