The answer, according to climate and weather experts, is simply a combination of factors, including La Nina, local atmospheric patterns, and potentially climate change — though the importance of climate in
any individual weather scenario is still nearly impossible to quantify.
Not exact matches
While the models do not reliably track
individual extreme
weather events, they do reproduce the jet stream patterns and temperature
scenarios that in the real world lead to torrential rain for days, weeks of broiling sun and absence of precipitation.
I was simply trying to forestall the initial answer I expected - that
individual weather events were to be judged unlikely in a baseline
scenario on the basis of whether they happened in climate models.