But, pertaining to whatever your argument may be, what do natural cycles have to do with anthropogenic forcing and increased radiative forcing or human
induced albedo changes or the like?
Not exact matches
What difference between energy absorption and radiation do we need to
induce in order to make the air temperature increase by 1 degree C, assuming no
change in
albedo?
Also interesting that they don't understand that water vapour feedback, no matter what it's magnitude, applies equally to anything that causes a
change in radiative forcing for the planet — more GH gases,
Albedo change, any GCR
induced changes in clouds.
However, if the non-radiative impacts from land use
changes create warming that offsets the
albedo -
induced cooling, then observational studies would be more accurate than Marvel's model, at least insofar as land use impacts are concerned.
The reason why I think it's wrong is that in her calculation of ESS she takes the radiative forcing caused by
albedo changes (resulting from the massive
change in ice coverage between a glacial and interglacial state) and assumes it to be a feedback on the CO2
induced temperature -
change.
1) In reality both the
changes in
albedo (reflectivity) and CO2 concentration are feedbacks on the orbital forcing, and the relation in the one direction (a
change in earth's orbit causing a temperature
change which in turn causes
albedo and CO2 levels to
change) is not necessarily the same as the relation in the reverse direction, as is currently happening with human -
induced increases in CO2.
Temperature
changes induced by sun and oceans drive air circulation
changes which drive
changes in every aspect of climate including convection, conduction, evaporation, condensation, precipitation, windiness, cloudiness,
albedo and humidity as regards both quantities and distribution.
Once started, that is a self fulfilling, rapid transition, even without any further help of CO2, until the
change in ice / vegetation area is too small to
induce more
albedo / temperature
change.
Reductions in
albedo due to decreasing sea ice
induced by wind
changes were attributed as the cause of this early warming.
[23] Chapter 8 of AR5, referring to a seven model study, states that» There is no agreement on the sign of the temperature
change induced by anthropogenic land - use
change» and concludes that a net cooling of the surface — accounting for processes that are not limited to the
albedo — is about as likely as not».
Paper: Reference: Yun Qian, William I. Gustafson Jr., L. Ruby Leung, Steven J. Ghan, Effects of soot -
induced snow
albedo change on snowpack and hydrological cycle in western U.S. based on WRF chemistry and regional climate simulations, Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, 2009, doi: 10.1029 / 2008JD011039