When heavy rainfall probabilities were next investigated in ensembles of two atmospheric general circulation models, run with and without anthropogenically -
induced sea surface temperature changes, results were model - dependent.
Not exact matches
In recent years, a brand of research called «climate attribution science» has sprouted from this question, examining the impact of extreme events to determine how much — often in fractional terms — is related to human -
induced climate
change, and how much to natural variability (whether in climate patterns such as the El Niño / La Niña - Southern Oscillation,
sea -
surface temperatures,
changes in incoming solar radiation, or a host of other possible factors).
Please don't lose the bigger perspective and the undoubted effects of high
sea surface temperatures, of which a component is human
induced climate
change, on these events.
Changing global
temperatures induce air circulation
changes as the air seeks to restore the
sea surface /
surface air
temperature equilibrium...
Investigators outside NOAA are finding interesting trends and showing that they seem to be correlated with trends in such variables as SST [
Sea Surface Temperature] in key regions, the
changes of which almost certainly are due to human -
induced changes in the climate, though having enough data to get all the statistics right is often problematic.
Importantly, the
changes in cereal yield projected for the 2020s and 2080s are driven by GHG -
induced climate
change and likely do not fully capture interannual precipitation variability which can result in large yield reductions during dry periods, as the IPCC (Christensen et al., 2007) states: ``... there is less confidence in the ability of the AOGCMs (atmosphere - ocean general circulation models) to generate interannual variability in the SSTs (
sea surface temperatures) of the type known to affect African rainfall, as evidenced by the fact that very few AOGCMs produce droughts comparable in magnitude to the Sahel droughts of the 1970s and 1980s.»
This basin - wide
change in the Atlantic climate (both warming and cooling)
induces a basin - scale
sea surface temperature seesaw with the Pacific Ocean, which in turn modifies the position of the Walker circulation (the language by which the tropical basins communicate) and the strength of the Pacific trade winds.
Regional circulation patterns have significantly
changed in recent years.2 For example,
changes in the Arctic Oscillation can not be explained by natural variation and it has been suggested that they are broadly consistent with the expected influence of human -
induced climate
change.3 The signature of global warming has also been identified in recent
changes in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, a pattern of variability in
sea surface temperatures in the northern Pacific Ocean.4
However, a confident assessment of human influence on hurricanes will require further studies using models and observations, with emphasis on distinguishing natural from human -
induced changes in hurricane activity through their influence on factors such as historical
sea surface temperatures, wind shear, and atmospheric vertical stability.
In Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBF), the 1998 El Nino
induced above average
sea surface temperatures and salinity
changes for 2 months triggering massive coral losses in the reef's upper 20 meters.
The observed patterns of
surface warming,
temperature changes through the atmosphere, increases in ocean heat content, increases in atmospheric moisture,
sea level rise, and increased melting of land and
sea ice also match the patterns scientists expect to see due to rising levels of CO2 and other human -
induced changes (see Question 5).
Changing global
temperatures induce air circulation
changes as the air seeks to restore the
sea surface /
surface air
temperature equilibrium and at the same time resolve ocean
induced variations in the sun to
sea / air to space equilibrium.