Given the run - up in economically sensitive assets, many investors appear to be buying into this thesis; witness the surge in
industrial metal prices (see the chart below).
Although global GDP is difficult to measure in real time, historically, changes in
industrial metal prices have been a reliable proxy.
Put differently, in quarters when
industrial metal prices rose, emerging market equities outperformed developed markets by roughly 3.5 % on average.
True, in recent years, as oil and
industrial metal prices climbed, the TSX Composite outperformed the S&P 500.
«It is tempting to blame the sharp post-election rally in
industrial metals prices on President - elect Trump's platform of lower taxation and higher public spending on infrastructure,» wrote analysts at Goldman Sachs.
But most market players, including CPM Group, are confident that energy and
industrial metals prices will bounce back strongly and quickly once the world economy starts to recover.
We see stability in
industrial metals prices but favor a selective approach to related stocks and bonds.
Not exact matches
The capacity cuts are contributing to higher
metals prices, with the S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index having gained more than 24 percent year - to -
metals prices, with the S&P GSCI
Industrial Metals Index having gained more than 24 percent year - to -
Metals Index having gained more than 24 percent year - to - date.
China has a big appetite for copper, an
industrial metal whose
price has risen more than 23 percent in the last 12 months.
Prices for copper, a key
industrial metal and a strong leading indicator of economic growth, have remained robust at above $ 4 a pound.
Precious and
Industrial Metals Inflation concerns, geopolitical tensions and interest - rate levels, especially real yields, contributed to a 1.7 % rise in the spot
price of gold (to US$ 1,325 per troy ounce), as did swings in the US dollar.1 Gold
prices traded within the US$ 1,305 — 1,360 range throughout the period, reached 18 - month highs in March and capped their third straight quarterly gain, a feat not seen since 2011.1 Haven demand was a key support as exchange - traded gold holdings of 2,269 metric tons (mt) neared a five - year high.1 The Fed is widely expected to boost borrowing costs, and investors have been carefully watching the central bank's statements to see whether it targets more rate increases in 2018 than previously projected.
In the base
metals complex, only nickel and tin traded higher for the quarter.4 A slow start to Chinese restocking coming out of the Chinese New Year holiday weighed on
prices for copper and aluminum, both of which saw their worst quarterly results in years, while zinc and lead
prices also declined.4 The London
Metal Exchange (LME) Index, which tracks the three - month futures prices of all six metals, fell 6.3 %.4 LME copper -LRB--7.4 %, to US$ 6,714 per mt) and other industrial metals erased some of their 2017 gains, falling alongside a sharply decelerating expansion in China's manufacturing activity — sparking demand concerns and greater caution among hedge funds and other speculators who cut their net long positions in the metal.4 Outside the LME, US steel was buoyed by trade policy cha
Metal Exchange (LME) Index, which tracks the three - month futures
prices of all six
metals, fell 6.3 %.4 LME copper -LRB--7.4 %, to US$ 6,714 per mt) and other
industrial metals erased some of their 2017 gains, falling alongside a sharply decelerating expansion in China's manufacturing activity — sparking demand concerns and greater caution among hedge funds and other speculators who cut their net long positions in the
metal.4 Outside the LME, US steel was buoyed by trade policy cha
metal.4 Outside the LME, US steel was buoyed by trade policy changes.
Sluggish global growth and muted inflation continue to put pressure on commodity
prices, particularly those most exposed to global growth, like
prices for
industrial metals and oil.
Using daily spot
prices for platinum group
metals, gold and crude oil, daily levels of a broad U.S. stock market index, monthly U.S. consumer and producer
price indexes and monthly U.S.
industrial production levels during July 1992 through December 2011, they find that: Keep Reading
Australian resource shares slumped following a drop in commodity
prices for
industrial and precious
metals.
This index tracks the
price of
industrial metals like copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, and lead.
These
price increases have been driven by low stocks and expanding global
industrial production, and have taken base
metals prices close to 15 - year highs.
Commodity
prices have been heading lower for more than four years, and according to data accessible via Bloomberg, commodities have been the worst performing asset class of 2015, with the most severe losses in cyclical commodities, such as oil and
industrial metals.
Higher
prices for
industrial metals like silver and copper helped mining and related stocks.
Indeed, the
metal's unique properties appeal to a plethora of
industrial uses, indicating
prices should firm as the economy improves.
Looking at quarterly data, since 1990 every one percentage point rise in
industrial commodity prices (using the JOC Industrial Metals Index) has translated into roughly 0.30 % outperformance by emergin
industrial commodity
prices (using the JOC
Industrial Metals Index) has translated into roughly 0.30 % outperformance by emergin
Industrial Metals Index) has translated into roughly 0.30 % outperformance by emerging markets.
The commodity selloff has been quite broad and includes
industrial and previous
metals, energy
prices, and agriculturals.
Base
metal prices have followed a similar pattern this year, rising by 15 per cent in the first three months of the year, supported by strengthening world
industrial production.
If the process could be applied to other common
industrial metals such as copper, it would have the potential to significantly lower
prices as well as reduce the air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions associated with traditional production.
Several furniture pieces add storage and seating — a rustic nightstand (we used this one from RH but consider here, here, or here for a similar option at a more affordable
price), a white campaign trunk, and an
industrial metal bench.
The investment seeks to track the
price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, 200 % of the inverse daily performance of the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity index - Optimum Yield
Industrial Metals Excess Return.
Precious
metal mining stocks have been on a sharp uptrend, while stock
prices of base
metal and
industrial metal miners are languishing.
The investment seeks to track the
price and performance yield, before fees and expenses, of the UBS Bloomberg CMCI
Industrial Metals Total Return index.
That's because when gold
prices soar, investors see silver as less of an
industrial commodity and more as a precious
metal.
I also have a position in MFC
Industrial, a company with exposure to
metals and oil and gas (which, however, I will be selling shortly), a video game developer that is a net / net (Gravity Ltd.), a small position in RadioShack (made even smaller by the decline in share
price over the past 2 years), and finally a short - term spinoff trade (Oil States International).
Largely because of China's and India's explosive growth, waits for specialized
industrial equipment like boilers and furnaces can stretch two years or more, and steel and
metal prices are spiking.
I suspect these restrictions on heavy
metals is a last ditch attempt to hinder coal burning utilities in the generation of electricity, an important move by Obama in his campaign to wreck our
industrial economy by inflating the
price of energy.
At the same time, high
prices for
metals, fossil fuels, and other
industrial resources drove a global search for exploitable reserves, many of which lie in tropical forest countries.
The country's economy has stabilised after a few difficult years of low oil
prices, especially as it is making efforts to diversify away from oil and into minerals and
metals, as well as
industrial products, and 2018 is expected to be a better year for deal - making in the country.
However, given the current demand for the
metal in the
industrial sector, it would not come as a shock if
prices accelerate in the near future.
Through a series of high - level panel discussions, dialogues and debates, the event will examine the fundamental and technical drivers of supply, demand, and
pricing in key commodity categories — crude oil and clean energy, precious,
industrial and strategic
metals, ags, softs, livestock and more.