Such is not the case with the larger group
of industry voters who will ultimately call the shots, numbering upwards of 6,000 plus depending on the guild.
Whenever I see that beautiful afro on Viola Davis I am reminded of her subtle rebellion against the need to blend in to appeal to
industry voters who really only see one kind of woman.
That means the studio will have to work hard making sure Academy and
industry voters see all three movies.
The Producers Guild winner that comes not too long after will either agree with the Globes or won't, but given that the PGA is comprised of thousands of
actual industry voters and uses the preferential ballot, the PGA does take precedence in terms of Best Picture signaling.
And while The Shape of Water has been recognized by film journalists and critics, it has also attracted big attention
by industry voters, including nominations from the Screen Actors Guild, the Director's Guild of America, the Writers Guild of America and the British Academy of Film and Television Awards (BAFTAs).
It doesn't matter what the public thinks because the awards are mostly decided behind closed doors,
with industry voters picking their favorites almost at the exact same time, give or take a week or two.
So, you have to fold in their choices with what you know to be true: a movie like A Most Violent Year was always going to be too esoteric for Academy /
industry voters where thousands choose, as opposed to up to 100.
We're going with Mary J. Blige, who has become a standout in her first awards season as a representative of her daring film Mudbound; Octavia Spencer, a former winner who is both well - liked and part of a
film industry voters seem to love; and Holly Hunter, perhaps the biggest underdog in this category, but a four - time nominee who proved with her surprise nomination for Thirteen in 2004 that, when Oscar voters are given the chance to notice her, they'll take it.
Birdman was an explicit screed against superhero movies, and thus, perhaps that message resonated
among industry voters.
As before, this voting simulation is * not * at all intended to predict the Best Picture nominees or how Academy voters will behave — it goes without saying that critics and bloggers are
not industry voters.
Twitter can be disorienting for Oscar watchers if you follow a handful of biased, overly enthusiastic types who can lead you astray when it comes to knowing what a consensus
of industry voters will do, as opposed to what a handful of pundits might do.
The people who vote for the Golden Globes, however, are an entirely different group, and they're not
industry voters.
Critics heavily supported the HBO drama, but
industry voters have never been kind to David Simon.