Stronger
inflation data over comings months will be the main catalyst for rising DM rates, so breakevens are a convex expression of this theme.
Figure 8 illustrates how the data have changed more recently, by averaging the PCE
inflation data over one year, over six months, and over three months.
Not exact matches
Federal Reserve
data show that average family income at households headed by self - employed people declined 5.4 percent in real terms between 1989 and 2010, while average family income at households headed by people working for others rose 20.4 percent in
inflation - adjusted terms
over the same period.
So it might not be the Great Depression, but short - term prospects dimmed considerably
over the weekend — so much so that Kit Juckes, a currency strategist at Société Générale, lamented the possibility that
data set for release this week could show that U.S. wages finally are growing faster than
inflation.
Investor concerns
over inflation was reflected in Lipper funds
data on Thursday, which showed U.S. - based
inflation - protected bond funds attracted $ 859 million
over the weekly period, the largest inflows since November 2016.
Yet «low»
inflation remains in the spotlight for Fed policymakers, with government price
data remaining tame
over the past five years.
Not only have you missed your 2 %
inflation target every quarter since 2012q2, but as the figure shows (using revised
data on yr / yr PCE core
inflation) you're missing it on the downside by a greater margin
over time.
Nevertheless, FED officials generally would need additional
data points to conclude the formation of a new trend (the famous saying of «3
data points form a trend»), but even slightly stronger optimism
over inflation would already serve as a stark contrast vs. market speculation of outright deflation followed by Federal Reserve implementing negative rates, or completely ruling out rate hike for the next 10 months.
 However, Statistics Canadaâ $ ™ s figures from actual payroll
data show that average wages paid by local governments have increased at a lower rate than overall average wages and at rates above the rate of
inflation over the past twenty years:
BGC Market
Data makes our Inflation data available both directly, via low latency data feeds and flat files over FTP, and from our vendor partn
Data makes our
Inflation data available both directly, via low latency data feeds and flat files over FTP, and from our vendor partn
data available both directly, via low latency
data feeds and flat files over FTP, and from our vendor partn
data feeds and flat files
over FTP, and from our vendor partners.
Rent growth is pacing almost a full percentage point behind the overall rate of
inflation, which stands at 2.4 percent as of the latest
data release, and is even further behing the growth in average hourly earnings which have increased by 2.7 percent
over the past twelve months.
Data from the Ghana statistical Services (GSS) suggests that the 15.5 percent is one of the lowest
inflation recorded in the country
over the last 24 months.
Moreover, the
data sorts students into five predetermined income groups that are not adjusted for
inflation over time.
That means this
data does not even take into account the additional increases that followed
over the next few years that far outpaced
inflation.
Consider this: according to Education Resource Group and
data from the Texas Education Agency, aggregate public education funding from all sources
over the past 14 years has increased by $ 70 billion more than the increase necessary to fully fund the growth in enrollment and
inflation combined
over this period, even when adding a factor for the increase in special needs students.
The Department of Labor released Consumer Price Index (CPI)
data for May showing consumer
inflation ticking up 2.1 %
over the past twelve months.
Again, I should emphasize that even if we observe
inflation pressures on the basis of the monetary relationships above, it typically takes an extended period of 6 - 12 months before those pressures become clearly reflected in price levels (so the relationship between actual and implied
inflation is tighter if the
data are smoothed
over several quarters).
Looking at
data for Canada
over the past 25 years, a period of low and stable
inflation, stock / bond correlation has generally moved in tandem with monetary policy.
If
inflation is included using the monthly CPI
data, the total return
over the period is -25 %.
While detailed research shows that stocks have a weak negative correlation with
inflation, this relationship is not pervasive
over place and time, and most researchers recognize the large amount of noise in the
data.
While you can say that gold is the «best»
inflation hedge and stocks are the «worst», such a conclusion completely ignores the uncertainties of the
data including the variability
over time and place.
Using the 4 % rule and historical
inflation with 4.02 % mean and 1.32 % standard deviation based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI - U)
data from January 1972 to December 2016, the simulation calculated an 86.23 % chance of success
over a 30 - year period.
You'll then pay # 22 / mth for 24 months for unlimited minutes and texts and 4 GB of
data, making it # 897.99
over two years (though the monthly cost may increase each year in line with
inflation).
It's then # 30 / mth for 24 months, which gets you unlimited minutes and texts and a huge 16 GB of
data, meaning you'll pay a total of # 1,170
over the two years (though the monthly cost may increase each year in line with
inflation).
Based on CPI
data,
inflation over the same period averaged 4.13 %.
Incomes, meanwhile, have not kept pace: Real disposable personal income in the U.S. has increased only about 5.5 %
over the past two years, according to
data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using
inflation - adjusted numbers.