Not exact matches
Inflation probably won't rise
back to the
Fed's 2 percent goal until 2018, he said, and GDP probably contracted last quarter.
Doing so, he has said, would help boost
inflation, now well below the
Fed's 2 - percent target,
back to healthier levels.
Back in December, the
Fed said it would hold the target short - term rate steady at least until unemployment had dropped to 6.5 %, assuming
inflation didn't rise past 2.5 %.
Yellen added that «as oil price declines and other transitory factors dissipate» the
Fed expects
inflation to move
back towards its 2 % target.
On
inflation running below the
Fed's target, Yellen said that though
inflation is running below its target, a «small undershoot» of the
Fed's employment target should facilitate
inflation moving
back towards that target.
The
Fed statement said: «The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it has seen some further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that
inflation will move
back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term.»
But if
inflation were to ramp from here unexpectedly and we started to see a pop in
inflation here, around the world, in Europe, Japan, for example, really start to see some true signs of real
inflation coming
back, that might force the
Fed to get more aggressive than what the market is currently looking for, not priced in.
Yet even
Fed policymakers who have raised the alarm on
inflation backed the central bank's decision on Wednesday to let its $ 600 billion bond - buying program run to its scheduled end in June.
The
Fed usually assigns an
inflation target, which currently stands at 2 %, and adjusts interest rates, prints money, or buys
back debt to reach such a target.
Bernanke shoots
back that he's got the best
inflation track record among
Fed chairman since World War II.
Bernanke, the widely criticized chairman of the Federal Reserve, shot
back Sunday evening at the
inflation hawks who claim quantitative easing — the
Fed's plan to buy $ 600 billion of Treasury debt over eight months, in hopes of boosting asset prices and nudging a sluggish economy forward — will send
inflation soaring and destroy the dollar.
Economic data has also come
back on the radar of investors who are contending with the potential for
inflation to hit the
Fed's 2 % target range, raising the risk of the central bank leaning toward a more aggressive hiking trajectory.
Inflation is creeping
back to the
Fed's 2 - percent target.
MarketWatch: So the doves on the
Fed, who think the central bank should wait until
inflation gets
back to 2 %, have lost?
The Trump administration pushes
back on such grim forecasts, saying it thinks
inflation will remain low - around the
Fed's 2 percent - for years to come, even with all the extra stimulus from the tax cuts and higher government spending.
For now, however, the
Fed appears willing to look through the soft
inflation data, sticking with the view that
inflation will move
back towards 2 %, supported by a tight labor market and a Philips curve model for
inflation.
Sky - high interest rates and two recessions occurred before the
Fed could finally break the
back of accelerating
inflation.
As for
inflation in general,
Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer has said that there is «good reason» to believe that
inflation will move
back up to the
Fed's annual target of 2 % as the US economy's untapped capacity gets used up and as the effect of the big dip in oil prices in the second half of 2014 wears off.
As usual, the
Fed chair hedged her bets somewhat, saying she wanted to see further improvement in labor market conditions and greater confidence that
inflation would move
back up to 2 % in the next few years, but, based on current trends, it seems that small, incremental hikes in base interest rates are looming on the horizon.
Given the already stretched resources,
inflation could come
back to haunt both investors and the
Fed.
Because the
Fed and other factors have kept the economy in a state of relatively low
inflation, the current secular bear has ground its way
back to the reality of the red zone.
As the economy or the
Fed reverses the adverse
inflation - rate trend
back toward price stability, P / E will trough at its lows and begin the long climb that drives secular bull markets.
Another rate hike, they said, would hurt the
Fed's goal of getting
inflation back up to 2 percent annually.
After a run of weak
inflation reports stretching
back several months, there was a slight uptick in the October reading of the
Fed's favored
inflation measure, the core personal consumption expenditures price index.
The emerging markets crisis, strength in the dollar, and weakness in commodity prices could frustrate the
Fed's expectations that
inflation will rise
back closer to 2 %.
When we evaluate the
Fed's dual mandate of maximizing employment and stabilizing
inflation, we see a pretty healthy labor market, one that is getting
back to pre-2008-2009 crisis levels, or even getting
back to levels not seen since the 1970s.
Easy money policies abroad push the dollar higher, hurting U.S. exporters and making it harder for the
Fed to get
inflation back up to its 2 percent target.
So ideally, the
Fed's stimulus could get the economy
back to a normal rate of growth before
inflation becomes a problem, at which point the
Fed could taper off its bond buying little by little and gracefully exit the picture.
SCHNEIDER: The number one metric and this gets
back into my comments about optionality for the
Fed, but the number one metric that the
Fed is going to be focused on is the tightness of the job market and wage pressures on the go - forward basis, so sure
inflation — headline
inflation has perked up a little bit.
The pull
back in prices since January relates to higher interest rates as
inflation is now running ahead of the 2 % target set by the
Fed.
The
Fed has printed a ton of money, and
inflation will inevitably come
back, and the dollar will weaken.
Now, that
inflation is
feeding back to the US, but slowly.
This happens because the
Fed generally raises rates only when
inflation pressures are mounting within the economy, and because
inflation devalues the mortgage -
backed securities upon which mortgage rates are based.
That allows the
Fed to hold
back its firepower for when things really start to look ugly, while at the same time hedging the
inflation risk.
To me, without much evidence, the
Fed is hoping that the economy is strong, and that
inflation moves
back down.
Paul Volcker, the newly appointed
Fed chairman, led a sharp shift in
Fed policy in October, 1979 which drove interest rates sky high, sent the economy into two
back - to -
back recessions and knocked
inflation out.
We are in uncharted territory here, but if excess money created simply flows automatically
back into the
Fed's coffers,
inflation should not be a concern (assuming that outright purchases are equivalent to term lending).
The
Fed has also indicated that it will only shift away from its extraordinarily accommodative monetary policy if
inflation moves
back toward 2 %.
A boost in productivity could also potentially have the added benefit of holding
back inflation and allowing the
Fed to keep interest rates lower for a longer period.