In our latest white paper, Senior Portfolio Manager Duane McAllister explains how the recent boost in short - term yields not only allows investors to once again earn a reasonable nominal return on their money without needing to take significant duration risk, it also provides an opportunity to earn a positive real return, since core
inflation measures remain below the Fed's 2.0 % target.
Not exact matches
«But
measures of domestically generated
inflation remain contained and
inflation is likely to fall back sharply next year as the influence of the factors temporarily raising
inflation diminishes and downward pressure from unemployment and spare capacity persists.
As the economy continues its rocky recovery, policy - makers are quick to point out that core
inflation, the key
measure upon which the Bank of Canada depends to set monetary policy and stave off destabilizing devaluations of currency,
remains in check.
Measures of core
inflation remain close to 2 per cent as the effects of past exchange rate depreciation and excess capacity continue to offset each other.
The Bank's three
measures of core
inflation remain below two per cent and wage growth is still subdued, consistent with ongoing excess capacity in the economy.
Measures of core
inflation should
remain close to 2 per cent.
China's consumer
inflation remained weak in December, while price declines at the factory gate level continued to deepen, suggesting weakness in the world's second - largest economy but giving policy makers more room to take easing
measures.
Measures of core
inflation remain close to 2 per cent, reflecting the offsetting influences of past exchange rate depreciation and excess capacity.
Next year, we will answer the question of whether the Bank should continue to focus on one pre-eminent
measure of core
inflation and, if so, whether our current core
measure will
remain in that role.
Overall, however, the bulk of the evidence continues to suggest tepid economic growth with moderate but persistent
inflation pressures, and the Market Climate for precious metals
remains favorable on our
measures.
As usual, I don't place too much emphasis on this sort of forecast, but to the extent that I make any comments at all about the outlook for 2006, the bottom line is this: 1) we can't rule out modest potential for stock appreciation, which would require the maintenance or expansion of already high price / peak earnings multiples; 2) we also should recognize an uncomfortably large potential for market losses, particularly given that the current bull market has now outlived the median and average bull, yet at higher valuations than most bulls have achieved, a flat yield curve with rising interest rate pressures, an extended period of internal divergence as
measured by breadth and other market action, and complacency at best and excessive bullishness at worst, as
measured by various sentiment indicators; 3) there is a moderate but still not compelling risk of an oncoming recession, which would become more of a factor if we observe a substantial widening of credit spreads and weakness in the ISM Purchasing Managers Index in the months ahead, and; 4) there
remains substantial potential for U.S. dollar weakness coupled with «unexpectedly» persistent
inflation pressures, particularly if we do observe economic weakness.
Inflation measures have been edging higher in the United States in recent months, in contrast to much of the developed world, where price pressures have
remained quiescent.
The annual
inflation rate in the United States, as
measured by the CPI, exceeded 20 percent in 1917, and
remained in double digits for the next three years (17.5, 14.9, and 15.8) before the partial reversal of 1921.
But with that said, the FOMC has stated that «market - based
measures of
inflation compensation
remain low».
Involving a mixture of fiscal, monetary and economic
measures, the policies — collectively known as Abenomics — have had few obvious successes, and
inflation has barely
remained positive over much of the period.
Expectations of
inflation, as
measured by the difference between nominal and indexed 10 - year bond yields,
remain at around 2.3 per cent.
The Fed rate statement also noted that «market - based
measures of
inflation compensation
remain low», a reference to soft wage growth, which is at 2.7 %, lower than the 3 % rate that the Fed would like to see.
It
remained at 2.5 per cent, based on the RPIX
measure of
inflation, from 1997 until December 2003, when it was changed to 2.0 per cent, based on the new Harmonised Consumer Price Index
measure of
inflation.
TIPS are considered an extremely low - risk investment since they are backed by the U.S. government and because the par value rises with
inflation, as
measured by the Consumer Price Index, while the interest rate
remains fixed.
The central bank's president, Mario Draghi, addressed the low
inflation issue by saying that the
measure of
inflation would
remain low over the upcoming months, but he would expect it to eventually rise back to the central bank's target rate of just under 2 %.
Market - based
measures of
inflation compensation
remain low; survey ‑ based
measures of longer - term
inflation expectations have
remained stable.
Inflation has picked up in recent months, but longer - term inflation expectations have remained stable and measures of underlying inflation are still
Inflation has picked up in recent months, but longer - term
inflation expectations have remained stable and measures of underlying inflation are still
inflation expectations have
remained stable and
measures of underlying
inflation are still
inflation are still subdued.
Measured on a year - over-year basis, core
inflation remains below the Fed's 2 % target.
Remaining interest payments come from the variable - rate portion, which changes twice a year based on
inflation, as
measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
Market - based
measures of
inflation compensation have declined somewhat; survey - based
measures of longer - term
inflation expectations have
remained stable.
There are three factors that led to monetary policy to be more asset - inflationary, leading the more credit - sensitive monetary aggregates to expand more aggressively while
measured consumer price
inflation remained low.
Market - based
measures of
inflation compensation
remain low; most survey - based
measures of longer - term
inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months.
Market - based
measures of
inflation compensation have moved up but
remain low; most survey - based
measures of longer - term
inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months.
Currently, the unemployment rate
remains elevated, and
measures of underlying
inflation continue to be somewhat low, relative to levels that the Committee judges to be consistent, over the longer run, with its dual mandate.
Next year, we will answer the question of whether the Bank should continue to focus on one pre-eminent
measure of core
inflation and, if so, whether our current core
measure will
remain in that role.
Measures of core
inflation should
remain close to 2 %.»
At the same time, the Federal Reserve's rate hikes will
remain measured, keeping
inflation quiescent.