If the current global recovery were to lose momentum, it would mean a less favourable environment for growth of the Australian economy, and thus
lower inflation outcomes in the medium term.
More recently, the lower
inflation outcomes largely reflect the 33 per cent appreciation of the Australian dollar since late 2001.
A higher trade - weighted value of the Australian dollar over the past year has contributed importantly to the
lower inflation outcomes.
A forward - looking focus is essential as policy adjustments affect activity and inflation with a lag and because of the crucial role of inflation expectations in shaping
actual inflation outcomes.
In addition, with a clearly defined inflation objective, it is important that the Reserve Bank continues to report on how it sees developments in the economy, currently and in prospect, affecting
expected inflation outcomes.
Movements in the exchange rate have had an important influence
on inflation outcomes recently, as they have over recent years.
This has been a remarkable outcome, given the sheer magnitude of the shock to the terms of trade (and hence, incomes), and also relative to the
higher inflation outcomes of previous terms of trade booms in Australia.
The speech examines the low
inflation outcomes across much of the world including Australia, the implications of this environment for the Bank's policy framework and recent monetary policy decisions.
The improved credibility of the central bank's commitment to keep inflation low and stable should, in turn, allow it to deliver
better inflation outcomes with fewer short - run costs to economic growth and employment.
That is, the intent is that over the course of the business cycle, the bulk of the distribution of year -
ended inflation outcomes should lie between 2 and 3 per cent, not that the annualised average inflation rate from the start of the business cycle to the end should necessarily lie between 2 and 3.
The distribution of
global inflation outcomes has a right tail as well as a left tail; over our five - year horizon, a breakout of inflation to the upside of central bank inflation targets is not as unlikely as many seem to assume.
In this way, we can arrive at a crude understanding of the paradox of disconnection: how volatile and often rapid monetary growth rates can be consistent with seemingly low and
stable inflation outcomes.
Median inflation uncertainty (that is, the uncertainty expressed by respondents regarding
future inflation outcomes) increased at both the one - year and the three - year ahead horizons, retreating from their series lows in both cases.
With the benefit of hindsight, given the lower - than -
expected inflation outcomes, this would have resulted in a significant undershooting of the inflation target.
Thus if the above chart does represent a trend change it would imply economic out - performance by China in terms of
higher inflation outcomes and more competitive exports relative to Japan.
Almost all of the public discussion at the time on the appropriate setting for monetary policy focused on
the inflation outcomes excluding the influence of the changes in the tax rate (Graph 4).
No doubt, there is a variety of forces working to produce such outcomes, but an important factor has been the degree of convergence in
inflation outcomes.
However, the averaging refers more to the distribution of
inflation outcomes than to a strict average of CPI outcomes.
Inflation outcomes have been broadly in line with the ECB's target of inflation close to, but less than, 2 per cent.
Also as to whether
its inflation outcomes are being pushed up (by a weaker currency) or pushed down (by a stronger currency).
He also simulated that under a «Japanese outcome of no inflation,» the yield would be 1 % and «
inflation outcome» yield would be at 7.5 %