The phrase
"inflation outlook" refers to predictions or expectations about how the prices of goods and services in an economy will change in the future. It indicates whether the prices will increase (known as inflation) or decrease (known as deflation).
Full definition
The one - year inflation expectation fell to 2.9 % from 3 %, while the five -
year inflation outlook fell to 2.7 % from 2.8 %.
These contrasting
inflation outlooks suggest further monetary policy divergence is ahead (read more on this divergence and its investing implications in our recent post Opportunities emerge as central banks diverge.).
«While some modest withdrawal of monetary policy stimulus will likely be required over time, consistent with achieving a two per cent inflation target, the more
muted inflation outlook and the beginnings of a more constructive evolution of the imbalances in the housing sector suggest that the timing of any such withdrawal is less imminent than previously anticipated.»
Given the downward revision to the growth profile and the later closing of the output gap, the Bank considers the risks around its
updated inflation outlook to be roughly balanced, albeit in a context of heightened uncertainty.
Despite the region's
firmer inflation outlook and recent market volatility, ECB President Mario Draghi said the central bank remained committed to firm and full implementation of its QE program.
The
global inflation outlook has been gaining considerable interest as the global synchronized economic upturn gathers pace and central banks start to think about normalizing policy.
Upon the surface, the latest fall in the US Core inflation rate, from 2.3 %, four months ago to 1.9 %, and the latest surge in US housing prices (as reflected by the Case - Shiller Index) present a somewhat puzzling divergence between the
US inflation outlook and housing prices.
«The downgrade reflects our concerns over a
deteriorating inflation outlook and the long - term depreciation and volatility of Turkey's exchange rate,» S&P said in a statement.
«There are indications that growth is likely to remain significantly below potential which, alongside an
improved inflation outlook, provides some scope for monetary policy easing,» he said.
Dollar weakness has carried on for the past few days as traders continued to adjust positions to account for the
downbeat inflation outlook shared by Yellen and most FOMC policymakers.
At its February meeting the Board weighed up all of this information and its implications for the balance of risks for the economy and the medium -
term inflation outlook.
The first notable wording change was the BoC's «more
muted inflation outlook», which was supported by the December Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by Statistics Canada.
Draghi said that the ECB is monitoring the exchange rate «with regard to their possible implications for
the inflation outlook.»
* Eyes on Fed's view of economy,
inflation outlook (Updates with early U.S. markets» activity, changes dateline, previous LONDON)
Repeating the bank's standard policy message, Draghi said the currency bloc's strong growth momentum has strengthened his confidence in
the inflation outlook but that patience and persistence with ECB policy were still needed.
The «
inflation outlook,» the «slack» in the Canadian economy and the «imbalances in the household sector» were all listed as things to watch, but Mr. Poloz offered no precision of the kind provided by Mr. Bernanke or Mr. Carney.
There was a clear, if implicit, understanding that, if the state of the macroeconomy and
the inflation outlook were to change materially, the central bank would respond appropriately.
If, as I have indicated, the U.S. growth and
inflation outlooks have not changed notably, then why have expectations about U.S. monetary policy shifted so much?
These considerations figured prominently in the Governing Council's deliberations, because the state of total demand in the economy relative to our production capacity is what drives
our inflation outlook.
The Federal Reserve signalled it is getting more confident in
the inflation outlook as it prepares for further increases in short - term interest rates...
«As the downside risks to
the inflation outlook dissolve, the Bank of Canada is likely to re-establish a tightening policy bias over the course of this year - we expect the first hike to the overnight rate in the second quarter of 2015,» said Wright.
We see 2017's surprising soft inflation patch as fleeting and expect markets to grow more confident in
the inflation outlook.
For now, Mr. Carney said he is content with his current policy stance, which is encompassed by the extraordinary pledge he made in April to leave the benchmark interest rate near zero until at least June, 2010, conditional on
the inflation outlook.
Our discussions focused on how we should look through the choppiness in recent data to see the underlying trends, and what these trends mean for
the inflation outlook.
Finally, as usual, we see a number of risks to
our inflation outlook.
And we repeatedly stressed that the pledge was conditional on
the inflation outlook.
Barring any dramatic change in the pace of activity or
the inflation outlook, I think that is still a best bet.
We see
the inflation outlook as negative for US Treasuries but potentially helping eurozone government bonds.
Wage developments remain an important source of uncertainty in assessing
the inflation outlook.
In assessing
the inflation outlook the Bank continues to assume that there will be no significant second - round effects on wages and prices flowing from the implementation of the GST.
The November Statement identified the pick - up in world oil prices in the second half of 2004 as the major risk to
the inflation outlook, and the higher level of oil prices did contribute to the upstream inflationary pressures in producer prices in the December quarter.
The introduction of the new tax system has complicated
the inflation outlook, while higher oil prices and the lower exchange rate have tended to push up inflation expectations.
The various measures of inflation expectations have diverged a little of late, though the differences are not great, and most observers continue to regard
the inflation outlook as benign (Table 18).
Although no changes are expected, the central bank is expected to upgrade its growth forecasts while downgrading
its inflation outlook.
In part, this increase might be a mechanical response of nominal yields to developments in world bond markets, rather than signalling a lasting change in the financial market's view of
the inflation outlook in Australia.
At present, my view on monetary policy is that
the inflation outlook following the completion of QE2 will be quite unstable, because small changes in interest rates are likely to induce very large changes in the willingness of individuals to hold base money (see Sixteen Cents).
The yield curve has also steepened and may steepen even more, as the driver for short - term rates are influenced by Fed fund moves, while economic growth and
the inflation outlook are influencing longer - term rates.
The inflation outlook I have just sketched out would be a pretty long period of divergence from the target.