They point to two
inflation risk factors: years of setting low rates by the Federal Reserve, and the possibility that recent tax cuts will cause the economy to overheat.
They point to two
inflation risk factors: years of setting low rates by the Federal Reserve, and the possibility that recent tax cuts will cause the economy to overheat.
Not exact matches
Related to that is whether
inflation really heats up: I think that could be a
risk factor.
High valuations, political
risk and, yes,
inflation are all
risk factors looming in the year ahead.
EM portfolio exposure contributes to
risk factor diversification, viz - a-viz
inflation related to commodities and China.
Moreover, as
inflation is less demand driven and the result of external
factors (Currency, commodity prices), raising interest rates
risks plunging the economy into a recession.
Among them are
factors I've discussed at length elsewhere — a weaker U.S. dollar, a steadily flattening yield curve, heightened market volatility, overvalued U.S. stocks, expectations of higher
inflation, trade war jitters, geopolitical
risks and more.
This likely reflects, in part, the realization that financial markets need to
factor in the
risk that wages and prices could grow too quickly, if there were too much fiscal and monetary stimulus — particularly with the economy currently at or beyond full employment and
inflation approaching the Fed's goal.
Given the absence of a public trading market of our common stock, and in accordance with the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants Accounting and Valuation Guide, Valuation of Privately - Held Company Equity Securities Issued as Compensation, our board of directors exercised reasonable judgment and considered numerous and subjective
factors to determine the best estimate of fair value of our common stock, including independent third - party valuations of our common stock; the prices at which we sold shares of our convertible preferred stock to outside investors in arms - length transactions; the rights, preferences, and privileges of our convertible preferred stock relative to those of our common stock; our operating results, financial position, and capital resources; current business conditions and projections; the lack of marketability of our common stock; the hiring of key personnel and the experience of our management; the introduction of new products; our stage of development and material
risks related to our business; the fact that the option grants involve illiquid securities in a private company; the likelihood of achieving a liquidity event, such as an initial public offering or a sale of our company given the prevailing market conditions and the nature and history of our business; industry trends and competitive environment; trends in consumer spending, including consumer confidence; and overall economic indicators, including gross domestic product, employment,
inflation and interest rates, and the general economic outlook.
Together, these
factors generate a zone within which variations in either
inflation - outlook
risks or financial stability
risks may be tolerated.
As usual, I don't place too much emphasis on this sort of forecast, but to the extent that I make any comments at all about the outlook for 2006, the bottom line is this: 1) we can't rule out modest potential for stock appreciation, which would require the maintenance or expansion of already high price / peak earnings multiples; 2) we also should recognize an uncomfortably large potential for market losses, particularly given that the current bull market has now outlived the median and average bull, yet at higher valuations than most bulls have achieved, a flat yield curve with rising interest rate pressures, an extended period of internal divergence as measured by breadth and other market action, and complacency at best and excessive bullishness at worst, as measured by various sentiment indicators; 3) there is a moderate but still not compelling
risk of an oncoming recession, which would become more of a
factor if we observe a substantial widening of credit spreads and weakness in the ISM Purchasing Managers Index in the months ahead, and; 4) there remains substantial potential for U.S. dollar weakness coupled with «unexpectedly» persistent
inflation pressures, particularly if we do observe economic weakness.
Fixed income investments are subject to various
risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality,
inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other
factors.
Our analysis of valuation considers not only earnings, but free cash flows, dividends, book values, revenues, profit margins, interest rates,
inflation,
risk premiums and other
factors.
The current situation, in summary, suggests an outlook that is consistent with the medium - term
inflation target but subject to two broad sources of
risk — the potential for further weakness arising from external
factors, and the destabilising influence of a growing imbalance in the domestic credit market.
External
factors will continue to reduce growth in the remainder of the year, but it is unclear whether this will be sufficient to forestall
inflation risks.
A number of
factors are likely to contribute to maintaining the good recent performance on
inflation in the near future, with wages developments representing the main
risk to a favourable outlook further ahead.
EM portfolio exposure contributes to
risk factor diversification, viz - a-viz
inflation related to commodities and China.
Forex exchange rates depend on many
factors like monetary policy, currency
inflation, and geo - political
risks that may not be forseen.
Using my desired asset allocation, we are looking at an average historical average real return (after
inflation) of 8.8 % since 1970 with a standard deviation (the
risk factor) of 17.3 %.
Since TIPS securities
factor in predicted
inflation and are backed by the government, they are considered to be low -
risk investments.
For income funds, if other
risk factors were considered, such as credit
risk, interest - rate
risk, or
inflation risk, rankings on the ribbons would vary.
Keep in mind that your investment plan should consider other
factors such as
inflation, your
risk tolerance and financial goals.
The percentages of the Portfolio's assets allocated to each Underlying Fund are: Vanguard Total Bond Market II Index Fund 14 % Vanguard Total International Bond Index Fund 5 % Vanguard Short - Term
Inflation - Protected Securities Index Fund 6 % Vanguard Federal Money Market Fund 75 % Through its investment in Vanguard Total Bond Market II Index Fund, the Portfolio indirectly invests in a broadly diversified collection of securities that, in the aggregate, approximates the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Float Adjusted Index in terms of key
risk factors and other characteristics.
The market value of a portfolio may decline as a result of a number of
factors, including interest rate
risk, credit
risk,
inflation / deflation
risk, currency
risk, mortgage and asset - backed securities
risk, U.S. Government securities
risk, foreign investment
risk and derivatives
risk.
Other
risk factors are
inflation and single security
risk.
Also, many of the
risk - free savings and investment options will not keep pace with
inflation, so it is essential for you to
factor that into your equation.
The market value of the portfolio may decline as a result of a number of other
factors, including interest rate
risk, credit
risk,
inflation / deflation
risk, mortgage and asset - backed securities
risk, US Government securities
risk, foreign investment
risk, currency
risk, derivatives
risk, leverage
risk and liquidity
risk.
The market value of the portfolio may decline as a result of a number of
factors, including interest rate
risk, credit
risk,
inflation / deflation
risk, mortgage and asset - backed securities
risk, U.S. Government securities
risk, foreign investment
risk, currency
risk, derivatives
risk, leverage
risk and liquidity
risk.
In contrast to a classic
risk factor like a rocket seal failure,
inflation is a predictable and more or less continual process that impacts all investments equally.
Many
factors affect the value, or price, of a particular bond, but the two big influences are 1) future
inflation expectations (as reflected in general interest rates) and 2) the
risk of Corp A «defaulting» — not meeting its obligation to make each year the $ 50 interest payment and, eventually, repaying the $ 1,000 bond principal.
Obviously, each individual's circumstances are unique and there are many
factors to consider including, the rate of interest, the returns on investment, the rate of
inflation, your tax rate, your attitude about debt, your attitude about
risk, and your ability to stick to a disciplined, long - term investment strategy.
Commodities investing entail significant
risk as commodity prices can be extremely volatile due to wide range of
factors Bond funds contain interest rate
risk (as interest rates rise bond prices usually fall); the
risk of issuer default; issuer credit
risk; liquidity
risk; and
inflation risk.
Factor investing is a strategy for constructing portfolios based on macroeconomic
factors (such as credit,
inflation, and liquidity) and style
factors (cap - size, balance - sheet strength, value, momentum, and volatility) to improve returns while constraining
risks.
General economic
factors,
inflation, market value fluctuations, and general conservatism are all
risks to every investment.
Effectively, the investment of that compensation needs to incorporate and
factor in the legal and discount rate principles,
inflation (prices and earnings) in a low -
risk environment for investors who very often have suffered catastrophic, life changing injuries resulting in individual short, medium and long - term requirements.
This tool also takes into consideration several other important
factors such as
inflation, tax rate,
risk appetite etc..
Whichever option you ultimately choose, low
risk,
inflation consideration, and ongoing expenditure for maintaining the plan are some of the
factors to keep in mind.
If «living too long» is another
risk factor then don't you think in a growing economy like India,
inflation will eat away the nominal returns generated by traditional products like these?
«On balance, the
risks to higher
inflation outweigh lower
inflation, but in our estimation, most of the reflationary
factors have already been baked into current interest rates, and
inflation is likely to increase only modestly over the next two years.