Building on continued progress in improving the effectiveness of
its inflation targeting framework, BOG remains committed to maintaining an appropriate monetary policy stance to bring inflation down toward its medium - term objective.
On the monetary side,
the inflation targeting framework the Reserve Bank has been following for a decade and a half will guide adjustments to interest rates.
This move was what the flexible
inflation targeting framework suggests should happen.
Third, I am inclined to agree with recent work in the Bank of England that suggests that it is possible, at least in principle, to embed this discussion within a medium - term
inflation targeting framework.
In this situation,
the inflation targeting framework would say to raise interest rates to a setting which would bring inflation back to the target.
If it were the case that undershooting the target for a period while achieving reasonable growth was the «least bad» option available,
the inflation targeting framework has the requisite degree of flexibility to allow such a course.
The inflation wars of the 1970s and 1980s led to a broad consensus on two fronts among academics and policymakers: First, central banks are responsible and accountable for price stability, which was often acknowledged through the formal adoption of
an inflation targeting framework.
Not exact matches
Subdued
inflation forced the BOJ to revamp its policy
framework in 2016 to one better suited for a long - term battle against deflation, which
targets interest rates instead of the pace of money printing.
Analysts who follow the Fed complain that its
framework has become confusing: low unemployment and
inflation close to the 2 %
target would not seem consistent with a policy rate more aligned to a recession.
The speech makes clear that the Bank's monetary policy
frameworks centres around a flexible
inflation target that aims to deliver an average rate of
inflation of between 2 - 3 per cent over time and in a way that best serves the public interest.
The flexible
inflation target served as a useful
framework to think about the Asian crisis.
The next section provides details of the
inflation -
targeting framework in Australia, focusing on the aspects of the
framework in Australia that provide scope for greater flexibility.
Increased communication and transparency is beneficial for any monetary policy
framework but it has played a particularly prominent role in
inflation -
targeting regimes.
There are a number of aspects of the Australian
framework which have the potential to deliver greater flexibility in the practical implementation of the
inflation target.
The past two decades have seen the increasingly widespread adoption of
inflation targeting as the
framework for monetary policy.
The
inflation -
targeting framework is being severely stress - tested at the moment.
In that regard, it is worth noting that the three major economic areas, none of which have an explicit
inflation -
targeting framework have suffered at least as large an economic dislocation as the
inflation -
targeting countries, and in the case of Japan, considerably larger.
The global financial crisis is providing a significant stress test of the
inflation -
targeting framework, including in Australia.
Indeed, the financial markets anticipated significantly more tightening than actually occurred, reflecting their lack of faith in the credibility of the relatively new
inflation -
targeting framework.
A long - standing criticism of the
inflation -
targeting framework was that it had not been properly tested.
It assumed that the boost to the price level would be once - off, and that the credibility of the
inflation -
targeting framework would ensure that
inflation expectations remained anchored at the
target rate.
The
inflation target has served as a useful organising
framework for this document.
[5] The
inflation -
targeting framework in Australia was subsequently verbally endorsed by the government of the day, but was not formally endorsed until 1996, when a new government signed a letter of agreement with a new Governor, upon his appointment.
Before discussing the asset price issue, again it is worth repeating that the issue is whether
inflation targeting itself led to monetary policy settings being easier than would have been the case in other
frameworks.
Equivalently, the experience also suggests that a rigid application of an
inflation -
targeting framework may not be necessary, and that there may be elements of the Australian approach which may be applicable to emerging market economies considering adopting an
inflation target.
In part for this reason, at the inception of the
inflation target there was no change to the legislated
framework, which has not materially altered since its inception in 1959 (Table 1).
To illustrate the practical application of the
inflation -
targeting framework in Australia and its flexibility, it is useful to focus on the operation of monetary policy in three particular episodes (Graph 2).
In 1993, the Australian
framework was at the flexible end of the spectrum of
inflation -
targeting practice, and was criticised for being too lax.
That
framework's been in place since the early 1990s, we have hit the
target over that 20 year period, the average
inflation rate's pretty close to 2.5 per cent, so we regard that as successful by the terms of the definition that we set ourselves and I think that's made a big contribution to economic stability more generally and I don't think it's an accident that that period of fairly low predictable
inflation has coincided with pretty good sustained growth in the economy.
Australia's
inflation -
targeting framework has remained basically unchanged since its adoption in 1993.
Notwithstanding this, the
inflation -
targeting framework is clearly being severely tested in the current circumstance.
Speeches by the Governor and senior officials of the RBA have been a primary vehicle to enhance the status and understanding of the
inflation -
targeting framework in Australia.
Once it is clear that such a setting had done its job, the
framework calls for it to be replaced by one more likely to keep
inflation at the
target.
In this case, the
framework would call for a setting of interest rates which would, over time, allow
inflation to go back up to the
target.
But a well - designed
inflation -
targeting framework allows for deviations from
target, for a while, in the face of shocks.
For
inflation targeting countries, it would certainly be a retrograde step in my view to be perceived as walking away from a
framework which has for a decade delivered good results, in favour of some explicit pursuit of asset prices per se.
The centrepiece of the
framework for monetary policy is a medium - term
target for
inflation.
Since the early 1990s,
inflation targeting has formed the basis of Australia's monetary policy
framework.
The principal medium - term objective of monetary policy is to control
inflation, so an
inflation target is thus the centrepiece of the monetary policy
framework.
It restates the Bank's approach to making monetary policy decisions within the
framework of a medium - term
inflation target, in way that supports sustainable economic growth and serves the public interest.
If the Fed believed that a 2 percent
inflation target was appropriate at the beginning of 2012 when it believed the neutral real rate was above 2 percent, I can not see any argument for not adjusting the
target or altering the
framework when the neutral real rate is very plausibly close to zero.
Australia's flexible
inflation -
targeting framework does not aim to fine - tune economic outcomes, but rather is designed to ensure that
inflation remains on track over the medium term.
Because the flexibility in our
framework allows it, we reserve the right to choose our policy tactics so that our actions don't significantly worsen financial stability concerns by opting for a policy path that aims to return
inflation to
target over a longer time frame than normal.
«
Inflation targeting» summarises the system widely adopted in the last two decades on a nation - by - nation basis, involving independent central banks using interest rates to keep inflation at a target level in the framework of a New Keynesian macroeconom
Inflation targeting» summarises the system widely adopted in the last two decades on a nation - by - nation basis, involving independent central banks using interest rates to keep
inflation at a target level in the framework of a New Keynesian macroeconom
inflation at a
target level in the
framework of a New Keynesian macroeconomic model.
Mr. Speaker, consistent with our medium - term development policy
framework, we have set the following macroeconomic
targets for the medium term (2018 - 2021): • Real GDP to grow at an average rate of 6.2 percent between 2018 and 2020; •
Inflation to stay within the
target band of 8 ± 2 %; • Overall fiscal deficit to remain within the fiscal rule of 3 - 5 percent; • Primary balance expected to improve from a surplus of 0.2 percent of GDP in 2017 and remain around 2.0 percent in the medium term; and • Gross International Reserves to cover at least 4 months of imports.
The S&P Shift to Retirement Income and Decumulation (STRIDE) Indices combine a
target date glide path with a new risk management
framework to serve as a benchmark for investors saving to fund consumption in retirement, reflecting a transition from wealth creation to
inflation - adjusted retirement income.