Sentences with phrase «inflation than bottom»

Corporate accountability may weaken even further as stock appreciation becomes more dependent on index inflation than bottom - line performance.

Not exact matches

As usual, I don't place too much emphasis on this sort of forecast, but to the extent that I make any comments at all about the outlook for 2006, the bottom line is this: 1) we can't rule out modest potential for stock appreciation, which would require the maintenance or expansion of already high price / peak earnings multiples; 2) we also should recognize an uncomfortably large potential for market losses, particularly given that the current bull market has now outlived the median and average bull, yet at higher valuations than most bulls have achieved, a flat yield curve with rising interest rate pressures, an extended period of internal divergence as measured by breadth and other market action, and complacency at best and excessive bullishness at worst, as measured by various sentiment indicators; 3) there is a moderate but still not compelling risk of an oncoming recession, which would become more of a factor if we observe a substantial widening of credit spreads and weakness in the ISM Purchasing Managers Index in the months ahead, and; 4) there remains substantial potential for U.S. dollar weakness coupled with «unexpectedly» persistent inflation pressures, particularly if we do observe economic weakness.

The bottom line: Given the significant levels of debt that remain on household and government balance sheets, inflation is likely to remain lower than what we experienced in periods leading up to the financial crisis.

e.g. on a universe of all liquid stocks with pretty generous liquidity filters (price > $ 1, mcap > $ 100 million, on the market for at least 1 year, inflation - adjusted daily dollar volume in the last 63 days > $ 100,000), before friction, and hold for 5 days (no other sell rule), tested on all start dates Sept 2, 1997 forward to Aug 18, 2015 and then averaged CAGR, leaving an average of 3360 stocks in the universe to then test: a. 17.6 % cagr bottom 5 % of stocks left by bad 4 day return (requiring price > ma200 was slightly worse than this at 17.4 %; but requiring price < ma5 was better at 18.1 %) b. 16.0 % cagr bottom 5 % of stocks left by bad 5 day return c. 14.6 % cagr bottom 5 % by rsi (2) d. 14.7 % cagr for rsi (2) < 5 I have tested longer backtests on simpler liquidity filters (since my tests can't use all of the above filters on very long tests) and this still holds true: bad return in the last 4 or 5 days beats low rsi (2) for 1 week holds.

In contrast, households in the bottom quintile experienced an average growth of about 1 percent per year in their inflation - adjusted after - tax income over the same period, making that income 46 percent higher in 2013 than it was in 1979, CBO estimates.