These days the Fed seems more concerned about
inflation than recession and had raised the federal funds rate to just over 5 percent as of mid-2006 to head off what it fears is a potentially overheated economy.
Not exact matches
«Markets are coming to the conclusion that the U.S. economy is close to overheating and therefore that the risks of
inflation are bigger
than the risks of a
recession,» Deutsche Bank economist Torsten Slok said, quoted by the Financial Times.
Yet while the Fed has eased policy to lower joblessness and raise
inflation in the wake of the 2007 - 2009
recession, central banks such as the BoE have also launched accommodative bond - buying programs despite higher -
than - desired
inflation rates.
Back then, policymakers feared
inflation less
than a
recession.
As usual, I don't place too much emphasis on this sort of forecast, but to the extent that I make any comments at all about the outlook for 2006, the bottom line is this: 1) we can't rule out modest potential for stock appreciation, which would require the maintenance or expansion of already high price / peak earnings multiples; 2) we also should recognize an uncomfortably large potential for market losses, particularly given that the current bull market has now outlived the median and average bull, yet at higher valuations
than most bulls have achieved, a flat yield curve with rising interest rate pressures, an extended period of internal divergence as measured by breadth and other market action, and complacency at best and excessive bullishness at worst, as measured by various sentiment indicators; 3) there is a moderate but still not compelling risk of an oncoming
recession, which would become more of a factor if we observe a substantial widening of credit spreads and weakness in the ISM Purchasing Managers Index in the months ahead, and; 4) there remains substantial potential for U.S. dollar weakness coupled with «unexpectedly» persistent
inflation pressures, particularly if we do observe economic weakness.
This could include setting targets for nominal GDP growth rather
than inflation, investing in a wider range of risk assets, making plans to allow base rates to turn negative, and underscoring the importance of avoiding a new
recession.
Inflation has come down faster
than everyone expected, but it is not just the
recession, or a fluke, that has caused it to decline.
In 1982, the positive effect of the 2.5 % decline in
inflation was more
than offset by a 9.4 % drop in earnings (
recession).
What I've seen is even adjusted for
inflation, every time credit has risen by less
than 2 % in the US going back to 1950, the US goes into a
recession.
-- Said the Fed needs to keep slowly raising rates, rather
than waiting until
inflation hits its 2 percent target, to avoid a «boom - bust» economy whereby it might eventually have to tighten so aggressively as to tip the economy into
recession.
Steadily rising prices, the danger of continuing
inflation, an economic
recession as bad or worse
than the Great Depression of the early 1930s, and widespread unemployment that can hit almost anywhere give plenty to worry about.
How the Government's
inflation trick makes pensioners, commuters and students poorer The financial crash has left the poor even poorer
than they were before the
recession — while the rich have got richer, a new report has revealed
Florida and 28 other states are spending less on education now
than they were before the 2008
recession after an adjustment for
inflation, according to a study by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.
▪
Inflation hurts: Although the numbers might look bigger, this year's average pay of $ 51,214 means that teachers still have about $ 5,000 less in purchasing power
than they did before the
recession.
The S&P 500 Index has risen more
than 540 percent (not adjusted for
inflation) from January 1995 to the end of 2014.1 That includes multiple
recessions, the turn - of - the - century dot - com bust, the financial crisis, and the resulting Great
Recession.