Despite previous studies indicating that intraseasonal oscillations in the northeastern Pacific Ocean can significantly
influence cyclone activity in the western Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, dynamic models have so far been unable to accurately reproduce this relationship.
Not exact matches
Methods: While a few studies in the past investigated the
influence of climate phenomena such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Madden - Julian Oscillation on the inter-annual variability of tropical
cyclones in the post-monsoon Bay of Bengal, changes in long - term
cyclone activity are less well understood.
Since the climate response to the North Atlantic SST anomalies is primarily forced at the low latitudes and the AWP is in the path of or a birthplace for Atlantic tropical
cyclones, the
influence of the AMO on Atlantic tropical
cyclone activity may operate through the mechanism of the AWP - induced atmospheric changes.
While it is «likely» that anthropogenic
influences are behind the changes in cold days and warm days, there is only «medium confidence» that they are behind changes in extreme rainfall events, and «low confidence» in attributing any changes in tropical
cyclone activity to greenhouse gas emissions or anything else humanity has done.
When we examine the relationship between SST and intensity, we find that although SSTs contribute significantly to tropical
cyclone activity, their
influence varies markedly over time.
The uncertainties in the historical tropical
cyclone records, the incomplete understanding of the physical mechanisms linking tropical
cyclone metrics to climate change, and the degree of tropical
cyclone variability provide only low confidence for the attribution of any detectable changes in tropical
cyclone activity to anthropogenic
influences.
Influence of Pacific Decadal Oscillation on the relationship between ENSO and tropical
cyclone activity in the Bay of Bengal during October — December The relationship between ENSO and tropical
cyclones (TCs)
activity in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) during October — December under cold (1950 — 1974) and warm (1975 — 2006) phase of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is investigated.
The main modulating
influence on tropical
cyclone activity in the western North Pacific appears to be the changes in atmospheric circulation associated with ENSO, rather than local SSTs (Liu and Chan, 2003; Chan and Liu, 2004).
However, a detectable and perhaps substantial anthropogenic
influence on Atlantic tropical
cyclone activity can not be ruled out in the future.
This eastward moving pulse of anomalous variations in rainfall, wind, sea surface temperatures, and clouds in the tropics typically recurs every 30 — 60 days, creating a pattern that profoundly
influences global weather and climate systems, including monsoons, tropical
cyclone activity, and El Niño — Southern Oscillation events.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's newest High Resolution Atmospheric Model captures the
influence of intraseasonal oscillations on tropical
cyclone activity.
However, to gain insight on the
influence of climate change on Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane frequency, we must focus on longer (> 100 yr) records of Atlantic hurricane
activity since very strong year - to - year and decade - to - decade variability appears in records of Atlantic tropical
cyclones.