These cycles definitely do
influence hurricane intensity, but they can't be the whole story, Curry said.
Of these factors, only rising sea surface temperature was found to
influence hurricane intensity in a statistically significant way over a long - term basis.
... «dust emissions have a wide impact on climate and weather, from modifying rainfall thousands of miles away, to
influencing hurricane intensity and affecting air quality».
Not exact matches
Recent advances have improved NOAA's
intensity forecasts by 20 percent, but there are so many variables
influencing the developing of a
hurricane — from the energy they draw from the oceans to their interactions with the surrounding environment and their dynamic inner cores — that storms like Matthew befuddle many experts.
When discussing the
influence of anthropogenic global warming on
hurricane or tropical cyclone (TC) frequency and
intensity (see e.g. here, here, and here), it is important to examine observed past trends.
If we're considering the risk of
hurricane damages, and not just overall basin activity, then the effect of increased vertical wind shear would seem to be (at least) twofold — it not only reduces potential
intensity, but it also
influences the steering of
hurricanes (since
hurricanes are basically steered by the background flow plus a beta drift).
Based on the results of the causality tests, the author concludes that it is global near - surface air temperature that
influences sea surface temperature, and not the other way around — which supports the global warming - induced increase in
hurricane intensity.
So, on the one hand you have the claim that Atlantic
hurricane intensity is controlled by the AMO, whose mechanism is poorly understood but which has something to do with the meridional overturning circulation, which is
influenced by the sinking of water off of Greenland.
On the question of
hurricanes, the theoretical arguments that more energy and water vapor in the atmosphere should lead to stronger storms are really sound (after all, storm
intensity increases going from pole toward equator), but determining precisely how human
influences (so including GHGs [greenhouse gases] and aerosols, and land cover change) should be changing
hurricanes in a system where there are natural external (solar and volcanoes) and internal (e.g., ENSO, NAO [El Nino - Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation]-RRB-
influences is quite problematic — our climate models are just not good enough yet to carry out the types of sensitivity tests that have been done using limited area
hurricane models run for relatively short times.
A (2) Modern warming, glacier and sea ice recession, sea level rise, drought and
hurricane intensities... are all occurring at unprecedentedly high and rapid rates, and the effects are globally synchronous (not just regional)... and thus dangerous consequences to the global biosphere and human civilizations loom in the near future as a consequence of anthropogenic
influences.
[Response: This is just two bits of speculation on my part, but it is conceivable that a) the
influence of ENSO is of a different character than the
influence from SST (i.e. there is more happening than a similar increase in
hurricane intensity / number), and ii) the different frequency distribution of ENSO events compared to variations in SST (or PDI) mean that the signal is stronger compared to the noise in that frequency band.