Sentences with phrase «influence on climate variability»

Hypothesis 1: Human influence on climate variability and change is of minimal importance, and natural causes dominate climate variations and changes on all time scales.

Contributions from the following topics (but not exclusively) are invited: • Solar irradiance and energetic particle impacts on the atmosphere • Upper atmospheric dynamical variability and coupling between atmospheric layers • Solar variations and stratosphere - troposphere coupling • Solar influence on climate variability • Solar irradiance (spectral and total irradiance) variations

Not exact matches

While natural sources of climate variability are significant, multiple lines of evidence indicate that human influences have had an increasingly dominant effect on the climate warming observed since the mid-twentieth century.

A study led by scientists at the GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel shows that the ocean currents influence the heat exchange between ocean and atmosphere and thus can explain climate variability on decadal time scales.

However, as the atmospheric CO2 rises — due to the almost exponential increase in emissions from industrial sources — the influence of solar variability on the Earth's climate will most likely decrease, and its relative contribution will be far surpassed by «greenhouse» gases.

Methods: While a few studies in the past investigated the influence of climate phenomena such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Madden - Julian Oscillation on the inter-annual variability of tropical cyclones in the post-monsoon Bay of Bengal, changes in long - term cyclone activity are less well understood.

But in areas with complex landscapes like Montana, data points so widely spaced are inadequate to reflect variability in terrain and vegetation and their influence on climate.

Jiacan has worked on several projects on climate dynamics, including the response of large - scale circulations in the warming climate, its effects on regional weather patterns and extreme events, tropical influence on mid-latitude weather, and dynamical mechanisms of sub-seasonal variability of mid-latitude jet streams.

It is important to note that any potential effects will be spatially and temporally variable, depending on current forest conditions, local site characteristics, environmental influences, and annual and decadal patterns of climate variability, such as the El Niño - Southern Oscillation cycle, which can drive regional weather and climate conditions.

Understanding the influence of solar variability on the Earth's climate requires knowledge of solar variability, solar interactions, and the mechanisms explain the response of the Earth's climate system.

Jo's scientific interests include radiative transfer in the atmosphere, climate modelling, radiative forcing of climate change and the influence of solar irradiance variability on climate.

Observed changes in ocean heat content have now been shown to be inconsistent with simulated natural climate variability, but consistent with a combination of natural and anthropogenic influences both on a global scale, and in individual ocean basins.

It is, however, the variability on large scales influenced by interactions of the atmosphere with other components of the climate system that is predictable.

It seems oddly tendentious to deny for instance the role of natural variability on the basis that some of the recent changes in these long standing climate patterns may be influenced by greenhouse gases.

Brown, P. T., W. Li, and S. P. Xie (2015), Regions of significant influence on unforced global mean surface air temperature variability in climate models, J. Geophys.

When will «the use of the latest information on external influences on the climate system and adjusting for internal variability associated with ENSO» make its way into the projection model?

US CLIVAR, a US Climate Variability and Predictability Program, held a recent conference on Arctic Change and Its Influence on Mid-Latitude Climate and Weather Agenda https://usclivar.org/meetings/2017-arctic-midlatitude-workshop-agenda with many interesting science perspectives on this super interesting topic.

So: The study finds a fingerprint of anthropogenic influences on large scale increase in precipitation extremes, with remaining uncertainties — namely that there is still a possibility that the widespread increase in heavy precipitation could be due to an unusual event of natural variability.The intensification of extreme rainfall is expected with warming, and there is a clear physical mechanism for it, but it is never possible to completely separate a signal of external forcing from climate variability — the separation will always be statistical in nature.

Natural climate variability — including the periodic swings between El Nià ± o and La Nià ± a conditions in the Pacific — will sometimes overshadow global warming's influence on hurricanes, Trenberth said.

A series of sensitivity tests show that our detection results are robust to observational data coverage change, interpolation methods, influence of natural climate variability on observations, and different model sampling (see Supplementary Information).

Has there really been a substantial neglect of solar influences on climate and natural internal variability?

«Solar Variability Influences on Weather and Climate: Possible Connections through Cosmic Ray Fluxes and Storm Intensification.»

This has resulted in a very substantial neglect of solar influences on climate and natural internal variability.

We suggest that North Atlantic millennial - scale climate variability is associated with rearrangements of the atmospheric circulation with far - reaching influences on the climate.»

This change in long timescale climate variability could have influences on extreme events and seasonal variability.

Internal variability will continue to be a major influence on climate, particularly in the near - term and at the regional scale.

Our ability to quantify the human influence on global climate is currently limited because the expected signal is still emerging from the noise of natural variability, and because there are uncertainties in key factors.

Further analyses of long coupled model runs will be critical to resolve the influence of the ocean thermohaline circulation and other natural climate variations on Arctic climate and to determine whether natural climate variability will make the Arctic more or less vulnerable to anthropogenic global warming.»

The intent of the working group is to spearhead a dedicated effort across the national and international climate communities to advance progress on identifying anthropogenic influences on weather and climate amidst the «noise» of internal variability.

«On forced temperature changes, internal variability, and the AMO» «Tracking the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation through the last 8,000 years» «The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation as a dominant factor of oceanic influence on climate» «The role of Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation in the global mean temperature variability» «The North Atlantic Oscillation as a driver of rapid climate change in the Northern Hemisphere» «The Atlanto - Pacific multidecade oscillation and its imprint on the global temperature record» «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» «North Atlantic Multidecadal SST Oscillation: External forcing versus internal variability» «Forced and internal twentieth - century SST trends in the North Atlantic» «Interactive comment on «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» by J. Mikšovský et al.» «Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures&raquOn forced temperature changes, internal variability, and the AMO» «Tracking the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation through the last 8,000 years» «The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation as a dominant factor of oceanic influence on climate» «The role of Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation in the global mean temperature variability» «The North Atlantic Oscillation as a driver of rapid climate change in the Northern Hemisphere» «The Atlanto - Pacific multidecade oscillation and its imprint on the global temperature record» «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» «North Atlantic Multidecadal SST Oscillation: External forcing versus internal variability» «Forced and internal twentieth - century SST trends in the North Atlantic» «Interactive comment on «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» by J. Mikšovský et al.» «Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures&raquon climate» «The role of Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation in the global mean temperature variability» «The North Atlantic Oscillation as a driver of rapid climate change in the Northern Hemisphere» «The Atlanto - Pacific multidecade oscillation and its imprint on the global temperature record» «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» «North Atlantic Multidecadal SST Oscillation: External forcing versus internal variability» «Forced and internal twentieth - century SST trends in the North Atlantic» «Interactive comment on «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» by J. Mikšovský et al.» «Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures&raquon the global temperature record» «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» «North Atlantic Multidecadal SST Oscillation: External forcing versus internal variability» «Forced and internal twentieth - century SST trends in the North Atlantic» «Interactive comment on «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» by J. Mikšovský et al.» «Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures&raquon «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» by J. Mikšovský et al.» «Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures»

The apparent conflict illustrates that understanding the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and other natural variability, is critical for understanding the human influence on climate Yet, they are largely ignored by the IPCC, and its followers including NOAA, and NASA.

We believe this is the first attempt to estimate the influence of mechanical thinning on runoff over multi-year broad - scale restoration projects that accounts for the effects of climate variability.

There are much better arguments on other items where (C) AGW is on thin ice: climate models which fail on a lot of items like cloud cover, overestimate the influence of aerosols, can't cope with natural variability and therefore fail in their temperature forecasts.

This correlation could indicate that the AMO plays an important intermediary role in the influence of the Pacific ENSO on world climate; alternatively, it might indicate that variability in the thermohaline flow plays a bigger role than had previously been recognized.

This may be true (there is still plenty of debate on that point) but since there are no good explanations of past natural variability, that merely points out our ignorance of all the factors influencing the climate system.

The influence of large - scale climate modes of variability (the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-RRB- on APF magnitude is also assessed, and placed in context with these more localized controls.

Betts says:» the authors seem to assume that climate science is entirely focussed on anthropogenic climate change, and that natural variability is only researched as a supplementary issue in order to support the conclusions regarding anthropogenic influence.»

Here is their description of the work: The influence of solar variability on Earth's climate over centennial to millennial time scales is the subject of considerable debate.

In fact, they state that the data «clearly show» that «strong natural variability has been characteristic of the Arctic at all time scales considered,» and they reiterate that the data suggest «that the human influence on rate and size of climate change thus far does not stand out strongly from other causes of climate change.»»

While natural sources of climate variability are significant, multiple lines of evidence indicate that human influences have had an increasingly dominant effect on global climate warming observed since the mid-twentieth century.

This approach provides a hybrid assessment of the combined influence of anthropogenic climate change [determined from the ensemble - mean of the CESM - LE or from the multi-model Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) archive (Taylor et al. 2012)-RSB- and observed NAO variability on climate over the coming decades.

http://www.journals.royalsoc.ac.uk/content/h844264320314105/ «There are many interesting palaeoclimate studies that suggest that solar variability had an influence on pre-industrial climate.

Based on temperature records from 1864 to 2002, the odds of such a heatwave occurring are about 1 in 10 million.4 An event like the 2003 heatwave becomes much more likely after factoring in the observed warming of 2 °F over Europe and increased weather variability.5 In addition, comparing computer models of climate with and without human contribution shows that human influence has roughly quadrupled the odds of a European summer as hot as or hotter than the summer of 2003.6

I agree gbaikie that models are not appropriate for prediction but could assist in sorting out natural variability as distinct from anthropic influences on weather and climate.

«Understanding the internal ocean variability and its influence on climate is imperative for society.

Our results have important implications concerning the influence of North Atlantic sea surface temperatures on East Asian climate, and provide support for the possibility of an AMO signature on global multidecadal climate variability.»

The strong influence of natural variability on surface air temperatures is the reason that climate researchers regularly point out that any record shorter than around 20 - 30 years is not useful for detecting long - term trends associated with anthropogenic warming.

However, Solanki et al made the same point as we do: «This comparison shows without requiring any recourse to modeling that since roughly 1970 the solar influence on climate (through the channels considered here) can not have been dominant» (Solanki et al., 2003), and: «Although the rarity of the current episode of high average sunspot numbers may indicate that the Sun has contributed to the unusual climate change during the twentieth century, we point out that solar variability is unlikely to have been the dominant cause of the strong warming during the past three decades.»

Our results point to the need for future observational and modeling studies to focus on the regional and seasonal characteristics of Antarctic climate change, the regional response to ozone depletion, the influence of tropical variability and climate change on Antarctic climate, and on the mechanisms that link sea ice and air temperature in Antarctica.

Another external influence on Earth's climate is the variability in the amount of energy the Sun emits.