On multi-decadal
timeframes, GH gas forcing and the PDO / AMO combination have been having fairly even in their relative forcing
over the past century, but the GH gas forcing is growing so large that it now dominating these
longer - term natural variations... so the kicker is that the rapidly increasing GH gases, now at their highest levels in millions of years, are very likely
influencing the nature of ENSO, PDO, AMO, and other formerly «natural» cycles.
Thus the IPCC multi-model average of simulations do not reflect these short - term temperature
influences, which is not a problem for
long - term predictions, because positive and negative short - term cycles and noise average out to zero
over long timeframes.