Moreover, the net TOA energy flux is profoundly
influenced by volcanic eruptions (not new) and almost simultaneously, but with some blurring, so too is OHC.
The Mediterranean vegetation has consequently been
influenced by the volcanic eruptions, climate and lava to create a unique environment.
By comparing volcanic activity to records of social unrest, the researchers found a correlation between the two that was too closely matched to dismiss: «In years
influenced by volcanic eruptions, Nile flooding was generally diminished, leading to social stress that could trigger unrest and have other political and economic consequences,» Manning said.
In years
influenced by volcanic eruptions, Nile flooding was generally diminished, leading to social stress that could trigger unrest and have other political and economic consequences,» says Joseph Manning, lead author on the paper and the William K. & Marilyn Milton Simpson Professor of History and Classics at Yale.
You picked a time period (1980 - 1987) where the beginning was
influenced by the volcanic eruption of El Chichon in 1981.
Not exact matches
It is also well known that
volcanic activity has a cooling
influence, and as is well documented
by the effects of the 1991 Mount Pinatubo
volcanic eruption.
The short - term variations are dominated
by ENSO but also can be
influenced by large tropical
volcanic eruptions (such as occurred in 1963, 1982 and, markedly, 1991), so the years after those
eruptions are anomalously cool.
But, as Todd in # 23 points out, 1984 could have been affected
by the El Chichon
eruption which means that the early part of the 1984 - 2008 period was affected
by 2
volcanic eruptions which must
influence the trend.
by removing the
influence of exogenous factors like el Nino,
volcanic eruptions, and solar variation (or at least, approximations of their
influence) we can reduce the noise level in temperature time series (and reduce the level of autocorrelation in the process).
Then you actually need to be able to say something about how climate change will
influence El Nino, and
by studying the past relationship between El Nino and natural factors like
volcanic eruptions we could potentially better inform our understanding of how the El Nino phenomenon will respond to climate change.
But who's to say that if we had enough data and understanding, these spikes and dips could not be thoroughly explained
by solar
influences,
volcanic eruptions, greenhouse gas changes, ice sheet dynamics, etc..?
I excluded years which were strongly
influenced by the El Chichón (1983 — 1985) and Mount Pinatubo (1992 — 1994)
volcanic eruptions (because large
eruptions release particulates into the atmosphere which cause a strong short - term cooling), and looked at the temperature trends in each of the three categories (Figure 1).
92) If one factors in non-greenhouse
influences such as El Nino events and large
volcanic eruptions, lower atmosphere satellite - based temperature measurements show little, if any, global warming since 1979, a period over which atmospheric CO2 has increased
by 55 ppm (17 per cent).
Volcanic eruptions (indicated in red
by the stratospheric optical depth) impose a short term cooling
influence of several years.
The short - term variations are dominated
by ENSO but also can be
influenced by large tropical
volcanic eruptions (such as occurred in 1963, 1982 and, markedly, 1991), so the years after those
eruptions are anomalously cool.
Forster et al. (2007) described four mechanisms
by which
volcanic forcing
influences climate: RF due to aerosol — radiation interaction; differential (vertical or horizontal) heating, producing gradients and changes in circulation; interactions with other modes of circulation, such as El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO); and ozone depletion with its effects on stratospheric heating, which depends on anthropogenic chlorine (stratospheric ozone would increase with a
volcanic eruption under low - chlorine conditions).