Sentences with phrase «initial ice conditions»

NRL - atm - ocn - ice, 4.8 (4.4 - 5.3), Modeling (fully coupled)(Same as June) The projected Arctic minimum sea ice extent from the Navy's global coupled atmosphere - ocean - ice modeling system based on May 2016 initial ice conditions is 4.8 km2.

From further ensemble runs with differing initial conditions we conclude that the initial ice conditions in March can be responsible for a difference of 1 - 2 million km2 in the monthly mean September sea ice extent.

Not exact matches

Further the strength of the feedbacks depend on the initial conditions (like ice age — interglacial).

I STILL don't understand the reactions — on one hand the models are «predicting» triple the current ice (since ice has a short memory, initial conditions should only have a weak influence), yet on the other hand people seem to be predicting another record or near record low while at the same time not objecting about the «super-flawed» models.

The eventual demise of the summer sea ice is a common feature of nearly every climate model projection (the exceptions are models with very inappropriate initial conditions).

This is quite subtle though — weather forecast models obviously do better if they have initial conditions that are closer to the observations, and one might argue that for particular climate model predictions that are strongly dependent on the base climatology (such as for Arctic sea ice) tuning to the climatology will be worthwhile.

Wu et al., 4.8 + / -0.2, Modeling The one we submit here is based on the correction of ice thickness initial condition due to too thick ice in the real time CFSv2 initial condition.

Based on last year's estimate, the initial condition change (thinning the ice pack by 60 cm) did appear to have improved the model's behavior and skill.

In our 2010 SIO estimate, it was found that the CFSv2 sea ice extent seemed too excessive (due to too thick ice in the initial condition), and the extent confined within 60 cm of ice thickness matches the real time observation.

The initial conditions were modified from real time CFSv2 initial conditions by thinning the ice pack, similar to what we did in making our 2011 and 2012 sea ice outlook (SIO) estimate.

If this thinning would have eliminated ice from areas observed to have sea ice, a minimum thickness of 20 cm was left in place for the ice initial condition.

While sea ice loss in 2012 had some atmospheric conditions supporting loss at the beginning of summer, the loss in 2012 probably was the result of thin sea ice initial conditions.

These were modified from the CFS v2.0 initial conditions by thinning the ice pack by 60 cm — the thickness which we used as a cutoff in making our 2010 SIO estimates.

Regarding initial conditions for Spring 2010, Figure 2 by Maslanik and others shows maps of sea ice classes derived from sea ice age for April 2010 and 2009.

It is not clear whether the bias is caused by an imperfect sea ice - ocean model or by imperfect initial or boundary conditions.

This is substantially lower than the earlier estimates, reflecting both lower than average sea ice extent used as initial conditions this summer and a persistent downward trend in sea ice extent over the past decade (and longer).

Our reconstruction thus supports the notion of relatively warm hemispheric conditions earlier in themillennium, while cooling following the 14th century could be viewed as the initial onset of the Little Ice Age sensu lato.

The ensemble consists of seven members each of which uses a unique set of NCEP / NCAR atmospheric forcing fields from recent years, representing recent climate, such that ensemble member 1 uses 2005 NCEP / NCAR forcing, member 2 uses 2006 forcing..., and member 7 uses 2011 forcing... In addition, the recently available IceBridge and helicopter - based electromagnetic (HEM) ice thickness quicklook data are assimilated into the initial 12 - category sea ice thickness distribution fields in order to improve the initial conditions for the predictions.

Our reconstruction thus supports the notion of relatively warm hemispheric conditions earlier in the millennium, while cooling following the 14th century could be viewed as the initial onset of the Little Ice Age sensu lato.

Model forecast skill and sensitivity to initial conditions in the seasonal Sea Ice Outlook.

Because of the importance of initial conditions for the sea ice state, more work is needed on remote sensing retrieval and interpretation of spring and summer ice concentrations and ice conditions, even if the present operational algorithms are not changed.

In addition, a combination of thinner sea ice initial conditions [Kwok and Rothrock 2009] and high surface temperature would significantly reduce arctic sea ice coverage.

In years such as 2008, initial sea ice conditions at the end of spring may have more of an influence on a September arctic sea ice extent Outlook than a forecast of summer wind fields, which dominated the ice situation in 2007.

Initial conditions support a lower ice year than 2007.

As noted last month, this range depends in part on the relative weight that the respondents give to «initial conditions,» e.g., age and thickness of sea ice at the end of spring, versus whether summer winds in 2008 will be as supportive for ice loss as the favorable winds were in 2007.

A key question to be addressed was: How important were initial conditions of the sea ice at the end of spring versus anomalous summer meteorological forcing in driving the second sequential major September sea ice minimum?

Many respondents point to initial conditions for 2008: less multiyear sea ice in March 2008 compared to 2007, a potentially faster rate of melting in summer in 2008.

Because of the importance of initial conditions for the sea ice state, more work is needed on remote sensing retrieval and interpretation of spring and summer ice concentrations and ice condition, even if the present operational algorithms are not changed.

One member's 2008 outlook (Kalaeschke) went from less sea ice to more sea ice compared to 2007; this was based on applying a different method with a stronger weighting for initial conditions.

To obtain the «best possible» initial ice - ocean conditions for the forecasts, we conducted a retrospective simulation using PIOMAS that assimilates satellite ice concentration and sea surface temperature data.

Each ensemble prediction starts with the same initial ice — ocean conditions on 7/1/2013.

Our projected Arctic sea ice extent from the NCEP CFSv2 model with June 2013 revised - initial condition using 30 - member ensemble forecast is (surprisingly increased to) 4.7 million square kilometers with a standard deviation of 0.4 million square kilometers.

The first set of simulations, referred to as Global Atmosphere - Global Ocean (GOGA) experiments, are forced with prescribed SST and sea ice concentrations from the observational datasets of Hurrell et al. (2008) for 1979 — 2008, with different initial conditions for each ensemble member.

These contributions are valuable for understanding initial conditions as well as sea ice dynamics throughout the season.

Depending on which one you choose an initial condition might lead to the climate of Europe, Jurrasic Park, or an Ice Age.

Suppose that you mark the initial conditions that lead to different climates by red for Europe, green for Jurrasic Park, and blue for Ice Age and now draw a little circle around some starting points.

Blanchard - Wrigglesworth, E., R. I. Cullather, W. Wang, J. Zhang, and C. M. Bitz, Model forecast skill and sensitivity to initial conditions in the seasonal Sea Ice Outlook, Geophys.