In previous analyses the importance of
the initial ice thickness distribution for the ensemble prediction was shown.
A comparison of the modeled ice thickness on 1 June 2007, 2008, and 2009, and
the initial ice thickness on 28 May 2010 reveals considerably larger ice thickness mainly in the East Siberian Sea, north of the East Siberian Sea, and in the vicinity of the North Pole in 2010 compared to 2007 — 2009.
Not exact matches
Initial interpretations of data from Cassini flybys of Enceladus estimated that the
thickness of its
ice shell ranged from 30 to 40 km at the south pole to 60 km at the equator.
Wu et al., 4.8 + / -0.2, Modeling The one we submit here is based on the correction of
ice thickness initial condition due to too thick
ice in the real time CFSv2
initial condition.
In our 2010 SIO estimate, it was found that the CFSv2 sea
ice extent seemed too excessive (due to too thick
ice in the
initial condition), and the extent confined within 60 cm of
ice thickness matches the real time observation.
If this thinning would have eliminated
ice from areas observed to have sea
ice, a minimum
thickness of 20 cm was left in place for the
ice initial condition.
These were modified from the CFS v2.0
initial conditions by thinning the
ice pack by 60 cm — the
thickness which we used as a cutoff in making our 2010 SIO estimates.
The ensemble consists of seven members each of which uses a unique set of NCEP / NCAR atmospheric forcing fields from recent years, representing recent climate, such that ensemble member 1 uses 2005 NCEP / NCAR forcing, member 2 uses 2006 forcing..., and member 7 uses 2011 forcing... In addition, the recently available IceBridge and helicopter - based electromagnetic (HEM)
ice thickness quicklook data are assimilated into the
initial 12 - category sea
ice thickness distribution fields in order to improve the
initial conditions for the predictions.
As noted last month, this range depends in part on the relative weight that the respondents give to «
initial conditions,» e.g., age and
thickness of sea
ice at the end of spring, versus whether summer winds in 2008 will be as supportive for
ice loss as the favorable winds were in 2007.
Collow, T.W., W. Wang, A. Kumar, and J. Zhang, Improving Arctic sea
ice prediction using PIOMAS
initial sea
ice thickness in a coupled ocean - atmosphere model, Mon..