Sentences with phrase «initiallised decadal predictions»

Changes in the oceans occur more slowly than in the atmosphere, and this long - term memory of the ocean is a major key to seasonal and decadal predictions.

The new research used the Met Office Hadley Centre's Decadal Prediction System and found that the model was good at predicting summer Sahel rainfall over the forthcoming five years.

It's quite clear that if we could run our models at a higher resolution we could do a much better job — tomorrow — in terms of our seasonal and decadal predictions.

«International Conferences on Subseasonal to Decadal Prediction» are to be held 17 - 21 Sep 2018 at NCAR, Boulder, USA.

A number of recent studies linking changes in the North Atlantic ocean circulation to sea ice extent led Yeager to think that it would also be possible to make decadal predictions for Arctic winter sea ice cover using the NCAR - based Community Earth System Model...

This is not particularly surprising, since it is expected that the importance of the new simulations will be seen in the differences between model types (i.e. including carbon cycles, atmospheric chemistry etc.), or in new kinds of diagnostics from say, the initialized decadal predictions, that weren't available before.

Claims then that this kind of decadal prediction is useful for policy - makers or scientists thus remain very premature.

The techniques for decadal prediction have advanced somewhat since these earliest attempts (as described in Meehl et al., 2014), but no skilful initialized predictions have yet been verified.

IMHO, the reason this made huge news at least in Europe (where I am now) is because it is mostly in Europe that the large weather prediction centers are pushing this idea of «decadal predictions».

«When it comes to decadal predictions that explain anything more than a tiny fraction of the variability in anything more than a tiny fraction of the land area, I have yet to be shown any result that says that this is possible, even theoretically...»

«When it comes to decadal predictions that explain anything more than a tiny fraction of the variability in anything more than a tiny fraction of the land area, I have yet to be shown any result that says that this is possible, even theoretically,» Dr. Schmidt said.

The decadal prediction involves both natural decadal variability and anthropogenic forcing.

Karspeck, A., S. Yeager, G. Danabasoglu, and H. Teng, 2014: An evaluation of experimental decadal predictions using CCSM4.

The second study addresses this issue by using a suite of decadal prediction experiments performed with a climate model capable of simulating multi-year La Niña events.

To this end, a new paper authored by a team led by Leon Hermanson has just appeared on - line in the journal Geophysical Research Letters that describes a decadal forecasting model developed by the U.K. Met Office and called, rather unimaginatively, the Decadal Prediction System (DePreSys).

«Accurate seasonal and decadal predictions of tropical cyclone activity are essential for the development of mitigation strategies for the 2.7 billion residents living within cyclone prone regions.

Smith et al is the first decadal prediction.

Professor Adam Scaife, the head of monthly to decadal prediction at the Met Office Hadley Centre, said: «The end of the recent slowdown in global warming is due to a flip in Pacific sea - surface temperatures.

One obviously important purpose is global and local decadal predictions.

...» (Ref: Contribution from Working Group I to the fifth assessment report by IPCC; 11.2.3 Prediction Quality; 11.2.3.1 Decadal Prediction Experiments)

Component A comprises the production and analysis of an extensive archive of retrospective forecasts to be used to assess and understand historical decadal prediction skill, as a basis for improvements in all aspects of end - toend decadal prediction, and as a basis for forecasting on annual to decadal timescales.

During 2015 our decadal prediction system was upgraded to use the latest high resolution version of our coupled climate model, consistent with our seasonal forecasts.

Julia Slingo makes it clear that the BBC report confused the public with their headline because it conflated a decadal prediction with climate change.

«It is essential to take on the challenge of decadal prediction.

Judith, the gif animation of the UKMO's 2011 and 2012 predictions is also telling, because they've also shortened the decadal prediction to 5 years: From my post here: http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2013/01/06/ukmo-lowers-5-year-global-temperature-forecast-and-omits-the-second-5-years-of-the-decadal-forecast/

It builds on recent improvements in models, in the reanalysis of climate data, in methods of initialization and ensemble generation, and in data treatment and analysis to propose an extended comprehensive decadal prediction investigation as a contribution to CMIP6 (Eyring et al., 2016) and to the WCRP Grand Challenge on Near Term Climate Prediction (Kushnir et al., 2016).

You should be careful when throwing around decade - old decadal predictions to note the start date.

Comparing to models with initialized states, ie attempts at decadal prediction, would be more interesting.

Members of the working group have published a paper in Climate Dynamics entitled «A verification framework for interannual - to - decadal prediction experiments.»

The key is accurately representing the large - scale ocean circulation and associated heat transport in the climate models used to make the decadal predictions.

Ensemble decadal prediction simulations using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) can skillfully predict past decadal rates of Atlantic winter sea ice change because they do well at predicting THC - driven ocean heat content change in the vicinity of the winter sea ice edge in the Labrador, Greenland, Irminger, and Barents Seas.

The US CLIVAR PPAI Panel seeks new panelists with expertise in one or more of the following areas: (a) predictability of weather / climate extremes, (b) multi-model ensembles, (c) decadal prediction; (d) application, impact, and mitigation strategies for marine ecosystems or (e) agricultural products; or (f) interactions with stakeholders and / or stakeholder boundary organizations.

Mosh says «In current day practice you CAN initialize to a known state, so that is one approach for decadal prediction.»

One more thing re Mosh's observation «In current day practice you CAN initialize to a known state, so that is one approach for decadal prediction.»

In current day practice you CAN initialize to a known state, so that is one approach for decadal prediction.

We don't think the science is that clear cut — most of that dealing with decadal prediction suggesting a cooling influence from natural variation over a decade or three.

Our results demonstrate that skillful decadal predictions of soil water storage, carbon stock, and fire frequency are feasible with proper initialization of soil conditions.

Interannual - to - decadal prediction systems — currently under - development — suggest that slow ocean variations, such as the AMOC, may be predictable.

The term «decadal prediction» encompasses predictions on annual, multi-annual to decadal timescales.

«The end of the recent slowdown in global warming is due to a flip in Pacific sea - surface temperatures,» says Adam Scaife, who heads monthly - to - decadal prediction for the Met Office.

The authors commented «This implies that the current [climate] models are ill - suited to localised decadal predictions, even though they are used as inputs for policy making.»»

Sensitivity of decadal predictions to the initial atmospheric and oceanic perturbations.

The decadal prediction experiments are designed to assess the predictability of climate (natural and forced) changes on time scales up to 10 years.

Ar5, however, will be better since they will do decadal predictions for sequence of decades.

It's not the first paper to suggest that the initialisaiton of natural internal cycles of variability is important in decadal forecasting, nor the first to make a decadal prediction.

In the longer term — statistical correlation of SST and rainfall are probably the way to go for seasonal to decadal predictions.

The decadal predictions system, Met Office decadal prediction system: DePreSys, achieves this by starting predictions from observed atmospheric and oceanic conditions, and including projected emissions of greenhouse gases and variations in natural climate forcings (volcanic and solar activity).

The multidecadal variability is also important for decadal predictions.

Hurricane Sandy - Extreme Events and Global Cooling 11/18/12 Global Cooling Climate and Weather Forecasting 1/22/13 Global Cooling Timing and Amount 2/18/13 Its the Sun Stupid — the Minor Significance of CO2 4/2/13 Global Cooling Methods and Testable Decadal Predictions.

Retrospective decadal predictions with DePreSys show improvements over uninitialised forecasts, including global average temperature and Atlantic hurricane frequency.