Between 2002 and 2010, the likelihood that a typical
insider voted center - left declined by 11.3 percentage points; the likelihood that such a voter supported the center - right increased by 13.2 percentage points.
According to our analysis of the 2002 election, a typical member of the labour force was only 4.7 percentage points more likely to
vote for a
center - right party if he was an
insider than if he was an outsider (and this difference was not statistically signifi - cant).