* it confirms that the instrumental temperature record shows an upward trend (with various reverses and advances) from the start of the CET instrumental record in 1659 making the 1880 start point for
the instrumental global record used by GISS appear to be merely a staging post in the upwards trend, rather than the starting post.
Not exact matches
The increase in the early 20th century is well known from the
instrumental record of
global and hemispheric mean temperatures (which extends back into the mid 19th century).
Testing models against the existing
instrumental record suggested CO2 must cause
global warming, because the models could not simulate what had already happened unless the extra CO2 was added to the model.
There is more to obervations than the
global warming in the
instrumental record.
The concatenation of modern and
instrumental records [52] is based on an estimate that
global temperature in the first decade of the 21st century (+0.8 °C relative to 1880 — 1920) exceeded the Holocene mean by 0.25 ± 0.25 °C.
She also was
instrumental to the success of the June 2013 auction ($ 19,600,000), with a
global record for an artwork by the artist Kazuo Shiraga, Chiretsusei Katsusemba ($ 1,650,000).
b) There is some other mechanism of producing
global warming that has been active in the past, but occurs by a mechanism that is not included in current models, and which doesn't have anything to do with CO2, and this, rather than CO2, is responsible for the warming seen in the
instrumental record (and whatever that mechanism is, it is temporary and will go away by itself Real Soon Now).
The increase in the early 20th century is well known from the
instrumental record of
global and hemispheric mean temperatures (which extends back into the mid 19th century).
Instead, there is Eleven of the last twelve years (1995 — 2006) rank among the 12 warmest years in the
instrumental record of
global surface temperature (since 1850), indicating a move towards a (correct) realisation that the relative warmth of individual years are harder to assess.
By integrating a
global database of terrestrial heat flux measurements with another database of temperature versus depth within boreholes and with the twentieth - century
instrumental record of surface temperature, Huang et al. reconstruct the surface temperature history over the past 20,000 years.
So, couldn't you take the
instrumental record for
global mean temperature, subdivide it into chunks (say 10 or 20 years at a time), then analyze each chunk separately using a fourier transform?
We discussed this issue in our paper: The
global instrumental record since 1850 contains only 2 and half cycles of this 65 - year cycle.
A
global - scale
instrumental temperature
record that has not been contaminated by (a) artificial urban heat (asphalt, machines, industrial waste heat, etc.), (b) ocean - air affected biases (detailed herein), or (c) artificial adjustments to past data that uniformly serve to cool the past and warm the present... is now available.
Over this period the recent
instrumental records, mainly based on direct thermometer readings, has approximately
global coverage.
Prior to that, when
global cooling was the concern, there was no divergence between the
instrumental record and proxy evidence.
The annual
global mean temperature for every year since the TAR has been among the 10 warmest years since the beginning of the
instrumental record.
The
instrumental record before then is hideously insufficient in spatial coverage of the planet to establish a
global average temperature.
I have written some three articles on the general unreliability of
instrumental records and reiterate that I do NOT believe it is possible to accurately parse a local temperature to fractions of a degree, let alone a
global one.
In fact if that doesn't hold true prior to the satellite era then you can kiss the
instrumental record prior to 1950 goodbye because its coverage isn't anywhere near
global and is almost completely absent for undeveloped countries, remote regions, and over the ocean.
However, Muller doesn't make this error - he clearly understands that
global temperatures have been rising in recent decades as indicated by the
instrumental record.
Figure 2 provides a comparison of them all, starting in AD 500 (the earliest date in Mann 2008's
global reconstruction), with the northern hemisphere
instrumental record shown for comparison.
I've taken the three Northern Hemisphere reconstructions (Mann, Moberg, and Ljungqvist) plus Loehle's «
global» reconstruction, and carefully matched each one to the same
instrumental temperature
record (CRUTEM Northern Hemisphere land temperatures).
There are more degrees of freedom in publication bias alone than the 30 - year averaged
global temperature over the
instrumental record.
2011 was only the ninth warmest year in the GISS analysis of
global temperature change, yet nine of the ten warmest years in the
instrumental record (since 1880) have occurred in the 21st century.
If this is accepted as a reasonable looking proxy for ocean heat content which matches the
instrumental OHC
record pretty well, then no «lag» is needed to explain the solar effect on OHC and thus
global surface temperature.
The point being made is that, without regard for the accuracy or precision of the
instrumental record, you can still replicate the 20th - century
global warming signal using only a subset of the data.
As you still seem to be under the impression that CET was the only
instrumental record people like Lamb had to work with, you might be interested in this first attempt in the 1780's to create a
global record.
Just showing the differences of the historical
record w / and w / o merging of «
instrumental record» and the balloon and satellite
record (as you have previously done, really puts the whole
Global Warming issue in perspective, especially if you maintain the anomaly (suppressed) scaling the same.
He rewrote Wikipedia's articles on
global warming, on the greenhouse effect, on the
instrumental temperature
record, on the urban heat island, on climate models, on
global cooling.
Although the regions largely coincide with the continents rather than climatological criteria, the annual mean temperature averaged over these regions explains 90 % of the
global mean annual temperature variability in the
instrumental record»
Your obsession with making
global warming conform to a linear trend is noted, even if the
instrumental record is better described by alternating warming and cooling stages with a general upward trend.
Testing models against the existing
instrumental record suggested CO2 must cause
global warming, because the models could not simulate what had already happened unless the extra CO2 was added to the model.
The near - linear rate of anthropogenic warming (predominantly from anthropogenic greenhouse gases) is shown in sources such as: «Deducing Multidecadal Anthropogenic
Global Warming Trends Using Multiple Regression Analysis» «The global warming hiatus — a natural product of interactions of a secular warming trend and a multi-decadal oscillation» «The Origin and Limits of the Near Proportionality between Climate Warming and Cumulative CO2 Emissions» «Sensitivity of climate to cumulative carbon emissions due to compensation of ocean heat and carbon uptake» «Return periods of global climate fluctuations and the pause» «Using data to attribute episodes of warming and cooling in instrumental records» «The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions» «The sensitivity of the proportionality between temperature change and cumulative CO2 emissions to ocean mixing&
Global Warming Trends Using Multiple Regression Analysis» «The
global warming hiatus — a natural product of interactions of a secular warming trend and a multi-decadal oscillation» «The Origin and Limits of the Near Proportionality between Climate Warming and Cumulative CO2 Emissions» «Sensitivity of climate to cumulative carbon emissions due to compensation of ocean heat and carbon uptake» «Return periods of global climate fluctuations and the pause» «Using data to attribute episodes of warming and cooling in instrumental records» «The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions» «The sensitivity of the proportionality between temperature change and cumulative CO2 emissions to ocean mixing&
global warming hiatus — a natural product of interactions of a secular warming trend and a multi-decadal oscillation» «The Origin and Limits of the Near Proportionality between Climate Warming and Cumulative CO2 Emissions» «Sensitivity of climate to cumulative carbon emissions due to compensation of ocean heat and carbon uptake» «Return periods of
global climate fluctuations and the pause» «Using data to attribute episodes of warming and cooling in instrumental records» «The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions» «The sensitivity of the proportionality between temperature change and cumulative CO2 emissions to ocean mixing&
global climate fluctuations and the pause» «Using data to attribute episodes of warming and cooling in
instrumental records» «The proportionality of
global warming to cumulative carbon emissions» «The sensitivity of the proportionality between temperature change and cumulative CO2 emissions to ocean mixing&
global warming to cumulative carbon emissions» «The sensitivity of the proportionality between temperature change and cumulative CO2 emissions to ocean mixing»
It's not confusing: they're saying that greenhouse - gas - induced, anthropogenic
global warming goes back to before the
instrumental records began.
Let's be clear: the actual NOAA empirical evidence, from the
global temperature climate
instrumental records, does not support the hypothesis that long - term changes in atmospheric CO2 levels produce rapid accelerating, dangerous
global temperature changes.
Publicly, of course, the Climategate conspirators had been saying that the last ten years were the warmest decade on the
instrumental record — true, but not surprising given that there has been 300 years of
global warming.
This time period is too short to signify a change in the warming trend, as climate trends are measured over periods of decades, not years.12, 29,30,31,32 Such decade - long slowdowns or even reversals in trend have occurred before in the
global instrumental record (for example, 1900 - 1910 and 1940 - 1950; see Figure 2.2), including three decade - long periods since 1970, each followed by a sharp temperature rise.33 Nonetheless, satellite and ocean observations indicate that the Earth - atmosphere climate system has continued to gain heat energy.34
Jones, P.D. and Bradley, R.S., 1992:
Global - scale temperature changes during the period of
instrumental records.
There are now a greater number of climate simulations from AOGCMs for the period of the
global surface
instrumental record than were available for the TAR, including a greater variety of forcings in a greater variety of combinations.
The concatenation of modern and
instrumental records [52] is based on an estimate that
global temperature in the first decade of the 21st century (+0.8 °C relative to 1880 — 1920) exceeded the Holocene mean by 0.25 ± 0.25 °C.
Using data to attribute episodes of warming and cooling in
instrumental records, Ka - Kit Tung1 and Jiansong Zhou, 12/2012; ``... anthropogenic
global warming trends might have been overestimated by a factor of two in the second half of the 20th century.»
Hence skeptics are extremely adamant there was a very cold and
global little ice age, but from the other side of their mouth they will rubbish all lines of evidence like tree ring reconstructions and the
instrumental record that are needed to make such an adamant claim about the little ice age.
Long - Term
Instrumental and Reconstructed Temperature
Records Contradict Anthropogenic
Global Warming Horst - Joachim Ludecke
It notes that despite the cooling effect of La Niña, most evident in the near - surface waters of the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, 1999 was still one of the warmest years in the
global historical
instrumental record.
Were I you, if I had good cause to believe the
instrumental record to be wholly unreliable, I'd adopt the agnostic position of not knowing what
global trends were doing.
My idea is to take a simple sinusoidal model of a beat wave composed of 9 and 20 year cycles (the two main frequencies in the
instrumental record of
global temperature) and subject them to disturbances with a random variable having a standard deviation comparable to the standard deviation of monthly changes in the rate of change in
global temperature.
Unless your eyes have
global daily coverage I'd go with the
instrumental record.
That CET appears to be a good — but not perfect - proxy of
global temperatures can be seen in the paleo and
instrumental record.
* As paleoclimate reconstructions are measured against
global instrumental temperature
records commencing 1880 they do not find any» hockey stick» effects seen in older temperature
records
These graphics compare the 2014 temperature anomaly (black line) to the historical
instrumental global temperature
record.