Not exact matches
Each December, six months before the start of hurricane season, the now 75 - year - old Gray and his team issue a long - range prediction of the
number of major tropical
storms that will arise in the Atlantic Ocean basin, as well as the
number of hurricanes (with sustained winds of 74 miles per hour or more) and
intense hurricanes (with winds of at least 111 mph).
Haiyan fed off that, and there have been a greater
number of
intense storms recently as well.
Model studies have shown that higher temperatures do result in the most
intense storms being more severe but conclusions have been mixed on
storm number.
While theoretical and model experiments show warmer seas drive more
intense storms in the future, the total
number isn't expected to increase.
However, Emanuel (2005a) and Webster et al. (2005, 2006) indicated that the typhoons have become more
intense in this region, with almost a doubling of PDI values since the 1950s and an increase of about 30 % in the
number of category 4 and 5
storms from 1990 to 2004 compared with 1975 to 1989.
A
number of modelling studies have also projected a general tendency for more
intense but fewer
storms outside the tropics, with a tendency towards more extreme wind events and higher ocean waves in several regions in association with those deepened cyclones.
Named
Storms = Tropical
Storms, Hurricanes and Subtropical
Storms Hurricanes = Saffir - Simpson Hurricane Scale 1 to 5 Major Hurricanes = Saffir - Simpson Hurricane Scale 3, 4, or 5 «ACE» = Accumulated Cyclone Energy - An index that combines the
numbers of systems, how long they existed and how
intense they became.
As noted above, there is some indication from high resolution models of substantial increases in the
numbers of the most
intense hurricanes even if the overall
number of tropical
storms or hurricanes decreases.
Hurricanes in some areas, including the North Atlantic, are likely to become more
intense as a result of global warming even though the
number of such
storms worldwide may decline, according to a new study by MIT researchers.
Key findings from these experiments include: fewer tropical cyclones globally in a warmer late - twenty - first - century climate (Figure 8), but also an increase in average cyclone intensity, the
number and occurrence days of very
intense category 4 and 5
storms in most basins (Figure 9) and in tropical cyclone precipitation rates (Figure 10).
The Summit invited guests to attend a
number of hands - on events, including the «brain factory» where participants were placed in multi-disciplinary teams over the weekend for an
intense brain -
storming / devise / reflect - a-thon with mentors and designers onsite.