The ACE index is used to calculate
the intensity of the hurricane season and is a function of the wind speed and duration of each tropical cyclone.
As NOAA explains «The ACE index is used to calculate
the intensity of the hurricane season and is a function of the wind speed and duration of each tropical cyclone.»
Not exact matches
The 2017
hurricane season has highlighted the critical need to communicate a storm's impact path and
intensity accurately, but new research from the University
of Utah shows significant misunderstandings
of the two most commonly used storm forecast visualization methods.
Wafting over the Atlantic, it may have lessened the
intensity of the 2006
hurricane season.
There were two short - lived Category 1
hurricanes this year, making it the first Atlantic
season since 1968 when no storm made it beyond the first level
of intensity, according to the National
Hurricane Center.
Furiously destructive Hurricanes are not the only indicator
of AGW, in context
of those Hurricanes cycles in the past, or rather in contrast with past high
intensity hurricane seasons, we now experience all time high temperatures raging everywhere in the world, 1 meter a day rainfalls, severe droughts on 4 distinct continents, many glaciers going or gone everywhere, and a good chunk
of the Arctic Ocean permanent ice melted.
It isn't possible today (12/28/2006) to confidently predict the date,
intensity and track for the first
hurricane of 2007 (weather), but forecasts can be made for the 2007
hurricane season (climate).
Further, they make no claim to be able to detect the number
of hurricanes in a
season, or the
intensity of a
hurricane.
Recently our news feeds were packed with the unprecedented
intensity of North America's Atlantic
hurricane season.
NOAA's Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index (Levinson and Waple, 2004) approximates the collective
intensity and duration
of tropical storms and
hurricanes during a given
season and is proportional to maximum surface sustained winds squared.
Yes, most
of the increase 1970 - 2004 has been category 4 storms, but
of course 2005 set the record for the number
of category 5 storms, and records on
hurricane intensity and duration are being set in the pacific this
season.
The models heavily relied upon by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) had not projected this multidecadal stasis in «global warming»; nor (until trained ex post facto) the fall in TS from 1940 - 1975; nor 50 years» cooling in Antarctica (Doran et al., 2002) and the Arctic (Soon, 2005); nor the absence
of ocean warming since 2003 (Lyman et al., 2006; Gouretski & Koltermann, 2007); nor the onset, duration, or
intensity of the Madden - Julian intraseasonal oscillation, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in the tropical stratosphere, El Nino / La Nina oscillations, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation that has recently transited from its warming to its cooling phase (oceanic oscillations which, on their own, may account for all
of the observed warmings and coolings over the past half - century: Tsoniset al., 2007); nor the magnitude nor duration
of multi-century events such as the Mediaeval Warm Period or the Little Ice Age; nor the cessation since 2000
of the previously - observed growth in atmospheric methane concentration (IPCC, 2007); nor the active 2004
hurricane season; nor the inactive subsequent
seasons; nor the UK flooding
of 2007 (the Met Office had forecast a summer
of prolonged droughts only six weeks previously); nor the solar Grand Maximum
of the past 70 years, during which the Sun was more active, for longer, than at almost any similar period in the past 11,400 years (Hathaway, 2004; Solankiet al., 2005); nor the consequent surface «global warming» on Mars, Jupiter, Neptune's largest moon, and even distant Pluto; nor the eerily - continuing 2006 solar minimum; nor the consequent, precipitate decline
of ~ 0.8 °C in TS from January 2007 to May 2008 that has canceled out almost all
of the observed warming
of the 20th century.
Hurricane intensity forecasts have lagged behind, but this
season, forecasters plan to take advantage
of faster, more up - to - date computer models to try to make
intensity forecasts more reliable.
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