While El Niño has brought coral - killing hot water to the Galápagos on a periodic basis for millennia, new research suggests that the frequency and
intensity of warm ocean conditions may be increasing (Hughes et al. 2018).
Not exact matches
They identified wind patterns that mixed the
warmer surface and colder deep waters to cool the
ocean's surface and reduce the
intensity of the storm.
MHW
intensity between 1982 — 1998 and 2000 — 2016 increased in over 65 %
of the global
ocean, most notably in all five western boundary current regions, where the mean
warming has been considerably faster than the global average39, and most mid-latitude
ocean basins (Fig. 1e).
He later continued: «Now that
ocean temperatures are considerably
warmer than they were a few decades ago, the maximum potential
intensity a hurricane can reach is higher, and we should expect to see a few Patricias sprinkled among the inevitable phalanxes
of major hurricanes that will assault our shores in the coming decades.»
It gained
intensity right as it hit land, due to very
warm oceans, due to a la nina generated anticyclone
warming the
ocean, combined with the effects
of climate change on
ocean temperatures.
The current Landsea / Trenberth / Emanuel discussion has been parsed by many to mean that Landsea claims that the number
of hurricanes is constant, and Trenberth is claiming that their
intensity should increase as global
warming heats the
ocean surface.
but as the
oceans are
warming, there is less relative difference between the
warm and cool, so less frequent release, meaning fewer storms, but
of greater
intensity.?
To the extent that this abrupt cooling event can be identified with
ocean dynamics, regardless
of whether it involves the GSA or an abrupt change in the
intensity of the AMOC, it provides a plausible explanation
of why the NH
warmed less rapidly from around the time
of the end
of WW II to 1980 than the SH.
• El Niño, a natural cycle
of ocean warming, can exacerbate both flooding and drought, along with storm
intensity, wildfires and other factors in the «vicious cycle»
of climate change.
-- Susan Solomon, Nature The Long Thaw is written for anyone who wishes to know what cutting - edge science tells us about the modern issue
of global
warming and its effects on the pathways
of atmospheric chemistry, as well as global and regional temperatures, rainfall, sea level, Arctic sea - ice coverage, melting
of the continental ice sheets, cyclonic storm frequency and
intensity and
ocean acidification.
Warmer waters increase storm
intensity / precipitation and create coral bleaching, thus destroys the world's coral reef's, a
ocean ecosystem «the rainforest
of the
ocean» and contains major food web's.
We can also observe the effects
of global
warming in worldwide glacier retreat, declining Arctic ice sheets, sea level rise,
warming oceans,
ocean acidification, and increased
intensity of weather events.
«The implication is that the
warmer oceans increased the risk
of greater hurricane
intensity and duration,» Trenberth said.
The paradox is that global
warming could also increase the
intensity of not just hotter - than - usual seasons but also cool or cold episodes that would trigger unusual or extreme weather responses far from the
ocean's cool centre.
(07/08/2013)
Warmer ocean temperatures will increase the frequency and
intensity of tropical cyclones, typhoons and hurricanes in «most locations» this century, concludes a new study based on simulations using six global climate models.
Climate change will affect fisheries and aquaculture through gradual
warming,
ocean acidification and through changes in the frequency,
intensity and location
of extreme events.
That is because there are factors, like air and
ocean circulation patterns, that affect both the rate and the
intensity of the global
warming.
When the
intensity of ultraviolet light from the sun increases, temperature rises in this ozone rich air and weakens the downdraft, lowers the surface pressure and with it the strength
of the trade winds that blow across the
ocean to the low pressure zones that form over the
warm waters that accumulate in the west.
So while admitting, there probably is a very modest amount
of AGW in the current
warming cycle, it could just as easily have been caused by: i) the effects
of the huge increase in global irrigation, ii) tiny changes in the sun's radiation, and / or iii) the knock on effects
of changes in the
intensity and direction
of ocean currents.
«The distribution, frequency and
intensity of these events have increased across the globe and this study links this expansion to
ocean warming in some regions
of the North Atlantic and North Pacific
oceans.»
A
warming surface
ocean is also likely to increase the density stratification
of the water column (i.e., Steinacher et al., 2010), altering the circulation and potentially increasing the isolation
of waters in an OMZ from contact with the atmosphere, hence increasing the
intensity of the OMZ.
Furthermore
warm ocean surfaces really do send the air circulation systems poleward whilst changes in the
intensity of the polar high pressure cells work in opposition to those oceanic effects.
Towards the end
of his presentation he added: «Some research suggests global
warming is linked to rising
ocean and sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and the Gulf
of Mexico — which may have an impact on hurricane
intensity.
The current Landsea / Trenberth / Emanuel discussion has been parsed by many to mean that Landsea claims that the number
of hurricanes is constant, and Trenberth is claiming that their
intensity should increase as global
warming heats the
ocean surface and these claims can both be true.
There are no hurricanes born over cold water, therefore, a much
warmer ocean will expand the range,
intensity and frequency
of hurricanes.
The model simulations including this additional feedback still showed a similar percentage increase
of hurricane
intensity under
warm climate conditions as the original model without
ocean coupling.
The models heavily relied upon by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) had not projected this multidecadal stasis in «global
warming»; nor (until trained ex post facto) the fall in TS from 1940 - 1975; nor 50 years» cooling in Antarctica (Doran et al., 2002) and the Arctic (Soon, 2005); nor the absence
of ocean warming since 2003 (Lyman et al., 2006; Gouretski & Koltermann, 2007); nor the onset, duration, or
intensity of the Madden - Julian intraseasonal oscillation, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in the tropical stratosphere, El Nino / La Nina oscillations, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation that has recently transited from its
warming to its cooling phase (oceanic oscillations which, on their own, may account for all
of the observed
warmings and coolings over the past half - century: Tsoniset al., 2007); nor the magnitude nor duration
of multi-century events such as the Mediaeval
Warm Period or the Little Ice Age; nor the cessation since 2000
of the previously - observed growth in atmospheric methane concentration (IPCC, 2007); nor the active 2004 hurricane season; nor the inactive subsequent seasons; nor the UK flooding
of 2007 (the Met Office had forecast a summer
of prolonged droughts only six weeks previously); nor the solar Grand Maximum
of the past 70 years, during which the Sun was more active, for longer, than at almost any similar period in the past 11,400 years (Hathaway, 2004; Solankiet al., 2005); nor the consequent surface «global
warming» on Mars, Jupiter, Neptune's largest moon, and even distant Pluto; nor the eerily - continuing 2006 solar minimum; nor the consequent, precipitate decline
of ~ 0.8 °C in TS from January 2007 to May 2008 that has canceled out almost all
of the observed
warming of the 20th century.
In a follow - up study, which appeared in the Journal
of Climate (2001), NOAA scientists Knutson and Tuleya teamed up with Isaac Ginis and Weixing Shen
of the University
of Rhode Island to explore the climate
warming / hurricane
intensity issue using hurricane model coupled to a full
ocean model.
As the Arctic melts,
oceans rise and temperatures
warm, bringing more moisture into the atmosphere, it's the
intensity of storms that becomes a concern, not only their frequency.
[A] nthropogenic climate change is expected to lead to a greater incidence
of high -
intensity hurricanes, which together with rising sea level, will produce increased risk
of storm surge flooding, while hurricanes are projected to produce substantially more precipitation as the atmosphere and
oceans warm.
The reason for the increase in storm
intensity is that as the planet
warms, the temperatures
of the atmosphere and
of the
ocean surface go up as well, leading to increased evaporation and an increased capacity for the air to hold moisture.