One complicated part of
hurricane intensity predictions involves understanding water vapor, which his current paper aptly shows by comparing his Figure 8b and Figure 10.
However, the latest upgrades to the GFDL hurricane model have led to significant improvements in hurricane intensity forecasts by better representing the atmospheric and oceanic physical processes critical
for intensity prediction.
I know of only one such person who left because of disagreements about
hurrican intensity predictions and this was after the TAR report during preparation of the one not yet released.
«Our work can be directly applied to a hurricane model to help improve
hurricane intensity predictions, which will help people make more informed decisions with regard to their safety,» said David Ortiz - Suslow, a Ph.D. candidate at the UM Rosenstiel School and lead author of the study.
Results suggest that progress in the prediction of TC tracks, particularly in the translation speed of storms, should lead to improved storm intensity prediction
The latest upgrades to the GFDL hurricane model have led to significant improvements in hurricane intensity forecasts by better representing the atmospheric and oceanic physical processes critical
for intensity prediction.
But last year, the team was able to improve the resolution on its hurricane model, which helped improve
the intensity predictions.
By comparison, the US 2014 budget for weather research (things like improved hurricane track /
intensity prediction) was $ 82 million.
But with the state of flux that climate change science seems to be in when it comes to hurricane frequency and
intensity predictions, is there really a solid basis yet for doing this?