Canada's strong economic outlook and conservative
interest rate policy make foreign ownership a growing reality in today's real estate market.
It's just that the Federal Reserve's zero -
interest rate policy makes investors feel forced to accept these dismal prospects.
If quantitative easing and zero -
interest rate policy made anything legitimately «different» about this half - cycle, it was to disrupt that historical reliability, and to encourage investors to continue speculating even after those extreme syndromes emerged.
Not exact matches
Barely - there
interest rates,
made possible by unconventional monetary
policy since the last recession, have driven investors into dividend - paying products, and that has pushed P / Es higher.
The ECB, however, said after its latest
policy -
making meeting Thursday that it still doesn't expect to raise its own
interest rates until «well past» September next year — and even then, only if it is absolutely sure that inflation is back on track after a decade of undershooting.
He said economic progress had
made the bank more confident that higher
interest rates would be required over time, although some monetary
policy accommodation will still be needed.
His remarks can't be considered a roadmap for the future path of
interest rates; he
made a point of stating that every
policy meeting is «live,» meaning the latest data could alter assumptions.
Even though our activities are likely to result in a lower national debt over the long term, I sometimes hear the complaint that the Federal Reserve is enabling bad fiscal
policy by keeping
interest rates very low and thereby
making it cheaper for the federal government to borrow.
The Federal Reserve's ultra-low
interest -
rate policy since the financial crisis may have lent support to a listless economy and
made the government's massive debt a lot easier to finance, but it's been more than hard on retirees and conservative savers.
Nevertheless, when
making interest rate policy in early March, BoC governor Mark Carney overlooked rising pressures on inflation and left the central bank's target for Canada's overnight
rate at 1 %.
Julia Coronado, a former Fed economist and founder of MacroPolicy Perspectives, says Powell's greater familiarity with banking and finance than monetary
policy makes him more likely to follow the consensus, often driven by staff forecasts, on
interest rate policy.
STANLEY FISCHER: So let me just — I thought a little with R - star being so low — I sort of
made — a nuisance of myself by saying, it's not only monetary
policy that affects the
interest rate.
Yet
policy makers
made clear they were reluctant to cut
interest rates.
When the Federal Reserve's
policy -
making Open Market Committee meets next month to decide whether to raise
interest rates, every one of the 10 voting members will be white.
In October, the European Central Bank announced a reduction in its asset purchases, a signal that its quantitative easing
policy was coming to an end, and in November, the Bank of England
made its first
interest rate hike in more than a decade.
The speech
makes clear that the Bank's monetary
policy frameworks centres around a flexible inflation target that aims to deliver an average
rate of inflation of between 2 - 3 per cent over time and in a way that best serves the public
interest.
The helicopter drop is the transfer payment that the BoJ is
making to banks on their existing reserves, which is unnecessary in conventional monetary
policy: it is neither a regulatory requirement nor an
interest rate which affects market
rates.
While there are some signs of recognition such as the Fed's reduction in its estimated neutral
rate from 4.5 percent to 3.0 percent during the last 2 years, the IMF's explicit use of the term secular stagnation in its World Economic Outlook, ECB president Mario Draghi's call for global coordination and greater use of fiscal
policy, and Japan's indicated
interest in fiscal - monetary cooperation, policymakers still have not
made sufficiently radical adjustments in their world view to reflect this new reality of a world where generating adequate nominal GDP growth is likely to be the primary macroeconomic
policy challenge for the next decade.
Reuters reported that the BoJ, as it is colloquially known, is considering
making negative
interest rates a continued centerpiece of monetary
policy, where bond buying has just not been enough to stimulate the economy.
Global growth could be impeded by a central bank
making a
policy mistake, such as raising
interest rates too aggressively with regard to timing or frequency.
For now, Mr. Carney said he is content with his current
policy stance, which is encompassed by the extraordinary pledge he
made in April to leave the benchmark
interest rate near zero until at least June, 2010, conditional on the inflation outlook.
Its aggressive post-crisis monetary
policy to drive down
interest rates made the buying and selling of bonds unprofitable.
The central bank
made a concerted effort starting late last year to divorce its «forward guidance» on
interest rates, what it tells markets about the expected future path of
policy, from specific calendar dates.
It has been over two decades since the popping of Japan's economic bubble and the country is still actively battling with deflationary forces that are so powerful that near - zero
interest rates (zero -
interest rate policy or ZIRP), repeated bouts of quantitative easing (some call it «money printing») and constant Yen - weakening currency interventions have barely
made a dent.
The ECB's monetary
policy in September was a non-event, with the governing council neither
making any changes to the existing
policy nor adding new ones as they voted to leave
interest rates and non-monetary
policies on hold.
A recent fear for high yield investors has been the prospect of normalising
interest rate policy in developed markets — historically low
interest rates have
made the high yield market more sensitive to
interest rate moves and effectively managing this risk will be important.
The Fed's statement following its March meeting suggested to us it was unlikely to be hurried into any further
interest -
rate hikes by a single piece of inflation or employment data crossing a particular threshold and instead would
make a wider judgement on the appropriate setting for monetary
policy, based on a range of readings across the economy and financial markets.
China's leadership and central bank are ready to cut
interest rates again and also loosen lending restrictions, concerned that falling prices could trigger a surge in debt defaults, business failures and job losses, said sources involved in
policy -
making.
Policy makers also are worried that a decade of ultra-low borrowing costs has
made Canadians extra-sensitive to
interest -
rate increases, which could force the central bank to take a slower path back to normal.
Here's what's going on: zero
interest rate policy around the world has
made it really hard for savers (retirees, pension funds, etc.) to earn any income at all.
Tightening
policy will adversely affect employment levels because higher
interest rates make holding on to cash more attractive than investing it.
The global stock markets were cascading lower as the Nikkei and German DAX took out their lows
made the night of the BOJ's surprise move to a three - tiered negative
interest rate policy.
The economic progress we have seen
makes us more confident that higher
interest rates will be warranted over time, although some monetary
policy accommodation will still be needed.»
Yet somehow, despite
policy failures that are
made obvious by the lowest
interest rates ever recorded in human history, a persistent narrative still dominates financial markets: all - knowing, omnipotent central bankers are still in full control of the situation and will do «whatever it takes» to maintain order.
If she had added: «Plus, even though we are currently above the Effective Lower Bound on nominal
interest rates (which is probably below 0 %) we are worried that the margin of safety is getting a bit small, and are pleased that fiscal
policy is
making that margin of safety a bit bigger than it otherwise would be» that would also be an internally consistent thing for the Bank of Canada to say.
His challenge will be
making the transformation to a new
policy regime that gets the Fed out of the business of allocating credit and pegging
interest rates at artificial levels.
Furthermore, the Fed would like to adhere to the so - called «Taylor Rule» (in spite of Professor Taylor's protestations that it is misinterpreting and misusing his concept), a mathematical construct that purports to
make monetary
policy more «scientific» by establishing an arithmetic rule for varying the administered
interest rate according to the variance of «actual from target inflation» (note that «inflation» refers to the change in a price index in this case, not the phenomenon of inflation of the money supply as such), as well as the variance of economic output from «potential output» (i.e, the so - called «output gap» is incorporated in the formula as well).
The Bank of Japan will consider
making negative
interest rates the centrepiece of future monetary easing by shifting its prime
policy target from base money to
interest rates at its review, Reuters reported on Sept. 14, citing sources familiar with its thinking.
A lower neutral
rate also
makes it more likely that
interest rates will be constrained by the effective lower bound, meaning monetary
policy will have less scope to support income growth during periods of economic weakness.
But even now the Board
makes it clear that despite the apparent success of a
policy of low
interest rates, it will not lower them further.
It
makes a permanent underclass a centerpiece of national
policy, to be enforced by the Federal Reserve Board through its control of
interest rates.
The introduction of the new
policy was
made to accommodate the industry's current growth
rate and the number of new companies expressing
interest in the Show.
Stocks are only as high as they are because of ZIRP (zero
interest rate policy) but they are not
making new highs like they used to.
While student loans have advantages over other types of debt, such as lower
interest rates, longer deferment periods and more flexible repayment
policies, they can be tough to pay off while you're
making the transition to the work force, buying a house and building a family.
As retired actuary expert Malcolm Hamilton told me, «We have a crisis with central bank
policies and negative
interest rates, which
makes saving [outside tax shelters] more or less futile.»
With such low
interest rates today, and with savings options like the RESP becoming more popular (RESPs were introduced in 1974, but gained investor
interest he late 90s when the government introduced matching grants) it doesn't
make sense to buy a whole life
policy for savings reasons.
The statement issued by the FOMC, the Fed's
policy making unit, following its meeting on Wednesday sent a clear message that the central bank expects to raise
interest rates at its next sit - down in December.
These are notes that were taken during the Fed's last
interest rate meeting, and the notes offer further insight into the Fed's decision -
making process, and they can give the market clues about future monetary
policy decisions.
For Mexico and other emerging markets uncertainty about trade
policy and higher US
interest rates make the outlook less promising.
With the end of QE1 -2-3, the Fed's
policy making tools will focus on
interest rates, forward guidance or announcements of future
policy and possibly some of the Fed's banking regulations.