In other words, they expect
intermediate term rates will climb in 2015, and yet, the projections merely approximate where 2013 ended.
Not exact matches
Funds can also have different levels of interest
rate sensitivity depending on whether they focus their investments on short,
intermediate, or long -
term bonds.
Long bonds will end up being a very volatile investment at some point once
rates or inflation rise from current levels, but
intermediate -
term bonds should continue to dampen stock market volatility.
As of January 2013,
intermediate -
term real interest
rates are about 4 % less than their historical average.
Despite the Fed's 25 basis point
rate hike,
intermediate term investment grade bonds (Corporates and Munis) still squeaked out positive returns in Q1.
For example, if inflation and interest
rates increase rapidly soon, it may be prudent to add more bonds to your portfolio or replace cash ballast with
intermediate term bonds.
Specifically, they relate spot West Texas
Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price to: the U.S. dollar exchange
rate versus a basket of developed market currencies; Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) return; U.S. short -
term interest
rate; the S&P 500 options - implied volatility index (VIX); and, open interest in the NYMEX crude oil futures (as an indication of financialization of the oil market).
Finally, in our view, opportunities do continue to present themselves over the short - to -
intermediate term in fixed income; longer
term, we are cognizant that there could well be some
rate risk down the line driven by inflation.
However, assuming
rates do rise over the
intermediate to long -
term, there can be tremendous opportunity cost in owning bonds with low coupons and lengthy maturity.
We continue to have a very positive fundamental
intermediate -
term view, but believe (1) the improved economic data, (2) fear of higher interest
rates, (3) a less dovish Fed, (4) historically low volatility, and extreme overbought condition creates an environment ripe for a correction.
When the Fed raises short -
term rates — or when it is expected to do so in the future —
intermediate and longer -
term rates also tend to go up.
Neutral or even long
intermediate and long -
term rates to reflect expectations that policy tightening would achieve the goal of bring down long -
term inflation
Equally important, even during extended speculative periods as we observed in the late - 1990's, those advances have tended to suffer deep and abrupt
intermediate -
term corrections once elevated valuations are joined by overbought conditions, overbullish sentiment, and rising interest
rates, as we observe today.
It should also be noted that short -
term,
intermediate -
term and long -
term interest
rates may not rise or fall at the same pace as one another.
As for bonds, you want to own both government and high - quality corporate issues in a range of maturities (although, to protect yourself against the possibility of rising
rates, you'll want to keep the average maturity of your overall holdings in the short - to
intermediate -
term range).
Low
intermediate term interest
rates in the US portend bad returns from investing in US Dollar denominated debt, so the US Dollar declines.
With short -
term bond fund
rates between 0.5 % and 2 %, and
intermediate -
term bond fund
rates between 1.5 % and 3.3 %, there is plenty of downside risk due to the potential for higher future interest
rates (bond prices fall when interest
rates rise), and not much upside potential due to the current low
rates.
The Ally 5 year CD gives you a guaranteed
rate of return in the range of an
intermediate -
term bond fund, with much less risk than a short -
term bond fund.
To illustrate, assume
intermediate -
term interest
rates steadily increase by 1 % over the next year.
If interest
rates were to rise only 1 %, the value of a typical short -
term bond fund would decrease by about 2 %, and the value of a typical
intermediate -
term bond fund would decrease by about 5 %.
With money market
rates close to 0 %, short -
term bond
rates between 0.3 % (treasuries) and 1.75 % (investment grade), and
intermediate -
term bond
rates between 1.3 % (treasuries) and 3.1 % (investment grade), the PenFed 7 - year CD
rate of 3.5 % is very good.
The metrics that track some of these trends - the level of profit margins in relation to sales growth, sector valuation, and a downward drifting earnings surprise
rate - are currently highlighting potential
intermediate -
term risks on the earnings front.
Compare Putnam funds in FundVisualizer: Select a Putnam fund to compare Putnam Growth Opportunities Fund Putnam Pennsylvania Tax Exempt Income Fund Putnam Putnam PanAgora Risk Parity Fund Putnam Global Sector Fund Putnam Putnam PanAgora Managed Futures Strategy Putnam Multi-Cap Core Fund Putnam Putnam PanAgora Market Neutral Fund Putnam Capital Spectrum Fund Putnam Global Equity Fund Putnam Equity Spectrum Fund Putnam George Putnam Balanced Fund Putnam Global Income Trust Putnam Global Health Care Fund Putnam Short Duration Income Fund Putnam Dynamic Risk Allocation Fund Putnam High Yield Fund Putnam Floating
Rate Income Fund Putnam Sustainable Leaders Fund Putnam New Jersey Tax Exempt Income Fund Putnam RetirementReady 2060 Fund Putnam Multi-Asset Absolute Return Fund Putnam Government Money Market Fund (A Shares) Putnam Equity Income Fund Putnam Europe Equity Fund Putnam Dynamic Asset Allocation Conservative Fund Putnam RetirementReady 2055 Fund Putnam Dynamic Asset Allocation Balanced Fund Putnam New York Tax Exempt Income Fund Putnam Dynamic Asset Allocation Growth Fund Putnam Retirement Income Fund Lifestyle 1 Putnam Ohio Tax Exempt Income Fund Putnam International Equity Fund Putnam Small Cap Value Fund Putnam Massachusetts Tax Exempt Income Fund Putnam Diversified Income Trust Putnam Convertible Securities Fund Putnam California Tax Exempt Income Fund Putnam Global Financials Fund Putnam Small Cap Growth Fund Putnam Global Consumer Fund Putnam International Capital Opportunities Fund Putnam International Value Fund Putnam Global Telecommunications Fund Putnam Global Natural Resources Fund Putnam Money Market Fund (A Shares) Putnam Global Technology Fund Putnam Global Industrials Fund Putnam Tax - Free High Yield Fund Putnam Capital Opportunities Fund Putnam Global Utilities Fund Putnam Research Fund Putnam Minnesota Tax Exempt Income Fund Putnam Mortgage Securities Fund Putnam Fixed Income Absolute Return Fund Putnam AMT - Free Municipal Fund Putnam Absolute Return 100 Fund Putnam Short -
Term Municipal Income Fund Putnam RetirementReady 2030 Fund Putnam International Growth Fund Putnam RetirementReady 2045 Fund Putnam
Intermediate -
Term Municipal Income Fund Putnam Tax Exempt Income Fund Putnam RetirementReady 2050 Fund Putnam Income Fund Putnam Sustainable Future Fund Putnam Emerging Markets Income Fund Putnam Emerging Markets Equity Fund Putnam Investors Fund Putnam RetirementReady 2020 Fund Putnam RetirementReady 2025 Fund Putnam RetirementReady 2035 Fund Putnam RetirementReady 2040 Fund
Recall that the yield curve describes the difference between short -
term,
intermediate, and long
term interest
rates.
The Fund received a
rating of 5 stars for the 3 - year period,
rated against 837
Intermediate -
Term Bond funds.
There are a couple other
intermediate -
term bond funds that have recently shortened their interest
rate exposures enough to be considered short -
term, but since that's a purely tactical move, we excluded them.
Last year, I had combined
intermediate term timing with a dividend strategy to lift the continuing withdrawal
rate to 5.4 % (plus inflation) under realistic assumptions or 4.8 % (plus inflation) using highly conservative assumptions.
Focusing on dividends, timing the market on an
INTERMEDIATE TERM basis (not in
terms of only two or three years), and shunning stock sales lifts the continuing withdrawal
rate above 6 % (plus inflation).
So a short -
term bond fund will not be subject to large gains or losses due to
rate changes, an
intermediate -
term bond fund will be subject to moderate gains or losses, and a long -
term bond fund will be subject to the largest gains or losses.
We group funds by duration, separating short -
term funds from
intermediate - and long -
term funds, to make it easy for investors to find bond funds that have a lower duration — and thus lower interest
rate risk.
Key credit spreads were widening, such as those between
intermediate -
term treasury bonds and riskier corporate bonds in funds like iShares Baa - Ba
Rated Corporate Bond ETF (BATS: QLTB) or SPDR High Yield Bond (JNK).
Both long -
term and
intermediate -
term Treasury ETFs produced total returns in the 4 % to 5 % range, with only minimal price appreciation as declines in
rates slowed compared to 2011.
Market - based systems are not fit for use by regulators, because
ratings are supposed to be like fundamental investors, and think through the
intermediate -
term.
The Fund invests primarily in real return instruments, including short - and
intermediate -
term TIPS, as well as floating -
rate loans, asset - backed securities (ABS) and commercial mortgage - backed securities (CMBS) where interest payments on the floating -
rate loans and ABS / CMBS are swapped for those based on changes in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI).
Since short - and
intermediate -
term TIPS, as well as the floating -
rate loans and the ABS / CMBS swapped for CPI, receive the same inflation adjustment as other, longer - dated inflation - linked securities, they may be able to provide similar protection from inflation, but with less interest
rate risk.
They are portrayed as conservative
intermediate to long -
term government or AAA
rated bonds used for security, spewing out returns that barely keep up with inflation.
If interest
rates rise from current levels,
intermediate and long -
term bonds would suffer substantial losses.
As long as
rate increases are gradual, short - and
intermediate -
term municipal bonds are not likely to disappoint market participants.
The fact that the Federal Reserve is raising its overnight lending
rate and seeing little reaction from the yields of
intermediate and longer -
term bonds is an indication that bond investors do not believe in the strength of the economic outlook going forward.
ABDLX was
rated 4, 4 and 4 stars for the Overall, 3 - and 5 - year periods against 847, 847, and 778
Intermediate -
Term Bond funds, respectively.
As of 12/31/17, ADLIX was
rated 5, 5 and 5 stars for the Overall, 3 - and 5 - year periods against 847, 847, and 778
Intermediate -
Term Bond funds, respectively.
Managers in the
intermediate -
term actively managed bond category saw the most substantial improvement in their one - year success
rate; 85 % of these funds survived and outperformed their passive peers.
As of 03/31/18, ADBLX was
rated 4, 4 and 4 stars for the Overall, 3 - and 5 - year periods against 858, 858, and 784
Intermediate -
Term Bond funds, respectively.
Here's a way to think about it: if the company borrowed money over the
intermediate -
term from a bank, or floated a bond, what kind of
rate would they pay?
He figures that if he compounds net worth at an above average
rate, he will beat the market returns of the S&P 500 over the
intermediate term.
«
Intermediate -
term bonds are struggling this year as
rates rise,» Janet said.
The combination of these two events means that the yield curve should steepen with anchored short -
term rates and increasing
intermediate to long
term rates.
The investment manager for the stable value fund invests in a portfolio of
intermediate term bonds with an average duration of approximately three to four years that will provide a significantly higher interest
rate, or yield, than for example the short -
term (average 60 days or less) securities typically held by a money market fund.
At the same time, some countries in Europe and Japan were issuing short and even
intermediate term bonds with negative interest
rates to stimulate their economies.
As noted in Article 6.2, the strategies of either using
intermediate term individual bonds or bond funds are likely to provide low returns, at least until after interest
rates have risen somewhat.