Not exact matches
Given the strength
of the Hurst coefficients — something we all agree on — is it not possible that a large portion
of the current warming trend is a product
of internal climate variability, as mediated by complex dynamics
of ocean circulation?
Discussion requires examination
of how the freshwater injections alter the
ocean circulation and
internal ocean temperature.
Climate modeling groups have also been experimenting with ways to use the predictability
of deeper
ocean circulations (where
internal variations can persist for up to a decade), but results have been mixed at best.
In attempting to substantiate this
internal variability hypothesis, Spencer & Braswell (2011) assumed that the change in top
of the atmosphere (TOA) energy flux due to cloud cover changes from 2000 to 2010 was twice as large as the heating
of the climate system through
ocean circulation.
In the case
of oceans the energy does penetrate the surface layers and is often carried away for eventual release elsewhere and at another time, depending on the
ocean currents and other
internal oceanic mechanisms such as the flow
of the Thermohaline
Circulation with a period
of more than 800 years for a full circuit.
It should also be noted that observations related to sub-surface
ocean circulation (oceanology), the prime source
of internal variability, have only recently commenced on a consistent global scale.
The temperature
of the troposphere is constantly being affected by variations in the rate
of energy flow from the
oceans driven by
internal ocean variability, possibly caused by temperature fluctuations along the horizontal route
of the thermohaline
circulation and by variations in energy flow from the sun that affect the size (and thus density)
of the atmosphere and the rate
of energy loss to space.
Patterns
of ocean and atmosphere
circulation shift in response to
internal climate dynamics and at a rapid pace determined by the dynamics
of the system rather than any external factor.
The efficiency
of each resistor varies independently because each has it's own set
of internal circulations, the
ocean cycles in the seas and the weather systems in the air.
While we have not evaluated all
of the feedback mechanisms and
internal and external forcing factors involved, we have shown evidence that the West Antarctic warming is consistent with the regional decline
of sea ice in the ABS and with the atmospheric
circulation trends over the Southern
Oceans.
The existence
of that cooler layer is evidence that the rate
of evaporation is the primary influence on variability in the rate
of ocean energy loss (apart from
internal ocean circulation variability which is not relevant here) and it follows that more evaporation for the same rate
of conduction and radiation (from a stable temperature differential) will send that cooler layer deeper and / or intensify the temperature differential between it and the
ocean bulk below.
Some examples from energy balance model calculations indicate that: (1) solar variability has a near - global response, with the amplitude
of response slightly larger over land; (2) volcanism has a proportionately larger amplitude
of response over land than over
ocean; and (3) the most oft - cited mode
of internal variability, changes in the North Atlantic thermohaline
circulation, has a hemispheric asymmetry in response.
The natural
internal variability
of the climate system arises from factors such as El Niño, fluctuations in the thermohaline
circulation, and changes in
ocean heat content.
Dr. Andreas Schmittner [responding to Dr. Paltridge's claim that the observed surface warming could have been caused by
internal ocean fluctuations]: Could the Earth's observed surface warming
of the last 50 years have been caused by
ocean circulation?
This natural
internal variability
of surface temperature is an interaction between
ocean circulations and winds.
Given the strength
of the Hurst coefficients — something we all agree on — is it not possible that a large portion
of the current warming trend is a product
of internal climate variability, as mediated by complex dynamics
of ocean circulation?
The medieval warm period and little ice age (whther they are local or global phenomena) are believed to be associated with thermohaline
circulations in the atlantic; correct simulation
of such long term
internal oscillations in an
ocean basin requires long term simulations for the
ocean for which we don't really have any observational constraints.