Sentences with phrase «internal inflation forecast»
The Bank of Canada is not supposed to follow any simple instrument rule, like a Taylor Rule, if that simple rule leaves out any information that might be relevant for the Bank's internal inflation forecast.
http://worthwhile.typepad.com/ Not exact matches
The ECB may revise up its inflation forecasts but looks unlikely to deviate from its policy stance, especially after hard - fought internal battles to adopt an asset - purchase program that is just starting to prove effective.
The whole point of inflation forecast targeting is that the Bank of Canada does not «accommodate» any shock to Aggregate Demand that would change its internal forecast of future output and hence future inflation.
As usual, I don't place too much emphasis on this sort of forecast, but to the extent that I make any comments at all about the outlook for 2006, the bottom line is this: 1) we can't rule out modest potential for stock appreciation, which would require the maintenance or expansion of already high price / peak earnings multiples; 2) we also should recognize an uncomfortably large potential for market losses, particularly given that the current bull market has now outlived the median and average bull, yet at higher valuations than most bulls have achieved, a flat yield curve with rising interest rate pressures, an extended period of internal divergence as measured by breadth and other market action, and complacency at best and excessive bullishness at worst, as measured by various sentiment indicators; 3) there is a moderate but still not compelling risk of an oncoming recession, which would become more of a factor if we observe a substantial widening of credit spreads and weakness in the ISM Purchasing Managers Index in the months ahead, and; 4) there remains substantial potential for U.S. dollar weakness coupled with «unexpectedly» persistent inflation pressures, particularly if we do observe economic weakness.
The ECB may revise up its inflation forecasts but looks unlikely to deviate from its policy stance, especially after hard - fought internal battles to adopt an asset - purchase program that is just starting to prove effective.