Climate variability best describes the shorter multi-centennial trends which are merely the overprinting
internal oscillations on longer - term climate change.
Not exact matches
Patterns of variability that don't match the predicted fingerprints from the examined drivers (the «residuals») can be large — especially
on short - time scales, and look in most cases like the modes of
internal variability that we've been used to; ENSO / PDO, the North Atlantic multidecadal
oscillation etc..
Doing a quick search
on climate
oscillations using the
internal search engine at PNAS I found the following:
However, if the roughly 10 - year
oscillation of global temperature we have seen over the last several decades (be it due to the solar cycle or
internal) holds
on, we will see a considerable temperature increase during the coming years, since we are at the minimum now.
Ironically, while some continue to attack this nearly decade - old work, the actual scientific community has moved well beyond the earlier studies, focusing now
on the detailed patterns of modeled and reconstructed climate changes in past centuries, and insights into the roles of external forcing and
internal modes of variability (such as the North Atlantic
Oscillation or «NAO» and the «El Nino / Southern
Oscillation» or «ENSO») in explaining this past variability.
The strongest
internal variability in the climate system
on this time scale is the change from El Niño to La Niña — a natural, stochastic «seesaw» in the tropical Pacific called ENSO (El Niño Southern
Oscillation).
The system will have natural
internal oscillations that vary with the numerous processes that become more or less important depending
on the current conditions at that time.
On the question of hurricanes, the theoretical arguments that more energy and water vapor in the atmosphere should lead to stronger storms are really sound (after all, storm intensity increases going from pole toward equator), but determining precisely how human influences (so including GHGs [greenhouse gases] and aerosols, and land cover change) should be changing hurricanes in a system where there are natural external (solar and volcanoes) and
internal (e.g., ENSO, NAO [El Nino - Southern
Oscillation, North Atlantic
Oscillation]-RRB- influences is quite problematic — our climate models are just not good enough yet to carry out the types of sensitivity tests that have been done using limited area hurricane models run for relatively short times.
Many deny that there are
internal oscillation «wiggles» that have an impact
on climate over undetermined time scales.
«
On forced temperature changes, internal variability, and the AMO» «Tracking the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation through the last 8,000 years» «The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation as a dominant factor of oceanic influence on climate» «The role of Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation in the global mean temperature variability» «The North Atlantic Oscillation as a driver of rapid climate change in the Northern Hemisphere» «The Atlanto - Pacific multidecade oscillation and its imprint on the global temperature record» «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» «North Atlantic Multidecadal SST Oscillation: External forcing versus internal variability» «Forced and internal twentieth - century SST trends in the North Atlantic» «Interactive comment on «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» by J. Mikšovský et al.» «Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures&raqu
On forced temperature changes,
internal variability, and the AMO» «Tracking the Atlantic Multidecadal
Oscillation through the last 8,000 years» «The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation as a dominant factor of oceanic influence on climate» «The role of Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation in the global mean temperature variability» «The North Atlantic Oscillation as a driver of rapid climate change in the Northern Hemisphere» «The Atlanto - Pacific multidecade oscillation and its imprint on the global temperature record» «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» «North Atlantic Multidecadal SST Oscillation: External forcing versus internal variability» «Forced and internal twentieth - century SST trends in the North Atlantic» «Interactive comment on «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» by J. Mikšovský et al.» «Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperat
Oscillation through the last 8,000 years» «The Atlantic Multidecadal
Oscillation as a dominant factor of oceanic influence on climate» «The role of Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation in the global mean temperature variability» «The North Atlantic Oscillation as a driver of rapid climate change in the Northern Hemisphere» «The Atlanto - Pacific multidecade oscillation and its imprint on the global temperature record» «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» «North Atlantic Multidecadal SST Oscillation: External forcing versus internal variability» «Forced and internal twentieth - century SST trends in the North Atlantic» «Interactive comment on «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» by J. Mikšovský et al.» «Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperat
Oscillation as a dominant factor of oceanic influence
on climate» «The role of Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation in the global mean temperature variability» «The North Atlantic Oscillation as a driver of rapid climate change in the Northern Hemisphere» «The Atlanto - Pacific multidecade oscillation and its imprint on the global temperature record» «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» «North Atlantic Multidecadal SST Oscillation: External forcing versus internal variability» «Forced and internal twentieth - century SST trends in the North Atlantic» «Interactive comment on «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» by J. Mikšovský et al.» «Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures&raqu
on climate» «The role of Atlantic Multi-decadal
Oscillation in the global mean temperature variability» «The North Atlantic Oscillation as a driver of rapid climate change in the Northern Hemisphere» «The Atlanto - Pacific multidecade oscillation and its imprint on the global temperature record» «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» «North Atlantic Multidecadal SST Oscillation: External forcing versus internal variability» «Forced and internal twentieth - century SST trends in the North Atlantic» «Interactive comment on «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» by J. Mikšovský et al.» «Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperat
Oscillation in the global mean temperature variability» «The North Atlantic
Oscillation as a driver of rapid climate change in the Northern Hemisphere» «The Atlanto - Pacific multidecade oscillation and its imprint on the global temperature record» «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» «North Atlantic Multidecadal SST Oscillation: External forcing versus internal variability» «Forced and internal twentieth - century SST trends in the North Atlantic» «Interactive comment on «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» by J. Mikšovský et al.» «Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperat
Oscillation as a driver of rapid climate change in the Northern Hemisphere» «The Atlanto - Pacific multidecade
oscillation and its imprint on the global temperature record» «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» «North Atlantic Multidecadal SST Oscillation: External forcing versus internal variability» «Forced and internal twentieth - century SST trends in the North Atlantic» «Interactive comment on «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» by J. Mikšovský et al.» «Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperat
oscillation and its imprint
on the global temperature record» «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» «North Atlantic Multidecadal SST Oscillation: External forcing versus internal variability» «Forced and internal twentieth - century SST trends in the North Atlantic» «Interactive comment on «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» by J. Mikšovský et al.» «Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures&raqu
on the global temperature record» «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» «North Atlantic Multidecadal SST
Oscillation: External forcing versus internal variability» «Forced and internal twentieth - century SST trends in the North Atlantic» «Interactive comment on «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» by J. Mikšovský et al.» «Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperat
Oscillation: External forcing versus
internal variability» «Forced and
internal twentieth - century SST trends in the North Atlantic» «Interactive comment
on «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» by J. Mikšovský et al.» «Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures&raqu
on «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» by J. Mikšovský et al.» «Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal
oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures»
Internal ocean
oscillations operate
on a range of timescales, out to millenia.
«Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal
oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures» «
On forced temperature changes,
internal variability, and the AMO» «Tracking the Atlantic Multidecadal
Oscillation through the last 8,000 years»
So now you have a situation where the models are producing not only enough
internal variability to explain the warming since mid 20th century but are also producing a warming secular trend upon which to place that
oscillation, at least
on some runs this must be happening.
Zack over at Lucia's did an AMO versus North Atlantic SST that showed some degree of anthropogenic impact riding
on internal oscillation.
The temperature of the whole world swings back and forth year - over-year because of
internal variation, notably the el Nino
oscillation which exposes or hides warm water
on the equator.
Natural factors such as the Sun (84 papers), multi-decadal oceanic - atmospheric
oscillations such as the NAO, AMO / PDO, ENSO (31 papers), decadal - scale cloud cover variations, and
internal variability in general have exerted a significant influence
on weather and climate changes during both the past and present.