This interpretation of the temperature record is consistent with the results of several recent studies.
Not exact matches
To contribute to an understanding
of the underlying causes
of these changes we compile various environmental
records (and model - based
interpretations of some
of them) in order to calculate the direct effect
of various processes on Earth's radiative budget and, thus, on global annual mean surface
temperature over the last 800,000 years.
My
interpretation of this is that you are saying that if we want to get an understanding
of temperature trends on centennial or millenial timescales, we should wilfully ignore the higher - precision instrumental
record in favour
of the lower - precision proxies.
In the light
of the satellite
record, as well as the absence
of any systematic change in global
temperature for almost two decades, the proclaimed
interpretation of this summer should be recognised for what it is: a simplistic explanation
of a complex physical system.
Studies surveyed Millar, R. et al. (2017) Emission budgets and pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 C, Nature Geophysics, doi: 10.1038 / ngeo3031 Matthews, H.D., et al. (2017) Estimating Carbon Budgets for Ambitious Climate Targets, Current Climate Change Reports, doi: 10.1007 / s40641 -017-0055-0 Goodwin, P., et al. (2018) Pathways to 1.5 C and 2C warming based on observational and geological constraints, Nature Geophysics, doi: 10.1038 / s41561 -017-0054-8 Schurer, A.P., et al. (2018)
Interpretations of the Paris climate target, Nature Geophysics, doi: 10.1038 / s41561 -018-0086-8 Tokarska, K., and Gillett, N. (2018) Cumulative carbon emissions budgets consistent with 1.5 C global warming, Nature Climate Change, doi: 10.1038 / s41558 -018-0118-9 Millar, R., and Friedlingstein, P. (2018) The utility
of the historical
record for assessing the transient climate response to cumulative emissions, Philosophical Transactions
of the Royal Society A, doi: 10.1098 / rsta.2016.0449 Lowe, J.A., and Bernie, D. (2018) The impact
of Earth system feedbacks on carbon budgets and climate response, Philosophical Transactions
of the Royal Society A, doi: 10.1098 / rsta.2017.0263 Rogelj, J., et al. (2018) Scenarios towards limiting global mean
temperature increase below 1.5 C, Nature Climate Change, doi: 10.1038 / s41558 -018-0091-3 Kriegler, E., et al. (2018) Pathways limiting warming to 1.5 °C: A tale
of turning around in no time, Philosophical Transactions
of the Royal Society A, doi: 10.1098 / rsta.2016.0457
It seems that you completely missed my point, which is essentially avoided too by Judith Curry's intention to do a post hoc analysis
of this year's
temperature record, rather than to attempt a trivial statistical prediction
of short - term trend, and to offer a covering explanation
of the
interpretation of such.
Not sure the judge will care very much that Briffa, etc (or anyone else, for that matter) arrive at a different
interpretation of the ancient
temperature record.
«
Record 20 was corrected to reflect the
interpretation of Tijander et al. (S32) that X-ray density is related inversely to
temperature Record 21 was corrected to reflect the
interpretation of Haltia - Hovi et al. (S33) that varve thickness is related inversely to
temperature»
From a scientific point
of view the exact execution and framing could be criticized on certain aspects (e.g. ECS is linearly extrapolated instead
of logarithmically; the
interpretation that recent
record warmth are not peaks but rather a «correction to the trend line» depends strongly on the exact way the endpoints
of the observed
temperature are smoothed; the effect
of non-CO2 greenhouse gases is excluded from the analysis and discussion), but the underlying point, that more warming is in store than we're currently seeing, is both valid and very important.
IF the
interpretation was wrong and despite «
record» levels
of co2 the
temperature was not «unusual» in the context
of the Holocene would this call for action be heeded?
He didn't say «invalidates the entire dendrochronological
record», he said «invalidates the previous 900 years
of spurious nonsense» — which are the
interpretations of the dendrochronological
record as
temperatures.