European Space Agency (ESA) organises a series of summer schools on Monitoring of the Earth System to promote the exploitation of Earth Observation EO data across disciplines, with a specific focus on their assimilation
into Earth System models.
Instead, climate modelling efforts are moving in the direction of throwing more ancillary elements
into an earth system modeling framework.
Not exact matches
«For the first time, space weather forecasters now have
models and tools for predicting how a CME is released from the sun, accelerated out
into the solar wind, and ultimately ends up colliding with
Earth's magnetosphere creating the geomagnetic storms that impact so many technologies and
systems,» says Rodney Viereck of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Space Environment Center.
The recent slowdown in global warming has brought
into question the reliability of climate
model projections of future temperature change and has led to a vigorous debate over whether this slowdown is the result of naturally occurring, internal variability or forcing external to
Earth's climate
system.
Their
models showed that if you visited any star with a planet orbiting from the same distance as
Earth down to one tenth that, there is about a 38 percent chance (and likely less) that you would run
into a planet and moon
system similar to Jupiter's four Galilean satellites (Io, Europa, Ganymede and Callisto), with similar ratios of moon to planetary diameters and orbital to planetary radii.
From Pluto in this scale
model, to reach the nearest star
system, Alpha Centauri, you'd have to travel some 2900 kilometers: roughly the distance between Memphis and San Francisco, or about how far you'd have to dig straight down
into the
Earth before reaching its outer core.
Robin Canup of the Southwest Research Institute and Erik Asphaug of the University of California at Santa Cruz used a highly detailed computer
modeling system — one that divided
Earth and its impactor
into more than 20,000 tiny particles whose interactions under stress both with each other and with gravity were simulated — to investigate their scenario.
Running simulations with an
Earth System model, the researchers find that if atmospheric CO2 were still at pre-industrial levels, our current warm «interglacial» period would tip over
into a new ice age in around 50,000 years» time.
There are multiple real things to discuss about this — the methodology, the relatively small number of cores being used (compared to what could have been analyzed), the age
modeling etc. — and many interesting applications — constraints on polar amplification, the mid-Pleistocene transition, the duration and nature of previous interglacials — but unfortunately, the bulk of the attention will be paid to a specific (erroneous) claim about
Earth System Sensitivity (ESS) that made it
into the abstract and was the lead conclusion in the press release.
(1) In this case even if they were correct and the
models failed to predict or match reality (which, acc to this post has not been adequately established, bec we're still in overlapping data and
model confidence intervals), it could just as well mean that AGW stands and the modelers have failed to include some less well understood or unquantifiable
earth system variable
into the
models, or there are other unknowns within our weather / climate /
earth systems, or some noise or choas or catastrophe (whose equation has not been found yet) thing.
There are multiple real things to discuss about this — the methodology, the relatively small number of cores being used (compared to what could have been analyzed), the age
modeling etc. — and many interesting applications — constraints on polar amplification, the mid-Pleistocene transition, the duration and nature of previous interglacials — but unfortunately, the bulk of the attention will be paid to a specific (erroneous) claim about
Earth System Sensitivity (ESS) that made it
into the abstract and was the lead conclusion in the press release.
Sea surface temperature (SST) measured from
Earth Observation Satellites in considerable spatial detail and at high frequency, is increasingly required for use in the context of operational monitoring and forecasting of the ocean, for assimilation
into coupled ocean - atmosphere
model systems and for applications in short - term numerical weather prediction and longer term climate change detection.
In this study, we incorporate height - structured competition for light, competition for water, and explicit scaling from individuals to ecosystems
into the land
model version 3 (LM3) currently used in the
Earth system models developed by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL).
If you were to produce a chaotic
model using the above, I would venture a prediction that the above former were the massive attractors about which we could make some decent predictions about the future but that the latter human produced CO2 inserted
into our atmosphere would leave us with hopelessly inadequate and wrong predictions because CO2 contributed by man is not an attractor of any significance in the chaotic
Earth climate
system nor is CO2 produced by man a perturbation that would yield any predictive ability.
The Joint Program IAM integrates a geospatially resolved physical representation of climate impacts
into a coupled human and
Earth system modeling framework.
IMO, the standard 1D energy balance
model of the
Earth's climate
system will provide little in the way of further insights; rather we need to bring additional physics and theory (e.g. entropy and the 2nd law)
into the simple
models, and explore the complexity of coupled nonlinear climate
system characterized by spatiotemporal chaos.
In response to a growing need to systematically analyze coupled ocean and atmosphere
model outputs from multiple climate
modeling centres, it has subsequently grown
into a large program to advance
model development and scientific understanding of the
Earth system.
Experiment with the values, it is an interesting insight
into the energy flows in the simplest possible climate
model that can represent the
Earth's greenhouse
system.
«Analyze geoscience data and the results from global climate
models to make an evidence - based forecast of the current rate of global or regional climate change and associated future impacts to
Earth systems.Use a
model to describe how variations in the flow of energy
into and out of
Earth's
systems result in changes in climate.»
If you imagine
into existence a
model that has zero sensitivity to CO2 but which otherwise simulates every directly observable behaviour of the
earth system in perfect detail, then sure, we might well consider that the climate
system sensitivity could be zero.
2) I actually used the Trenberth
model to estimate how the 1366 Watts / m ^ 2 should be distributed
into the
Earth System, which I specifically said included BOTH the Atmosphere and the Surface.