These particles pose health risks to populations, especially to the medically vulnerable, By infusing CATS data directly
into aerosol models, data from CATS can make a difference in tracking and responding to impacts of similar events in the future.
Not exact matches
Computer
models suggest that the
aerosols, rich in sulfate, would have reflected sunshine and plunged Earth
into darkness for up to five years, shutting down photosynthesis and triggering a nuclear winter.
Knowing the speed and height at which
aerosols are being thrown
into the air can be used for more accurate climate
modeling or creating a perfect glass of champagne.
The information could also feed
into climate
models to help understand the effects of clouds and
aerosols on Earth's energy balance.
«I had done some work
modeling aerosols produced by volcanic eruptions for other projects, so I started looking
into how we might detect an eruption and what it would tell us.»
One of those adjustments is to add +0.3 W / m ² to the figures used for
model aerosol forcing to bring the estimated
model aerosol forcing
into line with the AR5 best estimate of -0.9 W / m ².»
During Stage 3, these process and property
models are incorporated
into integrated
aerosol models at the regional scale and then at the global scale.
This type of systems perspective is critical to better understanding the interaction of
aerosols and clouds and incorporating these processes
into climate
modeling frameworks.
Vision PNNL will take a leadership role in the incorporation of
aerosols into climate
models, through integrative research on atmospheric
aerosol interactions and through development of innovative instrumentation and measurement techniques.
Much of the uncertainty in projections of global climate change is due to the complexity of clouds,
aerosols, and cloud -
aerosol interactions, and the difficulty of incorporating this information
into climate
models.
Jerome Fast has lead a team of PNNL scientists that have contributed a gas - phase chemistry mechanism, an sectional
aerosol model, cloud chemistry, cloud -
aerosol interactions, and radiative feedback processes
into the chemistry version of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF - chem)
model.
High - resolution simulations are being performed that resolve the local and regional variations of particulate characteristics to obtain a better understanding of important
aerosol processes that need to be incorporated
into larger - scale climate
models.
Now, scientists can add
aerosols» fundamental properties
into the
models, opening the door to discover how the most abundant particulates in the atmosphere affect our climate and air quality.
Possible reasons include increased oceanic circulation leading to increased subduction of heat
into the ocean, higher than normal levels of stratospheric
aerosols due to volcanoes during the past decade, incorrect ozone levels used as input to the
models, lower than expected solar output during the last few years, or poorly
modeled cloud feedback effects.
Typically, scientists incorporate new
aerosol process modules
into models and then evaluate them using limited laboratory or field data.
In those cases, looking at the relationship between temperatures and humidity, or cloudiness and
aerosols can give insight
into whether the
model processes are realistic or not.
Note too that the details of how
aerosols are implemented in any specific
model can also make a difference to the forcing, and there are many (as yet untested) assumptions built
into the forcing reconstructions.
Turning a sulphate peak
into an
aerosol optical depth in time and space is tricky and the two groups who've attempted this took different approaches: either a scaling to Pinatubo (for which we have have good data), or via a
model of the the injection.
The (GCM)
models don't reflect reality anywhere if the direct and indirect cooling by (mostly) sulfate
aerosols are not taken
into account (see the IPCC graph.
They used climate
model simulations that took
into account the changes in
aerosol emissions.
The problem arises, I believe, when strong feedbacks, «masking» effects of
aerosols and volcanoes and other uncertain assumptions are fed
into computer
models to generate catastrophic scenarios for the near - medium future.
While I can't speak as an expert, I did do a little more digging, this time
into the IPCC AR4 WG1 and found a lot of information on
aerosol modelling and the newest developments.
and chapter 8.2.5 ″
Aerosol Modelling and Atmospheric Chemistry» discusses new methods for projecting
into the future:
In trying to sort out which
models use what for
aerosol forcing, I ran
into a dead end (rather dead link) referenced to in Table S9.1.
According to
model simulations, an eruption this large can pump so much sulfur dioxide gas
into the stratosphere that the atmosphere does not have the capacity to oxidize all the SO2 to sulfuric acid
aerosol.
2) There are errors in the assumed forcings, such as: a) AR5 let stratospheric
aerosol concentration go to zero after 2000 (a sure way to prod the
models into higher predictions), but it actually increased for the next 10 years «probably due to a large number of small volcanic eruptions».
The global
aerosol total, plugged
into a simple climate
model, translates
into a cooling impact of between 0.09 and 0.22 degrees Fahrenheit (0.05 to 0.12 degrees Celsius) since 2000.
The Sectional
Aerosol Model (SALSA) developed at the Kuopio Unit has been integrated
into several international climate
models.
One of those adjustments is to add +0.3 W / m ² to the figures used for
model aerosol forcing to bring the estimated
model aerosol forcing
into line with the AR5 best estimate of -0.9 W / m ².
«This doesn't necessarily mean that every eruption will be able to get sulfur dioxide
into the stratosphere and form
aerosols, but they are just neglected entirely in the climate
models from the [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change],» Ridley said.
Although computer
models tend to agree that it's best to inject the
aerosols into the stratosphere above the tropics or subtropics, and that the
aerosols would disperse globally, the
models differ on the extent of injection required for a given level of cooling, the authors wrote.
Well, there is a lot of magical thinking built
into the
models, from unrealistic emission scenarios that disregard proven fossil fuel reserves, to made up sensitivity values from overestimated
aerosol forcings and underestimated solar forcings, and made up feedbacks.
However, each
model needed a different value for the
aerosol cancellation.4 This lack of consistency means that
aerosols were merely an adjustment factor to bring the
models into agreement with the historical record, while preserving a high climate sensitivity.
Incorporating new findings on the radiative forcing of black carbon (BC)
aerosols, the magnitude of the climate sensitivity, and the strength of the climate / carbon cycle feedbacks
into a simple upwelling diffusion / energy balance
model similar to the one that was used in the TAR, we find that the range of projected warming for the 1990 - 2100 period is reduced to 1.1 - 2.8 °C.
A recent paper by Dr. Tami Bond and colleagues finds that carbon
aerosols — particulates released
into that atmosphere from a variety of human activities including diesel engines, open cook stoves, poorly filtered coal burning, and open burning, etc. — have played a much larger role in impacting the climate than has been previously recognized (and included in climate
models).
This is an unfortunate consequence of GCM
modeling at the cell level, coupled with IPCC's treatment of
aerosol effects within a cell, absent a cellular cloud fraction integrated
into a global cloud cover.
«We
modelled sulphate
aerosols which is sort of an analogue for when you have a large volcanic eruption - but instead of putting
aerosols into your
model you can also just reduce the amount of solar radiation coming
into your system,» said Dr Charlton - Perez.
Since it's been known for some time that black carbon is a significant cause of Arctic warming, what is the reason that it and other
aerosols have not been factored
into the climate
models — for what reason would such an important factor be left out?