Then again, these challenges are an enjoyable bloggers & readers interaction, and it's always fun to guess at / see revealed market value vs.
intrinsic value estimates.
I'd also be slow to change my long - term
intrinsic value estimates per boe in - the - ground (for example, $ 10 per proved boe), even though oil has fallen to $ 50... note I didn't increase my boe valuations when oil rallied from $ 80 to $ 120 + either.
Obviously, be aware
my intrinsic value estimates are now out of date, but the file should still provide interesting food for thought.
Value investors tend to use
intrinsic value estimates to estimate risk.
I ran a few discounted free cash flow models that I wasn't too confident in but they mostly showed
me intrinsic value estimates from between $ 25 and $ 55.
We try to accomplish this by keeping
our intrinsic value estimates grounded in data, research and analysis, and a long - term understanding of the qualitative business fundamentals to guide our buy, sell, and hold decisions.
After purchasing a holding, we aim to sell it when its price has converged with — or exceeded —
our intrinsic value estimate.
- Applying a 3.5 x revenue multiple to WU.com, which is a discount to Xoom's 4.8 x revenue takeover multiple, and 15x EV / FCF to WU's remaining businesses (retail C2C, C2B, and B2B), which is a substantial discount to MoneyGram's 21x EV / FCF takeover valuation, they derive
an intrinsic value estimate of ~ $ 33 per share for WU at the end of 2020, offering ~ 72 % upside, or a 3.5 - year IRR of ~ 20 % including the dividend (3.7 % current yield).
MG Value is
the intrinsic value estimate calculated by the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham's formula from The Intelligent Investor.
I'm always amazed by investors who haven't even got a price target for a stock they own, let alone any kind of
intrinsic value estimate!?]
Recognising the current & potential growth trajectory here, we should also factor / average an appropriate earnings multiple into
our intrinsic value estimate: With earnings up 21 % & 70 % in the last two years, just about any multiple's justified... again, to be prudent, we'll limit ourselves to a 20.0 Price / Earnings ratio, based on a 123 cents adjusted diluted EPS H2 - 2015 run - rate:
Therefore, I suspect
my intrinsic value estimate wouldn't necessarily change very much at this point vs. my 2013/2014 price targets.
Understandably, a lot of investors consciously (or unconsciously) haircut
their intrinsic value estimate for stocks like this.
This buyback would result in GBP 28.7 p of cash / investments per share, a 37 % increase, and increase
my intrinsic value estimate by 58 % to GBP 49.7 p per share.
I prefer a conservative reserves - based approach to valuation, so this will actually reduce
my intrinsic value estimate for the moment — but in return the company receives a $ 20 million completion payment, and obviously there's substantial future value to be realized from 140 M of carry payments (plus another 20 M of contingent payments).
[How] is
intrinsic value estimated?
My $ 900-1000 / share
intrinsic value estimate was illustrative and certainly not something I believe should be reflected in the market price today or even in the next 12 - 24 months, given the near - term outlook for lower expected returns on the equity portfolio (and the low P / B multiple that market is applying given that forecast).
Not exact matches
«Williams» discovery was to project an
estimate that offers
intrinsic value and it is called the «Dividend Discount Model» which is still used today by professional investors on the institutional side of markets.»
During the quarter we sold our positions in Meitec, SAP and adidas as they approached or hit our
estimates of
intrinsic value.
Nevertheless, our discipline demands that we move on whenever price and our
estimate of
intrinsic value per share come together.
Very simplistically, we look to purchase equities selling cheaply relative to our
estimate of their
intrinsic value and to build out the portfolio with bonds that enhance income and reduce volatility.
So we might have 28 % upside here (based on the difference between current price and potential
estimated intrinsic value).
If you look at 14 % + upside (the difference between prevailing prices and the
estimated intrinsic value), 15 % + annual EPS growth, and a ~ 3 % yield, that adds up to over a 32 % total return for 2018 alone.
The reason I am not including the debt in any of the
estimates of
intrinsic value is because Dole, as a whole, now has total debt of $ 1.4 billion but will be able to pay off all of it if it chooses to after it receives the $ 1.7 billion from Itochu.
A recent valuation on the stock, via an Undervalued Dividend Growth Stock of the Week article, pegged the
estimated intrinsic value near $ 128.
What could be 10 % upside (if the price catches up to
estimated intrinsic value), a near - term forecast for 10 % compound annual EPS growth, and a 3 % yield adds up to what could be a 23 % total return over the next year!
Relative to investing, we
value investors look to identify equities selling for prices well below our
estimate of their
intrinsic value because history has taught us that the prices of these securities will converge toward their true worth.
Assuming a 10 % discount rate, a 13 % dividend growth rate for the next 10 years, and a long - term dividend growth rate of 8 %, an
estimate of
intrinsic value comes out to $ 74.07.
As
value investors, we patiently wait for the gap between a company's stock price and our
estimate of
intrinsic value to close, and over the past 12 months, the gaps have narrowed.
Anyone's calculation
intrinsic value necessarily comes up with a highly subjective figure that will change both as
estimates of future cash flows are revised and as interest rates move.
We used the proceeds to purchase names trading at a larger discount to our
estimate of
intrinsic value.
In this model, which was developed many decades ago by investors and is a common valuation method, you sum up all future
estimated dividends, discount them at an appropriate discount rate, and therefore receive an output for what the
intrinsic value of a share of this company is.
At the current price of $ 5.56, we believe the market has overly discounted the effects of the lower commodity price environment, giving us an opportunity to buy Glencore at a compelling discount to our
estimate of
intrinsic value.
GE is trading at a large discount to our
estimate of
intrinsic value, and we are glad to welcome it back to the portfolio.
- Applying discounted multiples (relative to precedent industry transactions) of 10.0 x and 9.0 x our 2019E EBITDA for the U.S. and International Networks segments, respectively, they derive an
estimate of
intrinsic value of $ 47 a share, representing over 80 % upside from current levels.
We're also introducing a longer term
intrinsic value (IV)
estimate of $ 20.55 for 2015.
At Oakmark, we gladly buy attractively - priced stocks, even when we don't have the foggiest idea as to when they may trade at our
estimate of
intrinsic value.
Although we have reduced our
estimate of SKY's
intrinsic value, we continue to remain shareholders, as we believe its standalone business is still trading at a large discount to the company's true worth.
Fiat Chrysler's share price remains below our
estimate of
intrinsic value, and we have immense trust in CEO Sergio Marchionne to maximize per share
value.
We are
value investors for many reasons, one of which is that establishing an
estimated intrinsic value provides an anchor or a solid point of reference from which the turbulence of markets can be viewed dispassionately.
We have adjusted our forecasts and
estimates of
intrinsic value to reflect this lower growth environment.
«The concept of a margin of safety is that an investor should purchase a security at a price sufficiently below his
estimate of its
intrinsic value that he will have protection against permanent loss even if his
estimate proves somewhat optimistic.»
All funds realized net gains throughout the year, as individual securities were sold as they approached our
estimate of
intrinsic value.
Intrinsic value is a present -
value estimate of the cash that can be taken out of a business during its remaining life.
Even with the strong performance during the quarter, both Intel and FedEx still sell at a discount to our
estimate of their
intrinsic values.
The biggest causes of our underperformance have been our heavy ownership of financials, especially banks, which have trailed the S&P 500, and our underweighting of healthcare stocks, many of which have exceeded our
estimates of their
intrinsic value.
Selling at a significant discount to our
estimate of
intrinsic value and at only a modest premium to tangible book
value, we think News Corp offers a compelling risk / reward profile.
Uncertainty about health care reform and a rotation away from levered companies have caused HCA's share price to sell below our
estimate of
intrinsic value, offering what we believe is an attractive entry point.
As we explained last quarter, we believe that these more cyclical businesses are appropriate for a conservative balanced fund given their large discounts to our
estimate of
intrinsic value, which provide a healthy margin of safety.
Low corn prices, challenges in
valuing their biotech pipeline and the difficulty of quantifying upside from precision agriculture have caused Monsanto to sell for materially less than our
estimate of its
intrinsic business
value.