Breaking the GDP report down, we see that in addition to overall modest strength in the economy (growth was still off from the fourth quarter's 2.9 %), the upturn was helped individually by positive contributions from nonresidential fixed investment, exports,
private inventory investment, federal government spending, and state and local government spending.
Since
negative inventory investment or «inventory runoffs» represent a good portion of the output losses in a recession, it follows that losses in real economic output (and by extension, employment), though not insignificant, are unlikely to be dire.
Inventory investment slowed more than previously estimated, subtracting more from growth in the current quarter, but putting the pace on a more sustainable path, leading to subtracting less or adding to growth going forward.
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As a result,
inventory investment contributed 0.73 percentage point to third - quarter GDP growth, after adding just over a tenth of a percentage point to growth in the prior period.
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The unsustainable third -
quarter inventory investment will likely subtract significantly from economic growth in the current quarter as that stockpile unwinds, but the inventory correction should wrap up early in the year.
Unfortunately, the boost came mainly
from inventory investment, which unwound the much needed correction in the advance estimate.
Stronger personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and less drag from weaker imports were offset by weaker growth
in inventory investment, exports and state and local government spending than in the initial estimates.
According to the BEA, the small decline in fourth quarter GDP primarily reflected «a slight downward revision to
private inventory investment».
On the negative side, business fixed - investment spending continued to disappoint, residential investment was weak and
inventory investment was a substantial drag on growth.
The gap between PDFP and GDP growth this quarter is more than accounted for by movements in
inventory investment.
During the fourth quarter, we observed much of the pressure on gross domestic investment as a reduction in housing and
inventory investment.
The U.S. economy unexpectedly maintained a brisk pace of growth in the third quarter as an increase in
inventory investment and a smaller trade deficit offset a hurricane - related slowdown in consumer spending and a decline in construction.
Canada's economy grew by 0.6 per cent at annual rates in the fourth quarter of 2012, with solid growth across most domestic components of GDP offset by a sharp reduction in the pace of
inventory investment.
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There is also concern about
the inventory investment necessary to have a good selection on hand for items that typically turn slower than foods, treats or soft goods.
Additionally, government spending and
inventory investment are expected to add to growth this year, while the dollar should continue to weigh heavily on net exports.
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The scale of larger retailers encourages suppliers to extend attractive payment terms to the retailers, which essentially finance the firms»
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Consumer and government spending as well as nonresidential and residential investment are expected to contribute to growth while net exports and
inventory investment will likely pose headwinds.»
According to the BEA, the small decline in fourth quarter GDP primarily reflected «a slight downward revision to private
inventory investment».
The main culprits in the slowdown were personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and
inventory investment.
The main contributors to the contraction were national defense spending and
inventory investment, each shaving roughly 1.3 percentage points from growth.
Downward revisions to
inventory investment and exports were offset by upward revisions to state and local government spending.
Declining growth in
inventory investment and weak nonresidential investment were the primary reasons.
The main factors were an upward revision to imports (which subtract from GDP growth) and a downward revision to
inventory investment.
The deceleration was the result of slowing
inventory investment and declining non-residential fixed investment.