Not exact matches
The rollercoaster ride
in oil prices over the past three years may be old hat to
investors familiar with the commodity's
historical sensitivity to macro events (see chart below), but oil price volatility is by no means endemic and several factors are now lining up to suggest a calmer
period for crude may lie ahead.
The value of issuance by asset - backed vehicles was 25 per cent below the value seen
in the corresponding
period of 2004 but
investor demand for mortgage - backed securities remains strong, as evidenced by the fact that primary spreads remain close to their
historical lows.
An examination of the
historical performance of fixed income
in the
periods during and immediately following a rate rise has revealed a potentially more favorable outlook for
investors who were committed to the long - term role that bonds typically play
in a portfolio.
Last week I ran a post about the median stock trading at an all - time high valuation that included this chart from «Millennial
Investor» Patrick O'Shaughnessy showing
historical EBITDA yields for all stocks
in the universe greater than $ 200 million market capitalization from the
period 1971 to date:
It drives me crazy that most experts
in this field were advising
investors to go with high stock allocations
in 2000, when the P / E10 value was so high that a regression analysis of the
historical return data showed that the most likely 10 - year annualized return on stocks was a negative 1 percent real and when Treasury Inflation - Protected Bonds were offering a risk - free return of 4 percent real for time -
periods of up to 30 years.
In contrast, comparing current valuation levels to
historical averages may give
investors a misleading sense about the «support» provided by valuations, because the majority of those
historical periods featured a dramatically different back - drop.