We also use five - member ensembles of simulations with greenhouse gas changes only (GHG), volcanic and solar
irradiance changes only (NAT), and aerosol changes only (AER) over the period 1850 — 2010.»
Not exact matches
Critics of this result might argue that the solar forcing in these experiments is
only based on the estimated
change in total
irradiance, which might be an underestimate, or that does not include potential indirect amplifying effects (via an ozone response to UV
changes, or galactic cosmic rays affecting clouds).
Now, as far as solar forcing is concerned, we
only know for sure about
changes in direct measurable solar
irradiance, but not about other forcing mechanisms.
Forced
changes in
irradiance are not
only affected by
changing concentrations of constituents or other external sources, but also by
changes in water vapor and clouds.
Of course, the same could be said for global temperature, where a half degree C temperature increase on an absolute Kelvin scale would
only be about 0.17 %, so an argument can be made that on a percentage basis, this
change in
irradiance is about the same order of magnitude as our
change in temperature.
Direct solar
irradiance is very likely not the
only mechanism by which the
changes in solar activity influence our climate.
So, to my previous post, it looks like AR5 will give a bit more coverage to other sources of solar forcing beside
only direct solar
irradiance — it least in its chapter covering «radiative forcing» if not in the chapter on «understanding and attributing climate
change» (which is being written by a different group).
I came to think of solar radiation as being the ultimate (and
only) external forcing of the climate system, which, except for the orbital seasonal
changes and the 11 - year sunspot cycle, has been essentially constant over the past several decades of precision solar
irradiance monitoring.
With regard to proxy studies, same basic questions, are these direct or passive correlations, what evidence that tree ring core thickness depends
only on temperature (what about precipitation, cloud cover, volcanic activity, sea surface temperatue
changes, sea current
changes, solar
irradiance changes, cloud cover, etc.) How are these variables accounted for when analysis of ice cores is completed, or for that matter when computer models, and / or proxy studies are completed.
Solar
irradiance measurements from 1978 to 2013 will have sampled
only three 11 - year
irradiance cycles, which alone is insufficient time to determine whether long - term
irradiance trends occur or to quantify the broad range of
irradiance changes possible in activity cycles of varying strength.