«According to PMOD at the World Radiation Center there has been no increase in solar
irradiance since at least 1978 when satellite observations began.
We have also been able to compute total solar
irradiance since the Maunder minimum and further into the past throughout the whole Holocene.
According to the Max Planck Institute, where this work is being done, there has been no increase in solar
irradiance since around 1940.
«In comparison, changes in solar
irradiance since 1750 are estimated to have caused a small radiative forcing of +0.12 [+0.06 to +0.30] W / m2, which is less than half the estimate given in the TAR.»
[11] Wang, Y. - M.; Lean, J. L.; Sheeley, N. R., Jr. 2005 Modeling the Sun's Magnetic Field and
Irradiance since 1713 The Astrophysical Journal, 625:522 - 538, 2005 May 20) DOI: 10.1086 / 429689 http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2005ApJ…625..522W
1995: Reconstruction of solar
irradiance since A.D. 1600: implications for climate change.
Of note, consider how closely the Stoffel et al. (2015) NH reconstruction resembles the trends in total solar
irradiance since the 18th century, including almost identical timings and amplitudes for the 20th century.
I'm not the most qualified to make a judgment on their scientific work, but the two authors seem eager to attribute those measurments to an increase of solar
irradiance since 1980, though no serious discussion about the other possible mechanisms (like atmospheric changes) is made in the paper.
Of these forcings, the only non-human-induced forcing that produces warming of the surface temperature is the estimated long - term increase by 0.3 W / m2 of solar
irradiance since 1750.
Not exact matches
In 1995, Judith L. Lean of the Naval Research Laboratory and David Rind of NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies made correlations between solar
irradiance and the temperature curve
since 1610.
Of the 0.55 degree Celsius warming
since 1860, 0.36 degrees Celsius have occurred
since 1970, and the solar
irradiance can only account for less than a third of this rise.
«Even for a reconstruction with high variability in total
irradiance, solar forcing contributed only about 0.07 °C (0.03 - 0.13 °C) to the warming
since 1950.»
Solar
irradiance has been measured from satellites
since the late 1970s (Fig. 7).
Note that the IPCC concentrates on Solar
Irradiance, but ignores other solar energies such as that associated with Solar Magnetic Flux that has more than doubled
since 1900.
We only have direct observations of total solar
irradiance (TSI)
since the beginning of the satellite era and substantial evidence for variations in the level of solar activity (from cosmogenic isotopes or sunspot records) in the past.
Because of the variations of sunspots and faculae on the sun's surface, the total solar
irradiance (TSI), also called the solar constant, varies on a roughly 11 - year cycle by about 0.07 %, which has been measured by orbiting satellites
since 1978 [Lean, 1987, 1991; Wilson et al., 1981].
Since Milankovitch factors are excluded as small, BUT they do exist and by ignoring them you are introducing an increasing underestimation of the incoming solar radiation (& its impact on solar
irradiance and on water vapor etc feedbacks), then why is there not an uncertainty estimate for this or better yet an actual estimate of what the under estimation is?
(
since HansenSato 2002 does NOT give an uncertainty factor for orbital factors, just a 1951 - 2000 uncertainty of zero for solar
irradiance)
Maybe a dumb question BUT
since the «hockey stick» shows up in the sunspot curves in 20 above, in the Solanski 2002 Jeffreys lecture solar
irradiance curves, in Be-10 curves etc etc, indicating a driving solar forcing for the hockey stick, then why doesn't it show up in the GCM models for natural only (see Is modelling science http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=100) Surely the volcanic forcings from one 1991 volcano can't dominate the sun?
The solar
irradiance forcing is given as 0.4 + / - 0.2 W / m2
since 1850 (Fig 18, panel 1, Hansen et al, 2002 — note the the zero was not an uncertainty in panel 2, it was just what was put in that version of the model — i.e. they did not change solar then).
More important, it is to be noticed this increase of solar
irradiance as not been measured by anyone yet (despite the 24/7 observations of the solar activity
since long before 1980).
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2005/08/did-the-sun-hit-record-highs-over-the-last-few-decades/ «Regardless of any discussion about solar
irradiance in past centuries, the sunspot record and neutron monitor data (which can be compared with radionuclide records) show that solar activity has not increased
since the 1950s and is therefore unlikely to be able to explain the recent warming.»
[Response: You don't expect it to be completely the same
since there are differences: GHGs cause stratospheric cooling, solar
irradiance increases cause warming there — GHGs have a very even effect across latitudes, solar is stronger in the tropics.
The IPCC 2001 report states «Several recent reconstructions estimate that variations in solar
irradiance give rise to a forcing at the Earth's surface of about 0.6 to 0.7 Wm - 2
since the Maunder Minimum and about half this over the 20th century... All reconstructions indicate that the direct effect of variations in solar forcing over the 20th century was about 20 to 25 % of the change in forcing due to increases in the well - mixed greenhouse gases.»
So is total solar
irradiance (TSI) and we have continuous measurement of TSI from weather satellites
since late 1978 as shown on this graph from the World Radiation Centre in Davos.
is total solar
irradiance (TSI) and we have continuous measurement of TSI from weather satellites
since late 1978 as
Since the solar UV
irradiance has no long - term trend, the mechanism for the secular change of TSI must differ from the effect of surface magnetism, as manifested by sunspots, faculae, and network which indeed explain well the intra-cycle variability of both total and spectral
irradiance.
The temperature trend
since 1998 is understood to result from natural climate variability, combined with reduced solar
irradiance during the downward part of the solar cycle after its 2001 maximum.
The solar
irradiance is up about 3 watts / m ^ 2
since 1700, but this number has to be divided by 4 and multiplied by (1 - albedo) = 0.7 of the earth to cast it into an average signal striking the earth.
Specifically, the methodology of polynomial cointegration is used to test AGW
since during the observation period (1880 — 2007) global temperature and solar
irradiance are stationary in 1st differences whereas greenhouse gases and aerosol forcings are stationary in 2nd differences.
«A peer - reviewed paper [Krivova et al.] published in the Journal of Geophysical Research finds that reconstructions of total solar
irradiance (TSI) show a significant increase
since the Maunder minimum in the 1600's during the Little Ice Age and shows further increases over the 19th and 20th centuries... Use of the Stefan - Boltzmann equation indicates that a 1.25 W / m2 increase in solar activity could account for an approximate.44 C global temperature increase... A significant new finding is that portions of the more energetic ultraviolet region of the solar spectrum increased by almost 50 % over the 400 years
since the Maunder minimum... This is highly significant because the UV portion of the solar spectrum is the most important for heating of the oceans due to the greatest penetration beyond the surface and highest energy levels.
published in the Journal of Geophysical Research finds that reconstructions of total solar
irradiance (TSI) show a significant increase
since the Maunder minimum in the 1600's during the Little Ice Age and shows further increases over the 19th and 20th centuries... Use of the Stefan - Boltzmann equation indicates that a 1.25 W / m2 increase in solar activity could account for an approximate.44 C global temperature increase... A significant new finding is that portions of the more energetic ultraviolet region of the solar spectrum increased by almost 50 % over the 400 years
since the Maunder minimum... This is highly significant because the UV portion of the solar spectrum is the most important for heating of the oceans due to the greatest penetration beyond the surface and highest energy levels.
«
Since irradiance variations are apparently minimal, changes in the Earth's climate that seem to be associated with changes in the level of solar activity — the Maunder Minimum and the Little Ice age for example — would then seem to be due to terrestrial responses to more subtle changes in the Sun's spectrum of radiative output.
«This is an important result
since there has been debate about the causes of recent tropical glacial recession — for example, whether it is due to temperature, precipitation, humidity, solar
irradiance or other factors,» said Dr. Kelly in the press release
Why don't you read your National Geograhic article a little more closely - Your man, Abdussamatov claims Mars is warming now (last 3 summers) but later in the article he says (mostly correctly) that solar
irradiance has been going down
since 1990.
If the sun were the dominant forcing, the planet would have a negative energy balance in 2005 — 2010, when solar
irradiance was at its lowest level in the period of accurate data, i.e.,
since the 1970s [64], [71].
Solar
irradiance, for example, has neither been significantly up nor down, and most climate scientists argue that solar
irradiance is not a factor at all in the climate (to which I disagree, as a conclusion,
since I think they define it too narrowly).
This is noteworthy
since nighttime on Venus lasts approximately 122 Earth days, ie., one side of Venus is in darkness for about 122 days and not receiving Solar
irradiance and yet this dark side is as warm as the sunlit side!
Daily measurements of the solar spectrum between 0.2 µm and 2.4 µm, made by the Spectral
Irradiance Monitor (SIM) instrument on the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) satellite3
since April 2004, have revealed4 that over this declining phase of the solar cycle there was a four to six times larger decline in ultraviolet than would have been predicted on the basis of our previous understanding.
This dataset is an intercalibration of
irradiance measurements from a fleet of geostationary and polar orbiting weather satellites, operational
since 1983.
Total solar
irradiance (TSI) has been measured with space - based instruments
since 1978.
[A] Total solar
irradiance (TSI) reconstruction by Hoyt and Schatten (1993)(red) rescaled on the ACRIM record (Willson and Mordvinov 2003)(
since 1981)(blue) vs. the updated Lean model (Wang et al. 2005; Kopp et al. 2007)(green).
Estimated increases
since 1675 are 0.7 %, 0.2 % and 0.07 % in broad ultraviolet, visible / near infrared and infrared spectral bands, with a total
irradiance increase of 0.2 %.
New reconstructions of spectral
irradiance are developed
since 1600 with absolute scales traceable to space - based observations.
``... A 12 - year low in solar «
irradiance»: Careful measurements by several NASA spacecraft show that the sun's brightness has dropped by 0.02 % at visible wavelengths and a whopping 6 % at extreme UV wavelengths
since the solar minimum of 1996....
Since a basic North American continental experiment was already successfully executed on the few post 911 clear sky days, I posit that simple solar L1
irradiance modification experiments could be designed to test the hypothesis without any serious side effects (certainly without moving an asteroid) to successfully obtain the desired data to enable more permanent temporary solutions, and in order to give us more time to develop the necessary carbon dioxide removal and sequestration schemes — aka carbon containing products).
Natural Variability Doesn't Account for Observed Temperature Increase In it's press release announcement, NASA points out that while there are other factors than greenhouse gases contributing to the amount of warming observed — changes in the sun's
irradiance, oscillations of sea surface temperatures in the tropics, changes in aerosol levels in the atmosphere — these factors are not sufficient to account for the temperature increases observed
since 1880.
SPM - 3) took lace
since 2000 despite a decline in solar
irradiance [9].
Stable detectors placed aboard satellites above the Earth's atmosphere have been precisely monitoring the Sun's total
irradiance of the Earth
since 1978, providing conclusive evidence for small variations in the solar constant.
Earth's radiation budget parameters have, like solar
irradiance, been measured
since 1978 via instruments onboard seven different spacecraft.