The term
"irrational exuberance" is a popular economic concept that was first coined by former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan in 1996.
Full definition
Note how ORCL's price departed markedly from either the orange - line or blue - line measures of true value in the period
of irrational exuberance of 1998 - 2000, then plunged back down in the tech bubble's crash from 2000 - 2002.
Jason Kirby of Maclean's brilliantly described the Bank of Canada's use of behavioural economics to warn of
irrational exuberance in Vancouver and Toronto.
He actually used the term in the following rhetorical question he posed to his audience, «But how do we know
when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values, which then become subject to unexpected and prolonged contractions as they have in Japan over the past decade?»
Certainly this would explain the fact that the market cycle is characterized
by irrational exuberance at its peaks and irrational pessimism at its troughs.
Likewise, a shift
from irrational exuberance in the local economy to rational optimism would be a healthy change,» according to Paragon.
We should make note that Greenspan followed his comment
about irrational exuberance by quickly adding that central bankers need not be concerned with the collapse of an asset bubble if it does not impair the real economy.
«Looking at recent frenzy over virtual currencies worldwide, I worry whether there is some dose of
irrational exuberance there,» Bank of Korea Governor Lee Ju - yeol said over a year - end event with reporters on Wednesday night.
BMO Financial Group Vice-Chair and APF Canada Director Kevin Lynch conjures Allan Greenspan and warns
against irrational exuberance in his 2018 «Letter from Davos» that originally appeared in Policy magazine's March / April issue.
It has often been couched in terms of using monetary policy to prevent or deflate asset - price bubbles — perhaps to
dampen irrational exuberance in stock markets.
The most common complaint I've heard since Hugh published his first findings is that somehow they represent what Alan Greenspan would have
called irrational exuberance.
The market can stay irrational for long periods of time, and investors have
shown irrational exuberance (as Shiller puts it) many times before, and this can repeat itself over and over again.
Unfortunately, it's usually much harder to
spot irrational exuberance (or excessive fear at the trough) than during the tech boom.
So they're still applying the last century's failed investing model of «buying stocks at the top
via irrational exuberance, and then selling them at the bottom via fear and panic.»
So we've been trying to tease out whether there are rational explanations for our current situation, or
whether irrational exuberance is the only justification.
«Many small investors still typically sell at the bottom and buy in during periods that border
on irrational exuberance.»
[H] ow do we know
when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values, which then become subject to unexpected and prolonged contractions...?
But since we have seen markets sometimes overwhelmed
by irrational exuberance or pessimism, we believe that an individual CEO can be unfairly blamed or credited for what is in fact a broad shift in valuation of many similar companies.
Our point is that
as irrational exuberance has given way to overblown trepidation, stocks have become underappreciated and underutilized.
«A record high percentage of investors say equities are overvalued yet cash levels are simultaneously falling, an indicator of
irrational exuberance,» he added.
«This is a consequence of
irrational exuberance and the fact that some brokers so far are not allowing short trades in the future,» Hansen said by email.
To make it, entrepreneurs need to have tenacity and
some irrational exuberance.
A lack of fear leads to «
irrational exuberance,» when investors pay no attention to the fundamentals of their investment decisions.
«As Robert Shiller's new 2009 preface to his prescient classic on behavioral economics and market volatility asserts,
the irrational exuberance of the stock and housing markets «has been ended by an economic crisis of a magnitude not seen since the Great Depression of the 1930s.
There was no mention of bubbles or
irrational exuberance, suggesting the central bank continues to believe that the situation is under control.
By one closely watched measure of valuation, Alan Greenspan's
irrational exuberance warning should be keeping investors near the sell button.
South Korea's central bank chief on Wednesday warned of «
irrational exuberance» in trading of virtual coins, which have risen dramatically in value this year amid frenzied speculation.
They panic and sell when prices drop, then fall victim to what Alan Greenspan in 1996 called «
irrational exuberance» and buy when prices soar.