However, internal climate variability creates
irreducible uncertainty in the projected future trends in snow resource potential, with about 90 % of snow - sensitive basins showing potential for either increases or decreases over the near - term decades.
Not exact matches
Some
uncertainty is
irreducible and you deal with that
in all other aspects of your life.
They start with a very large
uncertainty in initial and boundary conditions and end with an «
irreducible imprecision'that is literally off the charts.
Likewise, the current and / or
irreducible uncertainty regarding paleoclimate reconstructions using treerings, including things like comparing individual years to previous centuries, means we can be pretty certain that it is NOT possible to say 1998 was the warmest year
in a millenium, as one famous scientist is wont to do.
disregards situations
in which
uncertainty is
irreducible.
In a complex system with
irreducible Uncertainty, isn't some sort of model likely to provide the best way to judge such methods?
There are intrinsic
uncertainties in climate models that are collectively known as
irreducible imprecision.
Given
uncertainties in inputs and coupling and the nature of the governing equations there is no single deterministic solution and the limits of «
irreducible imprecision» remain unknown.
There will always be
irreducible uncertainty and a continuum of risk from some would say beneficial — I am sure I am not interested
in quibbling about minutiae — to catastrophic.
It is characterized by multiple intersecting and uncertain future hazards to natural and human systems, that are expected to unfold over a very large range of spatial and temporal scales, and whose probabilities may be difficult, or
in some cases impossible, to quantify precisely (because of intrinsic and / or
irreducible uncertainties about the future).
But many of the
uncertainties in the climate change problem are
irreducible (see my original
uncertainty monster post), and not acting is a decision also.
«This finding reinforces not only that climate policies will necessarily be made
in the face of deep,
irreducible uncertainties,» says Roger Pielke, a climate policy expert at the University of Colorado at Boulder, US.