Model forecasts are verified against model control simulations (perfect model experiments), thus overcoming to some extent
issues of uncertainties in the observations and / or model parameterizations.
I once heard John Holdren (President Obama's science advisor) speak on
the issue of uncertainty in climate predictions.
I return to
the issue of the uncertainties in the last point below.c
A highly multi-disciplinary meeting discussing how scientists from a range of disciplines handle
the issue of uncertainty in their area of specialisation: i.e. how uncertainty can be characterised, estimated, predicted and communicated.
Not exact matches
In December
of 1953, the first
issue hit newsstands, its cover undated since publication
of a second
issue was such an
uncertainty.
Such risks,
uncertainties and other factors include, without limitation: (1) the effect
of economic conditions
in the industries and markets
in which United Technologies and Rockwell Collins operate
in the U.S. and globally and any changes therein, including financial market conditions, fluctuations
in commodity prices, interest rates and foreign currency exchange rates, levels
of end market demand
in construction and
in both the commercial and defense segments
of the aerospace industry, levels
of air travel, financial condition
of commercial airlines, the impact
of weather conditions and natural disasters and the financial condition
of our customers and suppliers; (2) challenges
in the development, production, delivery, support, performance and realization
of the anticipated benefits
of advanced technologies and new products and services; (3) the scope, nature, impact or timing
of acquisition and divestiture or restructuring activity, including the pending acquisition
of Rockwell Collins, including among other things integration
of acquired businesses into United Technologies» existing businesses and realization
of synergies and opportunities for growth and innovation; (4) future timing and levels
of indebtedness, including indebtedness expected to be incurred by United Technologies
in connection with the pending Rockwell Collins acquisition, and capital spending and research and development spending, including
in connection with the pending Rockwell Collins acquisition; (5) future availability
of credit and factors that may affect such availability, including credit market conditions and our capital structure; (6) the timing and scope
of future repurchases
of United Technologies» common stock, which may be suspended at any time due to various factors, including market conditions and the level
of other investing activities and uses
of cash, including
in connection with the proposed acquisition
of Rockwell; (7) delays and disruption
in delivery
of materials and services from suppliers; (8) company and customer - directed cost reduction efforts and restructuring costs and savings and other consequences thereof; (9) new business and investment opportunities; (10) our ability to realize the intended benefits
of organizational changes; (11) the anticipated benefits
of diversification and balance
of operations across product lines, regions and industries; (12) the outcome
of legal proceedings, investigations and other contingencies; (13) pension plan assumptions and future contributions; (14) the impact
of the negotiation
of collective bargaining agreements and labor disputes; (15) the effect
of changes
in political conditions
in the U.S. and other countries
in which United Technologies and Rockwell Collins operate, including the effect
of changes
in U.S. trade policies or the U.K.'s pending withdrawal from the EU, on general market conditions, global trade policies and currency exchange rates
in the near term and beyond; (16) the effect
of changes
in tax (including U.S. tax reform enacted on December 22, 2017, which is commonly referred to as the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act
of 2017), environmental, regulatory (including among other things import / export) and other laws and regulations
in the U.S. and other countries
in which United Technologies and Rockwell Collins operate; (17) the ability
of United Technologies and Rockwell Collins to receive the required regulatory approvals (and the risk that such approvals may result
in the imposition
of conditions that could adversely affect the combined company or the expected benefits
of the merger) and to satisfy the other conditions to the closing
of the pending acquisition on a timely basis or at all; (18) the occurrence
of events that may give rise to a right
of one or both
of United Technologies or Rockwell Collins to terminate the merger agreement, including
in circumstances that might require Rockwell Collins to pay a termination fee
of $ 695 million to United Technologies or $ 50 million
of expense reimbursement; (19) negative effects
of the announcement or the completion
of the merger on the market price
of United Technologies» and / or Rockwell Collins» common stock and / or on their respective financial performance; (20) risks related to Rockwell Collins and United Technologies being restricted
in their operation
of their businesses while the merger agreement is
in effect; (21) risks relating to the value
of the United Technologies» shares to be
issued in connection with the pending Rockwell acquisition, significant merger costs and / or unknown liabilities; (22) risks associated with third party contracts containing consent and / or other provisions that may be triggered by the Rockwell merger agreement; (23) risks associated with merger - related litigation or appraisal proceedings; and (24) the ability
of United Technologies and Rockwell Collins, or the combined company, to retain and hire key personnel.
Actual results, including with respect to our targets and prospects, could differ materially due to a number
of factors, including the risk that we may not obtain sufficient orders to achieve our targeted revenues; price competition
in key markets; the risk that we or our channel partners are not able to develop and expand customer bases and accurately anticipate demand from end customers, which can result
in increased inventory and reduced orders as we experience wide fluctuations
in supply and demand; the risk that our commercial Lighting Products results will continue to suffer if new
issues arise regarding
issues related to product quality for this business; the risk that we may experience production difficulties that preclude us from shipping sufficient quantities to meet customer orders or that result
in higher production costs and lower margins; our ability to lower costs; the risk that our results will suffer if we are unable to balance fluctuations
in customer demand and capacity, including bringing on additional capacity on a timely basis to meet customer demand; the risk that longer manufacturing lead times may cause customers to fulfill their orders with a competitor's products instead; the risk that the economic and political
uncertainty caused by the proposed tariffs by the United States on Chinese goods, and any corresponding Chinese tariffs
in response, may negatively impact demand for our products; product mix; risks associated with the ramp - up
of production
of our new products, and our entry into new business channels different from those
in which we have historically operated; the risk that customers do not maintain their favorable perception
of our brand and products, resulting
in lower demand for our products; the risk that our products fail to perform or fail to meet customer requirements or expectations, resulting
in significant additional costs, including costs associated with warranty returns or the potential recall
of our products; ongoing
uncertainty in global economic conditions, infrastructure development or customer demand that could negatively affect product demand, collectability
of receivables and other related matters as consumers and businesses may defer purchases or payments, or default on payments; risks resulting from the concentration
of our business among few customers, including the risk that customers may reduce or cancel orders or fail to honor purchase commitments; the risk that we are not able to enter into acceptable contractual arrangements with the significant customers
of the acquired Infineon RF Power business or otherwise not fully realize anticipated benefits
of the transaction; the risk that retail customers may alter promotional pricing, increase promotion
of a competitor's products over our products or reduce their inventory levels, all
of which could negatively affect product demand; the risk that our investments may experience periods
of significant stock price volatility causing us to recognize fair value losses on our investment; the risk posed by managing an increasingly complex supply chain that has the ability to supply a sufficient quantity
of raw materials, subsystems and finished products with the required specifications and quality; the risk we may be required to record a significant charge to earnings if our goodwill or amortizable assets become impaired; risks relating to confidential information theft or misuse, including through cyber-attacks or cyber intrusion; our ability to complete development and commercialization
of products under development, such as our pipeline
of Wolfspeed products, improved LED chips, LED components, and LED lighting products risks related to our multi-year warranty periods for LED lighting products; risks associated with acquisitions, divestitures, joint ventures or investments generally; the rapid development
of new technology and competing products that may impair demand or render our products obsolete; the potential lack
of customer acceptance for our products; risks associated with ongoing litigation; and other factors discussed
in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), including our report on Form 10 - K for the fiscal year ended June 25, 2017, and subsequent reports filed with the SEC.
«The size and volatility
in this (is similar to) small cap
issues, which speaks to
uncertainty,» said Howard Silverblatt
of S&P Dow Jones Indices.
Important factors that could cause our actual results and financial condition to differ materially from those indicated
in the forward - looking statements include, among others, the following: our ability to successfully and profitably market our products and services; the acceptance
of our products and services by patients and healthcare providers; our ability to meet demand for our products and services; the willingness
of health insurance companies and other payers to cover Cologuard and adequately reimburse us for our performance
of the Cologuard test; the amount and nature
of competition from other cancer screening and diagnostic products and services; the effects
of the adoption, modification or repeal
of any healthcare reform law, rule, order, interpretation or policy; the effects
of changes
in pricing, coverage and reimbursement for our products and services, including without limitation as a result
of the Protecting Access to Medicare Act
of 2014; recommendations, guidelines and quality metrics
issued by various organizations such as the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force, the American Cancer Society, and the National Committee for Quality Assurance regarding cancer screening or our products and services; our ability to successfully develop new products and services; our success establishing and maintaining collaborative, licensing and supplier arrangements; our ability to maintain regulatory approvals and comply with applicable regulations; and the other risks and
uncertainties described
in the Risk Factors and
in Management's Discussion and Analysis
of Financial Condition and Results
of Operations sections
of our most recently filed Annual Report on Form 10 - K and our subsequently filed Quarterly Reports on Form 10 - Q.
Uncertainty about the economy and fiscal
issues are expected to weigh on the franchise sector
in 2013, but it is still expected to outpace other industries
in terms
of growth, according to the report.
To explain why this big gap
in valuations isn't a sign
of over-valuation, the CAPE's critics cite lots
of individual
issues in these nations that make them riskier bets than the U.S., such as looming Brexit
in the U.K. and Germany's
uncertainty regarding future leadership.
On the other hand, commenters supporting the proposed 60 - day delay or a longer or indefinite delay argued that such delay would be appropriate, because it would provide sufficient time for the Department to complete its review
of the Rule and PTEs
in conformance with the President's Memorandum without
issuing a series
of extensions that could create market frictions due to
uncertainty regarding whether the Department would ultimately leave the Rule
in place, revise it, or rescind it.
Given these positive surprises, and because monetary policy must be forward - looking to achieve our inflation target, Governing Council's discussions focused on three main
issues: first, the extent to which recent strength is signalling stronger economic momentum
in Canada and globally; second, how heightened levels
of uncertainty, particularly about US tax and trade policies, should be incorporated
in our outlook; and third, how much excess capacity the economy currently has, and the growth rate
of potential output going forward.
Of course, there is no shortage of fundamental issues to worry about: another downgrade to the outlook for global growth, uncertainty about the economic transition in China, the pace of normalization in the United States, worries about Europe, worries about Japan, just to cite a fe
Of course, there is no shortage
of fundamental issues to worry about: another downgrade to the outlook for global growth, uncertainty about the economic transition in China, the pace of normalization in the United States, worries about Europe, worries about Japan, just to cite a fe
of fundamental
issues to worry about: another downgrade to the outlook for global growth,
uncertainty about the economic transition
in China, the pace
of normalization in the United States, worries about Europe, worries about Japan, just to cite a fe
of normalization
in the United States, worries about Europe, worries about Japan, just to cite a few.
While the benefits
of distributed ledgers have been much discussed, Bain concluded that actual tools using blockchain for international payments and trade finance remain
in their early stages as banks remain challenged by scaling the technology, along with
uncertainties surrounding digital currencies and privacy
issues.
One source
of uncertainty and frustration
in Canada and Mexico is that the Trump administration has not yet made concrete proposals on the most contentious
issues — although these may be coming at the fourth round
in Washington.
«Businesses are continuing to hire to meet demand, but
issues like access to labour, Brexit negotiations and political
uncertainty are creating nervousness,» said Kevin Green, chief executive
of the Recruitment & Employment Confederation
in a statement upon the release
of its survey Wednesday.
Uncertainty about labour market reforms, the adequacy
of pension systems and future economic conditions may also be discouraging consumers from spending, especially
in Germany where these
issues have received much publicity.
High debt - to - GDP (gross domestic product) ratios persisted globally, cracks appeared
in corporate credit markets and geopolitical
issues created a continued backdrop
of uncertainty.
Examples
of these risks,
uncertainties and other factors include, but are not limited to the impact
of: adverse general economic and related factors, such as fluctuating or increasing levels
of unemployment, underemployment and the volatility
of fuel prices, declines
in the securities and real estate markets, and perceptions
of these conditions that decrease the level
of disposable income
of consumers or consumer confidence; adverse events impacting the security
of travel, such as terrorist acts, armed conflict and threats thereof, acts
of piracy, and other international events; the risks and increased costs associated with operating internationally; our expansion into and investments
in new markets; breaches
in data security or other disturbances to our information technology and other networks; the spread
of epidemics and viral outbreaks; adverse incidents involving cruise ships; changes
in fuel prices and / or other cruise operating costs; any impairment
of our tradenames or goodwill; our hedging strategies; our inability to obtain adequate insurance coverage; our substantial indebtedness, including the ability to raise additional capital to fund our operations, and to generate the necessary amount
of cash to service our existing debt; restrictions
in the agreements governing our indebtedness that limit our flexibility
in operating our business; the significant portion
of our assets pledged as collateral under our existing debt agreements and the ability
of our creditors to accelerate the repayment
of our indebtedness; volatility and disruptions
in the global credit and financial markets, which may adversely affect our ability to borrow and could increase our counterparty credit risks, including those under our credit facilities, derivatives, contingent obligations, insurance contracts and new ship progress payment guarantees; fluctuations
in foreign currency exchange rates; overcapacity
in key markets or globally; our inability to recruit or retain qualified personnel or the loss
of key personnel; future changes relating to how external distribution channels sell and market our cruises; our reliance on third parties to provide hotel management services to certain ships and certain other services; delays
in our shipbuilding program and ship repairs, maintenance and refurbishments; future increases
in the price
of, or major changes or reduction
in, commercial airline services; seasonal variations
in passenger fare rates and occupancy levels at different times
of the year; our ability to keep pace with developments
in technology; amendments to our collective bargaining agreements for crew members and other employee relation
issues; the continued availability
of attractive port destinations; pending or threatened litigation, investigations and enforcement actions; changes involving the tax and environmental regulatory regimes
in which we operate; and other factors set forth under «Risk Factors»
in our most recently filed Annual Report on Form 10 - K and subsequent filings by the Company with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
I am
in mt mid 30's and
in many ways I have becomes wiser as the years have passed by... but also the realization
of uncertainty about a lot
of issues.
But despite intellectual challenges,
issues in his personal life and emotional swings, Lewis is ultimately remembered for his writings on faith: Even when it meant putting aside momentary feelings
of uncertainty: «Faith,
in the sense
in which I am here using the word, is the art
of holding on to things your reason has once accepted,
in spite
of your changing moods... That is why Faith is such a necessary virtue: unless you teach your moods «where they get off,» you can never be either a sound Christian or even a sound atheist.»
And again, this «victory» wasn't rooted
in an honest presentation and discussion
of the
issues; rather, it was the result
of voter
uncertainty about what the amendment entailed, how it defined cloning, and fear that, if it didn't pass, Missourians wouldn't have access to future stem - cell cures.
Let's see what happens with this, but with Brazil's financial
issues at the moment, it'd be a relief if a buyer was able to save the track and race from
uncertainty as it's one
of the most popular
in F1.
In addition, while the Rebels have the luxury
of a long coaching search, they have the pressing
issue of the new early signing day rule, which will see talent sign elsewhere as
uncertainty swirls around Ole Miss..
Adults often face certain signs
of uncertainty about their place
in life and
in their case the lack
of financial stability, personal
issues and...
«My reading is that with the
uncertainty about the outcome
of the election whether it be a hung parliament, whether it be a Tory majority or any
of that stuff, people actually tuned
in much more to local
issues.
The push, which advanced on Monday
in Albany with a Senate hearing on the
issue, comes as the IDC is facing pressure from the left for their coalition government with Senate Republicans
in the new era
of uncertainty for liberals under the Donald Trump administration.
Former Attorney General
issued a video on behalf
of Senate Democrats urging Americans to resist
in the time
of «fear and
uncertainty for so many people.»
However,
in view
of the current
uncertainty, including continued discussions with the Government on a range
of other
issues, all funding and work on the underground development will be delayed until these matters are concluded and a new timetable has been agreed.
The usual health warnings were
issued in the form
of statistical
uncertainty estimates, but these invitations to prudence were given less attention than they deserved by most consumers
of the numbers.
«The government needs to set out
in more detail how it will meet its target
of at least one - for - one replacement
of the sold homes, particularly given
issues such as the availability
of land, the capacity
of the building industry and the
uncertainty of income from council home sales.»
Former U.S. Attorney General Loretta Lynch
issued a video on behalf
of Senate Democrats urging Americans to resist
in the time
of «fear and
uncertainty for so many people.»
The governor's proposal would 1) prohibit state sales tax abatements unless a project is
in a specific industry eligible for Excelsior tax credits (think «bureaucracy» and «hurts small business» here...), 2) require additional approvals by the relevant Regional Economic Development Council (REDC) and Empire State Development (think «unnecessary oversight and delays» here...), and 3) shift the abatement
of state sales tax to a refund that might be
issued sometime down the road (think «
uncertainty» and «cashflow» here...).
He also hates
uncertainty and chaos, and a public pronouncement — however many details are left
in the air — is better than a cycle
of chatter and doubt about what the Legislature will look like
in 2015, what that might mean for the
issues he cares about and how that affects his promises to secure action on them.
In vacating her seat, which she has held since 2005, Arroyo creates uncertainty about who will represent her Bronx district, but also brings to the forefront a larger issue about political representation in New York City: the number of women in the Ci
In vacating her seat, which she has held since 2005, Arroyo creates
uncertainty about who will represent her Bronx district, but also brings to the forefront a larger
issue about political representation
in New York City: the number of women in the Ci
in New York City: the number
of women
in the Ci
in the City
►
In this week's issue of STM, Arthur Levine, senior vice chancellor for the health sciences and dean of the University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine in Pennsylvania, and 18 other U.S. academic medical center leaders wrote that «[u] nstable funding for biomedical research has created a hostile working environment that erodes the time available for investigators to conduct their research, discourages innovative high - risk science, threatens to drive established investigators out of U.S. academic biomedical research, and creates uncertainty for trainees and early - career investigator
In this week's
issue of STM, Arthur Levine, senior vice chancellor for the health sciences and dean
of the University
of Pittsburgh School
of Medicine
in Pennsylvania, and 18 other U.S. academic medical center leaders wrote that «[u] nstable funding for biomedical research has created a hostile working environment that erodes the time available for investigators to conduct their research, discourages innovative high - risk science, threatens to drive established investigators out of U.S. academic biomedical research, and creates uncertainty for trainees and early - career investigator
in Pennsylvania, and 18 other U.S. academic medical center leaders wrote that «[u] nstable funding for biomedical research has created a hostile working environment that erodes the time available for investigators to conduct their research, discourages innovative high - risk science, threatens to drive established investigators out
of U.S. academic biomedical research, and creates
uncertainty for trainees and early - career investigators.
Yet much
of the document
in fact focused on the debatable desirability
of the goals
of synthetic biology, and on the need to acknowledge the complexities and
uncertainties involved
in designing novel living organisms —
issues which concern many
of those working
in synthetic biology and which can and should be the subject
of open debate.
«The evolutionary consequences
of climate change are one
of our greatest areas
of uncertainty because empirical data addressing this
issue are extraordinarily rare; this study is a tremendous step forward
in our understanding
of how climate change can influence evolutionary process and ultimately species biodiversity,» said Ryan Kovach, a University
of Montana study co-author.
Freedman and her colleagues report
in this week's
issue of Nature that M100 is 56 million light years away, with an
uncertainty of 11 per cent.
In an editorial also published in the July 1 issue of Annals of Internal Medicine, Dr. George Sawaya and Dr. Vanessa Jacoby of the Department of Obstetrics, Gynecology and Reproductive Sciences at the University of California, San Francisco write, «The pelvic examination has held a prominent place in women's health for many decades and has come to be more of a ritual than an evidence - based practice... With the current state of evidence, clinicians who continue to offer the examination should at least be cognizant about the uncertainty of its benefits and its potential to cause harm through false - positive testing and the cascade of events it prompts.&raqu
In an editorial also published
in the July 1 issue of Annals of Internal Medicine, Dr. George Sawaya and Dr. Vanessa Jacoby of the Department of Obstetrics, Gynecology and Reproductive Sciences at the University of California, San Francisco write, «The pelvic examination has held a prominent place in women's health for many decades and has come to be more of a ritual than an evidence - based practice... With the current state of evidence, clinicians who continue to offer the examination should at least be cognizant about the uncertainty of its benefits and its potential to cause harm through false - positive testing and the cascade of events it prompts.&raqu
in the July 1
issue of Annals
of Internal Medicine, Dr. George Sawaya and Dr. Vanessa Jacoby
of the Department
of Obstetrics, Gynecology and Reproductive Sciences at the University
of California, San Francisco write, «The pelvic examination has held a prominent place
in women's health for many decades and has come to be more of a ritual than an evidence - based practice... With the current state of evidence, clinicians who continue to offer the examination should at least be cognizant about the uncertainty of its benefits and its potential to cause harm through false - positive testing and the cascade of events it prompts.&raqu
in women's health for many decades and has come to be more
of a ritual than an evidence - based practice... With the current state
of evidence, clinicians who continue to offer the examination should at least be cognizant about the
uncertainty of its benefits and its potential to cause harm through false - positive testing and the cascade
of events it prompts.»
The next meeting will be at the end
of this year and a statement
of the potential changes
in tropical cyclone activity, together with the degree
of uncertainty, will be
issued following that meeting.
The debate
in the media expresses far less
uncertainty in this
issue than is customary for this level
of scientific inquiry.
The Exeter and Greenpeace research team say there are «many questions and
uncertainties» around seabed mining, including legal
issues and the difficulties
of predicting the scale and extent
of impacts
in advance, and
of monitoring and regulating mining activity once it takes place
in the deep sea.
Yet much
uncertainty hangs on what are expected to be rancorous negotiations with the European Union, covering
issues such as the right
of foreign citizens to remain
in the United Kingdom and a possible exit bill from Brussels.
In view of the ongoing uncertainty about the integrity of the work reported in this paper, and after discussion with the lead author of the research article, Dr Paolo Macchiarini, we now issue an expression of concern about the paper, while reserving a final decision for when current investigations are complete
In view
of the ongoing
uncertainty about the integrity
of the work reported
in this paper, and after discussion with the lead author of the research article, Dr Paolo Macchiarini, we now issue an expression of concern about the paper, while reserving a final decision for when current investigations are complete
in this paper, and after discussion with the lead author
of the research article, Dr Paolo Macchiarini, we now
issue an expression
of concern about the paper, while reserving a final decision for when current investigations are completed.
Global mean temperatures averaged over land and ocean surfaces, from three different estimates, each
of which has been independently adjusted for various homogeneity
issues, are consistent within
uncertainty estimates over the period 1901 to 2005 and show similar rates
of increase
in recent decades.
Lewis makes a couple
of potentially interesting points, chief
of which concern the magnitude and
uncertainty in the aerosol forcing I used and the time period over which the calculation is done, and I address these
issues here.
[Response: A similar conclusion to the one cited by Gavin above was reached independently by a panel
of scientists (
of which I was a member) convened to report on these
issues by the National Academy
of Sciences last year, resulting
in the NAS report «Radiative Forcing
of Climate Change: Expanding the Concept and Addressing
Uncertainties (2005)».
Outstanding
issues in our understanding
of red giants include
uncertainties in the amount
of mass lost at the surface before helium ignition and the amount
of internal mixing from rotation and other processes.