Two fundamental tenets of the anthropogenic global warming narrative are (1) the globe is warming (i.e., it's not
just regional warming), and (2) the warming that has occurred since 1950 can be characterized as remarkable, unnatural, and largely unprecedented.
Not exact matches
Now, with
regional climates shifting as a result of global
warming, it is unclear
just how far — and how fast — organisms will need to travel to keep up with moving climates.
551: Jim Larson wrote: «Can we
just ignore them and work with global temperatures, or are there actually larger deviations from the norm at the
regional level in a
warming world?»
Re 9 wili — I know of a paper suggesting, as I recall, that enhanced «backradiation» (downward radiation reaching the surface emitted by the air / clouds) contributed more to Arctic amplification specifically in the cold part of the year (
just to be clear, backradiation should generally increase with any
warming (aside from greenhouse feedbacks) and more so with a
warming due to an increase in the greenhouse effect (including feedbacks like water vapor and, if positive, clouds, though
regional changes in water vapor and clouds can go against the global trend); otherwise it was always my understanding that the albedo feedback was key (while sea ice decreases so far have been more a summer phenomenon (when it would be
warmer to begin with), the heat capacity of the sea prevents much temperature response, but there is a greater build up of heat from the albedo feedback, and this is released in the cold part of the year when ice forms later or would have formed or would have been thicker; the seasonal effect of reduced winter snow cover decreasing at those latitudes which still recieve sunlight in the winter would not be so delayed).
Just as importantly, he says, the model helps to explain
regional trends that seem to defy the global
warming hiatus, including record - breaking heat in the United States last year, and the continued decline of Arctic sea ice.
I predict they will mutate the argument, and with a completely straight face — the effect of carbon dioxide will turn out to be «more complicated», scientists will rediscover that the molecule emits infra red too — and now rather than
just simple
warming, it will be responsible for «transforming
regional patterns», «shifting layers» and «wandering jet streams».
Steven Mosher, now that the new and improved HADCRUT4 with C&W kriging is available on Climate Explorer you can «see»
just how
regional «Global
Warming» really is.
Consequently, the next time a serious drought takes hold of some part of the world and the likes of Al Gore blame it on the «carbon footprints» of you and your family, ask them why
just the opposite of what their hypothesis suggests actually occurred over the course of the 20th century, i.e., why, when the earth
warmed - and at a rate and to a degree that they claim was unprecedented overthousands of years - the rate - of - occurrence of severe
regional droughts actually declined.»
To point out
just a couple of things: — oceans
warming slower (or cooling slower) than lands on long - time trends is absolutely normal, because water is more difficult both to
warm or to cool (I mean, we require both a bigger heat flow and more time); at the contrary, I see as a non-sense theory (made by some serrist, but don't know who) that oceans are storing up heat, and that suddenly they will release such heat as a positive feedback: or the water
warms than no heat can be considered ad «stored» (we have no phase change inside oceans, so no latent heat) or oceans begin to release heat but in the same time they have to cool (because they are losing heat); so, I don't feel strange that in last years land temperatures for some series (NCDC and GISS) can be heating up while oceans are slightly cooling, but I feel strange that they are heating up so much to reverse global trend from slightly negative / stable to slightly positive; but, in the end, all this is not an evidence that lands»
warming is led by UHI (but, this effect, I would not exclude it from having a small part in temperature trends for some
regional area, but
just small); both because, as writtend, it is normal to have waters
warming slower than lands, and because lands» temperatures are often measured in a not so precise way (despite they continue to give us a global uncertainity in TT values which is barely the instrumental's one)-- but, to point out, HadCRU and MSU of last years (I mean always 2002 - 2006) follow much better waters» temperatures trend; — metropolis and larger cities temperature trends actually show an increase in UHI effect, but I think the sites are few, and the covered area is very small worldwide, so the global effect is very poor (but it still can be sensible for
regional effects); but I would not run out a small
warming trend for airport measurements due mainly to three things: increasing jet planes traffic, enlarging airports (then more buildings and more asphalt — if you follow motor sports, or simply live in a town / city, you will know how easy they get very
warmer than air during day, and how much it can slow night - time cooling) and overall having airports nearer to cities (if not becoming an area inside the city after some decade of hurban growth, e.g. Milan - Linate); — I found no point about UHI in towns and villages; you will tell me they are not large cities; but, in comparison with 20-40-60 years ago when they were «countryside», many small towns and villages have become part of larger hurban areas (at least in Europe and Asia) so examining
just larger cities would not be enough in my opinion to get a full view of UHI effect (still remembering that it has a small global effect: we can say many matters are due to UHI instead of GW, maybe even that a small part of measured GW is due to UHI, and that GW measurements are not so precise to make us able to make good analisyses and predictions, but not that GW is due to UHI).
A (2) Modern
warming, glacier and sea ice recession, sea level rise, drought and hurricane intensities... are all occurring at unprecedentedly high and rapid rates, and the effects are globally synchronous (not
just regional)... and thus dangerous consequences to the global biosphere and human civilizations loom in the near future as a consequence of anthropogenic influences.
There is data from around the world that the Medieval
Warm period was global wand not
just regional to Greenland.
Note that
regional proxies, such as the oxygen - isotope temperature reconstructions from the Greenland Ice Core Project that record Dansgaard - Oeschger events, often indicate faster
regional rates of climate change than the overall global average for glacial - interglacial transitions,
just as today
warming is more pronounced in Arctic regions than in equatorial regions (Barnosky et al., 2003; Diffenbaugh and Field, 2013).
Note that I am not saying that
warming has not taken place
just that it is not global — BEST admits that 30 % of the stations have cooled and that is true of severla of therse long term stations — but that we should concentrate on finding a useful set of temperature trends in
regional and zonal areas that reflect the impacts of climate change, as for example the Sahel, and understand the true reasons without assuming carbon dioxide to be the culprit.
«Corrected average temperatures are a fine metric,» Oh, it's a fine metric,
just look at all they do to turn some minor
regional warming into a crisis.
If the author is already peddling denialism based on limited facts used out of context, and this new paper is published likely
just to be used as the latest red herring distraction in the global
warming argument by examining «Svalbard and Greenland temperature records» in a too limited time span without relevant context, which,
just in case some may not have noticed does not represent the region known as planet Earth, uses too short a time span in relation to mechanism outside of the examined region because it is in fact a
regional analysis; one is left with a reasonable conclusion that the paper is designed to be precisely what I suspect it is designed for, to be a red herring distraction in the argument between science and science denialism regarding global
warming.